Preakness favorites betting trends tell a useful story for 2026: the public’s top choice deserves respect, but not blind trust. Over the last eight runnings of the Preakness, the actual favorite won only twice. That is a 25% win rate for the race favorite.
That does not mean favorites have been useless. In fact, the actual favorite finished in the money seven times from eight Preakness races, an 87.5% in-the-money rate. The lesson is sharper than “bet against the favorite.” The better takeaway is this: Preakness favorites have been reliable underneath, but not automatic winners.
Digest Pro Tip
The Preakness favorite has been much safer as an underneath horse than as a win single. That matters when building exactas, trifectas, and multi-race tickets.
Preakness Favorites: Last Eight Runnings
The top three betting choices in the Preakness from 2018 through 2025. All eight races were run at Pimlico at 1 3/16 miles on dirt. The 2026 Preakness is different because it moves to Laurel Park, but the historical Preakness favorite data still gives us a strong betting baseline.
Preakness Stakes Favorites at Pimlico: Last 8 Years
Using the last eight Preakness runnings at Pimlico from 2018 through 2025, the post-time favorite won 2 times, producing a 25% win rate.
| Year | Winner | Favorite Won? | Post-Time Favorite |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Journalism | Yes | Journalism |
| 2024 | Seize the Grey | No | Mystik Dan |
| 2023 | National Treasure | No | Mage |
| 2022 | Early Voting | No | Epicenter |
| 2021 | Rombauer | No | Medina Spirit |
| 2020 | Swiss Skydiver | No | Authentic |
| 2019 | War of Will | No | Improbable |
| 2018 | Justify | Yes | Justify |
Bottom line: Favorites went 2-for-8. Journalism in 2025 was the first winning Preakness favorite since Justify in 2018.
| Favorite Group | Starts | Wins | Win % | In The Money | ITM % | Avg. Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 7 | 87.5% | 1.60 |
| 2nd Favorite | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 37.5% | 3.99 |
| 3rd Favorite | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 6.35 |
| All Top 3 Favorites | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 14 | 58.3% | 3.98 |
The actual favorite won just two of the last eight Preakness races in this sample. But that same favorite hit the board in seven of eight. That split is important. It says the public has generally been right that the favorite belongs, but wrong often enough when treating that horse as a stand-alone win key.
Pro Tip: Before accepting the Preakness favorite at a short price, ask whether that horse is a win key, an underneath anchor, or simply an overbet name.
What the Top Three Preakness Favorites Tell Bettors
The combined top-three favorite group went 5-for-24, a 20.8% win rate. That is not especially strong when we consider these are the shortest-priced horses in the race every year. The in-the-money rate of 58.3% is better, but still not dominant.
This supports a balanced approach. The top three betting choices should usually be respected, but the Preakness has not been a race where bettors can simply box the obvious horses and expect the value to hold. The first choice has been reliable underneath. The second choice has been weaker than expected. The third choice has produced the same number of wins as the favorite in this eight-race sample.
Bettor’s Edge
The third betting choice won as many Preakness races as the favorite in this sample. That is a reminder to evaluate the full top tier, not just the horse taking the most money.
Preakness Day Favorites: Full-Card Trends
The full-card Preakness Day data tells a different story. Across 110 races from the last eight Preakness Day cards, favorites won 51 races, or 46.36% overall. That is a strong favorite win rate across the full card.
| Category | Races | Favorite Wins | Favorite Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Races | 110 | 51 | 46.36% |
| Dirt Races | 65 | 31 | 47.69% |
| Turf Races | 45 | 20 | 44.44% |
| All Routes | 65 | 36 | 55.38% |
| All Sprints | 45 | 15 | 33.33% |
| Dirt Routes | 30 | 18 | 60.00% |
| Dirt Sprints | 35 | 13 | 37.14% |
| Turf Routes | 35 | 18 | 51.43% |
| Turf Sprints | 10 | 2 | 20.00% |
The most important number here is the dirt-route favorite win percentage. On Preakness Day cards in this sample, dirt-route favorites won 60% of the time. That is a powerful trend. But here is the catch: the Preakness itself did not follow that same pattern. The actual Preakness favorite won only 25% of the time.
Why the Preakness Favorite Is Different From Other Dirt-Route Favorites
On the surface, a 60% dirt-route favorite win rate on Preakness Day might suggest that the Preakness favorite should be trusted. But the race itself is different from the rest of the card.
The Preakness is a Grade 1 race for 3-year-olds at 1 3/16 miles. It draws horses coming out of different prep paths, horses exiting the Kentucky Derby, new shooters, high-pressure pace scenarios, and public money tied to reputation. That makes it a different wagering problem than a normal dirt route on the undercard.
That difference is exactly why the favorite can be right enough to hit the board, but vulnerable enough to lose the win spot. The public often identifies a legitimate contender. The problem is price, trip, pace pressure, and whether that horse is being asked to do too much at short odds.
Pro Insight
Preakness Day dirt-route favorites have been strong overall, but the Preakness favorite has been less reliable to win. Separate the full-card trend from the race-specific trend.
What This Means for 2026 at Laurel Park
The 2026 Preakness adds a new wrinkle because the race is being run at Laurel Park instead of Pimlico. That means bettors should not blindly copy Pimlico-based assumptions and apply them to Laurel. The favorite trend still matters, but it should be combined with Laurel Park track profile, post position, pace shape, and current form.
For 2026, the right approach is not simply “bet the favorite” or “beat the favorite.” The right approach is to decide how the favorite should be used. If the favorite has the right tactical speed, post position, figure profile, and race shape, he can be a legitimate win candidate. If he is short-priced without a clear edge, the historical Preakness data says he may be better used underneath than singled on top.
How to Use Today’s Racing Digest With Favorite Trends
Favorite trends are only useful when they are paired with actual handicapping. Today’s Racing Digest helps bettors move beyond the tote board by comparing each horse’s projected performance, class level, pace role, and expected trip.
The Race Sheets help identify each horse’s figure profile and likely race shape. The Fractional Charting gives you a projection of the most likely pace scenario at each point of call throughout the entire race. The Track Profile helps determine which running styles have been winning at today’s distance and surface. The Post Position Winners by Size of Field report adds another layer by showing how starting positions have performed based on field size and race type.
That is how favorite data becomes useful. We do not want to know only whether a horse is favored. We want to know whether the favorite actually fits today’s race.
Betting Takeaway: Should You Trust the Preakness Favorite?
The Preakness favorite has been reliable, but not dominant. In the supplied eight-year sample, the actual favorite won 25% of the time and finished in the money 87.5% of the time. That points to a clear wagering strategy.
Use the favorite if the figures, post, and pace setup support the price. Be willing to lean on the favorite underneath if the horse looks logical but not dominant. And when another contender offers a stronger figure profile or better trip at a better price, do not be afraid to challenge the top choice.
Final betting takeaway: In our 8 year study Preakness favorites were better board hitters than win locks. For 2026 at Laurel Park, the best strategy is to respect the favorite, test the favorite, and only trust the favorite if the full Today’s Racing Digest profile says the price is fair.
Get all your Handicapping Information for the Preakness and Black-Eyed Susan Weekend and Laurel Park here: Preakness & Black-Eyed Susan Picks