Preakness 2026 picks at Laurel Park require more than a quick look at the morning line. This year’s race is being run away from Pimlico during that track’s redevelopment, and Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo is skipping the Preakness, pointing instead toward the Belmont Stakes. That means there is no Triple Crown on the line and no Derby winner anchoring the betting market.
The 2026 Preakness drew a full 14-horse field, with Iron Honor made the 9-2 morning-line favorite. Taj Mahal, Chip Honcho, and Incredibolt are all listed at 5-1, while Ocelli, exiting a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, is listed at 6-1. The full gate makes pace, post position, and trip risk major handicapping factors.
This Preakness analysis focuses on the supplied Today’s Racing Digest figure set: Fire Number, CPR, Pace Fig, and Final Fig. These numbers help us compare each horse’s recent performance profile and identify which runners bring the right combination of sustained speed, pace ability, and finishing strength into the 1 3/16-mile Grade 1 test at Laurel Park.
| Horse | Race Date | Track | Race | Type | Finish | Fire | CPR | Pace Fig | Final Fig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull by the Horns | Mar. 21, 2026 | TP | 8 | STK | 1 | 86 | 115 | 123 | 120 |
| Chip Honcho | Feb. 14, 2026 | FG | 12 | STK | 2 | 92 | 115 | 149 | 132 |
| Corona de Oro | Mar. 7, 2026 | FG | 2 | MSW | 1 | 80 | 102 | 153 | 125 |
| Crupper | Apr. 18, 2026 | OP | 6 | STK | 1 | 84 | 137 | 117 | 134 |
| Great White | Feb. 21, 2026 | TP | 9 | STK | 1 | 86 | 140 | 137 | 135 |
| Incredibolt | Mar. 14, 2026 | CNL | 9 | STK | 1 | 94 | 149 | 140 | 152 |
| Iron Honor | Feb. 28, 2026 | AQU | 10 | STK | 1 | 89 | 139 | 152 | 141 |
| Napoleon Solo | Oct. 4, 2025 | AQU | 7 | STK | 1 | 98 | 110 | 198 | 146 |
| Ocelli | May 2, 2026 | CD | 12 | STK | 3 | 93 | 122 | 137 | 141 |
| Pretty Boy Miah | Apr. 25, 2026 | AQU | 3 | SOC | 1 | 94 | 139 | 143 | 143 |
| Robusta | Mar. 7, 2026 | SA | 8 | STK | 2 | 100 | 133 | 155 | 143 |
| Taj Mahal | Apr. 18, 2026 | LRL | 11 | STK | 1 | 92 | 151 | 152 | 149 |
| Talkin | Aug. 30, 2025 | SAR | 6 | MSW | 1 | 95 | 121 | 152 | 132 |
| The Hell We Did | Mar. 15, 2026 | SUN | 2 | ALW | 1 | 98 | 153 | 120 | 149 |
Digest Pro Tip
Do not use one figure in isolation. In a 14-horse Preakness, the best profile is usually a horse with enough pace to stay involved and enough final figure strength to keep finishing.
How to Read the Preakness Figure Table
We’ve isolated the field’s most competitive past performance based on the highest Final Time Rating earned in that race. Along with the Final Time Rating we also look at the Fire, CPR, and Pace Rating figures each Preakness runner earned in that representative race line. The key columns are:
- Fire Number: A Today’s Racing Digest performance figure that reflects sustained race speed.
- CPR: A comprehensive performance rating that blends early pace and final-time quality.
- Pace Fig: A measure of early/mid-race pace strength.
- Final Fig: A measure of finishing performance and final-time strength.
The goal is not simply to rank the field by one column. A horse with a big Pace Fig may be dangerous if that speed is controlled, but vulnerable if pressured. A horse with a big Final Fig may be a major threat, but only if the race shape allows that finish to matter.
Top Preakness Contenders by Final Fig
| Horse | Recent Race | Fire | CPR | Pace Fig | Final Fig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incredibolt | Mar. 14, CNL Stakes win | 94 | 149 | 140 | 152 |
| Taj Mahal | Apr. 18, LRL Stakes win | 92 | 151 | 152 | 149 |
| The Hell We Did | Mar. 15, SUN Allowance win | 98 | 153 | 120 | 149 |
| Napoleon Solo | Oct. 4, AQU Stakes win | 98 | 110 | 198 | 146 |
| Pretty Boy Miah | Apr. 25, AQU SOC win | 94 | 139 | 143 | 143 |
| Robusta | Mar. 7, SA Stakes second | 100 | 133 | 155 | 143 |
| Iron Honor | Feb. 28, AQU Stakes win | 89 | 139 | 152 | 141 |
| Ocelli | May 2, CD Stakes third | 93 | 122 | 137 | 141 |
On raw Final Fig, Incredibolt owns the strongest number in the field with a 152. That immediately makes him a serious Preakness contender from a performance standpoint. The challenge is that he drew Post 12, so bettors have to decide whether his figure edge is enough to offset the possibility of a wide trip.
Taj Mahal is arguably the cleaner figure-and-trip combination. His 149 Final Fig is paired with a strong 151 CPR and a 152 Pace Fig, and that performance came at Laurel Park. In a race being run at Laurel instead of Pimlico, that local stakes win matters. He also drew the rail, which can be a weapon if he breaks cleanly and holds position.
The Hell We Did has the top CPR in the supplied table at 153 and a 149 Final Fig, but his lower 120 Pace Fig creates a different profile. He has finishing strength, but bettors need to decide whether he can stay close enough in a large Grade 1 field.
Bettor’s Edge
Incredibolt has the best Final Fig, but Taj Mahal has the strongest combination of local form, pace, CPR, and final-time ability.
Top Preakness Contenders by CPR
| Horse | CPR | Final Fig | Handicapping Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Hell We Did | 153 | 149 | Strong overall rating, but must prove the pace fit |
| Taj Mahal | 151 | 149 | Best local figure profile |
| Incredibolt | 149 | 152 | Best final figure, outside draw risk |
| Great White | 140 | 135 | Competitive but needs more finishing punch |
| Iron Honor | 139 | 141 | Logical favorite, but not dominant on these figures |
| Pretty Boy Miah | 139 | 143 | Interesting longshot figure profile |
CPR points us to a slightly different view of the race. The Hell We Did ranks first, Taj Mahal ranks second, and Incredibolt ranks third. That creates an important handicapping debate: do we prefer Incredibolt’s superior Final Fig, Taj Mahal’s local and tactical profile, or The Hell We Did’s top overall CPR?
For our purposes, Taj Mahal gets a meaningful upgrade because he has already delivered a strong Laurel Park stakes win. His 152 Pace Fig and 149 Final Fig suggest he can be involved early and still finish, which is exactly the type of profile we want in a large-field Laurel Park Preakness.
Pace Fig Analysis: Who Could Shape the Race?
The Pace Fig column is critical because Laurel Park routes can punish horses who lose position early. This field has several runners with enough pace to affect the race shape.
| Horse | Pace Fig | Figure Concern |
|---|---|---|
| Napoleon Solo | 198 | Huge pace figure, but older race line and lower CPR |
| Robusta | 155 | Strong pace, must avoid doing too much early |
| Corona de Oro | 153 | Fast maiden profile, class jump is the question |
| Iron Honor | 152 | Favorite has enough tactical pace |
| Taj Mahal | 152 | Local pace and finish combination |
| Talkin | 152 | Older MSW figure, recency/class questions |
| Chip Honcho | 149 | Strong pace, solid Final Fig |
Napoleon Solo owns the biggest Pace Fig in the table at 198, but that number comes from an Oct. 4 stakes win. It is an eye-catching number, but the lower 110 CPR and the older date make him harder to trust as a clean win candidate. He may still be a key race-shape horse if that pace shows up again.
Robusta and Iron Honor both bring strong pace ability, and Chip Honcho has a 149 Pace Fig with a 132 Final Fig. Those runners can help determine whether this Preakness becomes a controlled tactical race or a more contested pace scenario.
Taj Mahal again stands out because he combines a 152 Pace Fig with a 151 CPR and 149 Final Fig. That is a balanced profile. He does not need to be one-dimensional, and he has the numbers to be close without necessarily emptying out late.
Horse-by-Horse Preakness Figure Analysis
Bull by the Horns
Bull by the Horns exits a Turfway stakes win with an 86 Fire Number, 115 CPR, 123 Pace Fig, and 120 Final Fig. That is a respectable winning line, but the overall figure profile is lighter than the leading Preakness contenders.
Betting Takeaway
Needs a step forward on dirt and on class. More of a deep exotic candidate than a primary win player.
Chip Honcho
Chip Honcho’s Feb. 14 Fair Grounds stakes line produced a 92 Fire Number, 115 CPR, 149 Pace Fig, and 132 Final Fig. The Pace Fig is strong, and his middle draw gives him options. The concern is that the CPR and Final Fig are below the top tier.
Betting Takeaway
A usable pace-and-trip contender, especially underneath. He fits better as an exacta/trifecta player than as a pure figure standout.
Corona de Oro
Corona de Oro earned an 80 Fire Number, 102 CPR, 153 Pace Fig, and 125 Final Fig in a Fair Grounds maiden special weight win. The pace number is sharp, but this is a major class jump from MSW company into the Preakness.
Betting Takeaway
Could influence the pace, but the class and overall figure gap make him difficult to endorse on top.
Crupper
Crupper exits an Oaklawn stakes win with an 84 Fire Number, 137 CPR, 117 Pace Fig, and 134 Final Fig. The CPR is competitive, but the lower Pace Fig suggests he may need the right setup to stay close enough.
Betting Takeaway
Not impossible underneath, but he needs the race to develop in his favor.
Great White
Great White’s Turfway stakes win produced an 86 Fire Number, 140 CPR, 137 Pace Fig, and 135 Final Fig. Those numbers are solid and balanced, but they do not jump off the page compared with the top figure horses.
Betting Takeaway
Respectable profile, but from an outside draw he needs price and trip help.
Incredibolt
Incredibolt brings the strongest Final Fig in the field, a 152 from his Mar. 14 Colonial stakes win. He also owns a 94 Fire Number, 149 CPR, and 140 Pace Fig. That is one of the cleanest overall figure profiles in the race.
The issue is not ability. The issue is trip. From Post 12 in a 14-horse Preakness, he has to avoid losing too much ground into the first turn.
Betting Takeaway
Major contender and the top Final Fig horse. Use prominently, but demand fair value because of the outside draw.
Iron Honor
Iron Honor is the 9-2 morning-line favorite, and his Feb. 28 Aqueduct stakes win produced an 89 Fire Number, 139 CPR, 152 Pace Fig, and 141 Final Fig. The figures are strong, but they are not dominant compared with Taj Mahal, Incredibolt, or The Hell We Did.
His advantage is that he has enough tactical pace to work out a trip from Post 9. His disadvantage is price: if the public makes him a clear favorite, bettors need to decide whether his figure edge is actually there.
Betting Takeaway
Logical contender, but not a standout on the supplied figures. More of a must-use than a must-single.
Napoleon Solo
Napoleon Solo owns the most extreme Pace Fig in the field with a 198 from an Oct. 4 Aqueduct stakes win. He also has a 98 Fire Number and 146 Final Fig, but the 110 CPR creates a mixed profile.
The date matters. This is an older race line than most of the others, so bettors should be careful about treating that pace figure as automatically repeatable.
Betting Takeaway
Dangerous if that old pace returns, but the profile is volatile. Better used defensively than as a main win key.
Ocelli
Ocelli exits the Kentucky Derby with a 93 Fire Number, 122 CPR, 137 Pace Fig, and 141 Final Fig. That is a solid line, especially given the Derby context, but the CPR is not as strong as the top Preakness figure horses.
From Post 2, Ocelli has the chance to save ground. The question is whether he can avoid getting buried and whether the two-week turnaround from the Derby leaves enough finish.
Betting Takeaway
Usable contender from an inside draw, but the figures do not make him an automatic overlay if the public overbets the Derby connection.
Pretty Boy Miah
Pretty Boy Miah earned a 94 Fire Number, 139 CPR, 143 Pace Fig, and 143 Final Fig in an Aqueduct starter optional claiming win. The figures are better than the race type might suggest.
The concern is class. Moving from SOC company into the Preakness is a serious ask, but the figure profile makes him more interesting than a casual glance might indicate.
Betting Takeaway
Live longshot type on numbers. Class is the question, but he is not impossible underneath.
Robusta
Robusta brings the top Fire Number in the field with a 100 from his Mar. 7 Santa Anita stakes second. He also owns a 133 CPR, 155 Pace Fig, and 143 Final Fig. That combination makes him dangerous if he can transfer that form to Laurel Park.
The concern is whether his strong pace profile puts him into a demanding early battle. If he does too much too soon, the final sixteenth could become difficult.
Betting Takeaway
Strong Fire and pace profile. Use in exotics, but be cautious if the pace scenario looks crowded.
Taj Mahal
Taj Mahal may have the best all-around Preakness figure profile. His Apr. 18 Laurel Park stakes win produced a 92 Fire Number, 151 CPR, 152 Pace Fig, and 149 Final Fig. That is a strong blend of local form, tactical pace, and finishing strength.
The Laurel Park race line is especially important. In a Preakness moved from Pimlico to Laurel, local stakes success should not be ignored. The rail draw requires a clean break, but if Taj Mahal secures position, his figure profile fits the race extremely well.
Betting Takeaway
Top win contender. The combination of local form, CPR, Pace Fig, and Final Fig makes him the most complete figure play in the race.
Talkin
Talkin’s Aug. 30 Saratoga maiden special weight win produced a 95 Fire Number, 121 CPR, 152 Pace Fig, and 132 Final Fig. The pace number is strong, but the race line is old and came in MSW company.
Betting Takeaway
Has speed, but recency and class questions make him hard to trust as a primary contender.
The Hell We Did
The Hell We Did owns the top CPR in the field with a 153 from a Sunland allowance win. He also has a 98 Fire Number and 149 Final Fig, but the 120 Pace Fig suggests he may not be as naturally forward as several rivals.
That makes him interesting if the pace gets honest. If he can stay close enough, his finishing profile gives him a chance to make noise late.
Betting Takeaway
Strong overall number and a serious underneath threat. Win chances depend on pace and position.
Top Figure-Based Preakness Rankings
- Taj Mahal — Best blend of local form, CPR, Pace Fig, and Final Fig.
- Incredibolt — Top Final Fig horse, but outside draw creates trip risk.
- Iron Honor — Logical favorite with tactical pace, though not dominant on figures.
- The Hell We Did — Top CPR, strong finish, needs the right setup.
- Robusta — Best Fire Number and strong pace, but trip and pace pressure matter.
- Ocelli — Derby-tested and drawn inside, but CPR is below the top figure horses.
- Pretty Boy Miah — Better numbers than the class line suggests; longshot use.
- Chip Honcho — Tactical pace player with useful exotic appeal.
Pro Insight
Taj Mahal is the most complete figure horse, while Incredibolt is the most dangerous final-time horse. That is the central decision for win bettors.
How We Would Approach the Race
If we are building Preakness tickets from this figure set, Taj Mahal is the horse we would start with. He is not the highest Fire Number horse and not the highest Final Fig horse, but he checks the most boxes: local Laurel Park stakes win, elite CPR, strong pace, and a strong Final Fig.
Incredibolt is the main danger because his 152 Final Fig is the best in the field. If he works out the trip from Post 12, he can absolutely win. Iron Honor is logical, but as the morning-line favorite, he needs to offer enough value because several rivals are at least as interesting on the supplied figures.
The Hell We Did, Robusta, Ocelli, Pretty Boy Miah, and Chip Honcho are the next group for exotics, with Pretty Boy Miah the most interesting price horse if bettors are willing to forgive the class jump.
Final Betting Takeaway
The 2026 Preakness at Laurel Park is not a race where the favorite towers over the field on the supplied Today’s Racing Digest figures. Iron Honor is logical, but Taj Mahal and Incredibolt have the stronger figure arguments in key areas.
Taj Mahal is the preferred win candidate because he combines Laurel Park form, tactical pace, high CPR, and finishing strength. Incredibolt is the biggest danger on raw Final Fig. Iron Honor is a must-use favorite, but not a free square. For value, Pretty Boy Miah and The Hell We Did deserve attention underneath.
Get your Digest for Preakness Weekend and Laurel Park here: Complete Digest.