Kentucky Contenders, Kentucky Derby Prep Race
2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders Highest Final Time Ratings Earned Recently
Highest Performance Figures Earned By Each Horse Coming Into the 2024 Kentucky Derby
150th Running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) | Saturday, May 4, 2024Â | Churchill Downs
Listed below are the 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders recent prep races where they earned their highest Final Time Rating. Today's Racing Digest's exclusive Final Time Rating (FNL RAT), which can be found in our unique performance projected race sheets, has proven to be a strong indicator in predicting the outcome of key races like the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
The Final Time Rating's was designed to help identify a horse's ability to finish strong or unleash a big closing kick when needed to overtake the leader down the final stretch. In 7 of the last 8 Kentucky Derby's the horse that had earned the highest FNL RAT in a recent prep race finished in the top 3 positions.
The Final Time Rating is one of the key figures our staff of expert handicappers rely on when handicapping classier races such as the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont or any other Triple Crown or Graded Stakes race.
Click the each horse's name in the chart below to be taken to the race details comparing past Kentucky Derby winners along with the race replay.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby Points Leader Board listed above show the highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT) each horse has earned in their past 2 starts.
The horse entering the Kentucky Derby with the highest Final Time Rating has finished in the top two 4 times and in-the-money 7 times in the past 8 Kentucky Derbys.
2023 Kentucky Derby Top 3 Highest Final Time Ratings finished in-the-money
1st | Mage | $32.42 Payout | FNL RAT = 144 (3rd highest FNL RAT)
2nd | Two Phil's | $10.44 Payout | FNL RAT = 155 (Top FNL RAT)
3rd | Angel of Empire| $4.70 Payout | FNL RAT = 152 (2nd Highest FNL RAT)
2022 Kentucky Derby Top 2 of 3 Highest Final Time Ratings finished in-the-money
1st | Rich Strike | $163.60 Payout | FNL RAT = 125 (Mid Range FNL RAT)
2nd | Epicenter | $7.40 Payout | FNL RAT = 150 (2nd Highest FNL RAT)
3rd | Zandon | $5.60 Payout | FNL RAT = 153 (Top FNL RAT)
2021 Kentucky Derby Winner | Medina Spirit | FNL RAT = 125 | $26.20 Win Payout (Disqualified)
2020 Kentucky Derby Top 2 Highest Final Time Ratings finished in the top 2
1st | Authentic | $18.80 Payout | FNL RAT = 150 ( 2nd Highest FNL RAT)
2nd | Tiz the Law | $3.40 Payout | FNL RAT = 156 (Top FNL RAT)
3rd | Mr. Big News | $16.80 Payout | FNL RAT = 120 (Mid Range FNL RAT)
2019 Winner | Country House | FNL RAT =Â | $132.40 Win Payout
1st | Country House | $132.40 Payout | FNL RAT = 128 ( Low to Mid Range FNL RAT)
2nd | Code Of Honor | $15.20 Payout | FNL RAT = 137 (Mid Range FNL RAT)
3rd | Tacitus | $5.60 Payout | FNL RAT = 147 (Top Mid Range FNL RAT)
2018 Kentucky Derby Top 2 Highest Final Time Ratings finished in-the-money
1st | Justify | $7.80 Payout | FNL RAT = 150 ( 2nd Highest FNL RAT)
2nd | Good Magic| $9.20 Payout | FNL RAT = 150 (2nd Highest FNL RAT)
3rd | Audible | $5.80 Payout | FNL RAT = 158 (Top FNL RAT)
2017 Kentucky Derby Highest Final Time Ratings Wins
1st | Always Dreaming | $11.40 Payout | FNL RAT = 158 ( Top FNL RAT)
2nd | Lookin At Lee | $26.60 Payout | FNL RAT = 138 (Mid Range FNL RAT)
3rd | Audible | $20.80 Payout | FNL RAT = 138 (Mid Range FNL RAT)
2017 Kentucky Derby Highest Final Time Ratings Wins
1st | Nyquist | $6.60 Payout | FNL RAT = 146 ( 2nd Highest FNL RAT)
2nd | Exaggerator | $5.40 Payout | FNL RAT = 156 (Top FNL RAT)
3rd | Gun Runner | $6.00 Payout | FNL RAT = 146 (Shared 2nd Highest FNL RAT)
The Final Time Rating can be found in the 2nd to last column in the horses data boxes projected performances in Today's Racing Digest Race Sheets.
The FNL RAT has proven to be a good indicator of a horse's ability to finish strong or to quickly determine which horse might have a big closing kick. Since, the FNL RAT measures a horse's final time against our track pars, with the daily track variant factored you can easily compare each horses closing ability even if they have run on a different track, distances, and surfaces.
Also included in chart above is the FIRE, CPR and Pace Rating earned in that race.
Expected Final Race Equation (FIRE)
The highest FIRE number each horse is expected to earn in the Pegasus World Cup has predicted the winner in 4 of the 7 times the Pegasus WC has run. In addition, the horse with the highest expected FIRE has been in the money 4 out of 7 races. The Expected FIRE can be found in the header of the Digest race sheets and is selected by our expert race analyst as the figure they believe the horse will earn in today's race.
Unlike other speed figures which only take into account a horse’s final time, the Fire Number is based on a horse’s speed throughout the race, taking into account each and every time recorded by the horse during the running of the race. (PAR = 100, 2 points = one length)
Expected Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)
The CPR is especially powerful given that it is more then just a final speed rating which only tells you how fast a horse ran in it’s last race. The CPR is based on pace, final time and closing fraction. It is then modified by the track variant (place and track speed) and may be adjusted for an ‘unusual’ pace. The CPR, with its pace component built in, tends to favor horses with a good mix of speed and stamina.
Pace Rating (PAC RAT)
A rating that shows you the expected pace of the race early for each past performance. A comparison of this figure with the rest of the field's PAC RAT can give you a better idea of the potential shape of the race.
