By Jarrod Horak
The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues with the $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on Saturday, March 14. This Kentucky Derby points race brings together a field of three-year-olds traveling one mile and one-eighth around one turn on the main track.
In this breakdown, I’ll first walk through the field, then dive into the Today’s Racing Digest data. The past performances referenced in this analysis come from race sheets available at Today’s Racing Digest.
Virginia Derby Overview
| Race | Virginia Derby |
|---|---|
| Purse | $500,000 |
| Track | Colonial Downs |
| Distance | 1 1/8 Miles (One Turn) |
| Division | 3-Year-Olds |
| Post Time | 5:10 PM ET |
This unique one-turn mile and an eighth configuration can produce tactical races where early positioning matters, but horses with stamina can still make a sustained run down the long Colonial Downs stretch.
Meet the Virginia Derby Field
- #1 Buetane (5-2) – Flavien Prat rides for Bob Baffert. Third in the Southwest Stakes last time.
- #2 Grittiness (12-1) – Todd Pletcher trainee who finished second in the Withers Stakes.
- #3 Epic Desire (15-1) – Another Pletcher runner; fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes.
- #4 Work (20-1) – Doug O’Neill trainee stretching out and switching from turf.
- #5 High Camp (9-2) – William Walden runner who broke his maiden impressively last out.
- #6 Lockstocknpharoah (5-1) – Undefeated in two starts at Turfway Park.
- #7 Incredibolt (10-1) – Won the Street Sense Stakes as a two-year-old but struggled last out.
- #8 Confessional (4-1) – Brad Cox trainee adding blinkers again.
- #9 Ocelli (15-1) – Still a maiden after four starts.
- #10 Clocker Special (8-1) – Developing runner has a wide draw to overcome.
Speed Figures and Key Metrics
Using the Final Time Rating, Fire Number, and CPR from Today’s Racing Digest helps identify which runners have already demonstrated the speed and class necessary to win at this level.
Among this group, Buetane stands out with back-to-back Final Time Ratings of 140 in graded stakes company. His Fire Numbers and CPR ratings also stack up well against the field.
When analyzing Derby prep races like this, compare each horse’s speed figures against the class level where they earned them. Horses like Buetane that produce strong numbers in graded stakes company often hold a major edge over runners whose best figures came against weaker fields.
Virginia Derby Contender Analysis
#1 Buetane
Buetane enters this race with the strongest combination of class and speed figures in the field. His recent graded stakes efforts produced back-to-back 140 Final Time Ratings along with strong Fire Numbers and CPR ratings.
He has already proven competitive against higher-level competition, including a strong effort in the Southwest Stakes. From the inside post, he should secure a favorable tactical position—either setting the pace or tracking just behind the leaders.
#2 Grittiness
A deep closer who earned a 107 Final Time Rating in the Withers. With a pace scenario that may not be particularly fast, his running style could leave him with too much to do late.
#3 Epic Desire
He earned a 114 Final Time Rating at Tampa Bay Downs in the Sam F. Davis but finished well behind the leaders. He’ll need significant improvement to contend here.
#4 Work
This runner graduated going 6½ furlongs on turf at Santa Anita. The jump in distance and switch to dirt raises serious questions. While he may show early speed, this appears to be a tough spot.
#5 High Camp
After finishing second in his debut, he broke his maiden impressively with a 123 Final Time Rating. He looks like a horse ready to stretch out in distance and could sit just behind the pace under John Velazquez.
#6 Lockstocknpharoah
Undefeated in two starts at Turfway Park, including a dominant eight-length win going a mile. His pedigree suggests he can handle dirt, but this will be his first attempt on the surface and his first stakes test.
#7 Incredibolt
He looked promising when winning the Street Sense Stakes as a two-year-old but completely failed to fire in the Holy Bull Stakes. The question now is whether that race was an anomaly.
#8 Confessional
The addition of blinkers could spark improvement. Earlier races produced competitive numbers, including a 137 Final Time Rating. If he returns to that level, he could be involved late.
#9 Ocelli
A maiden with modest figures making his second stakes start. Until he proves he belongs at this level, he’s difficult to back.
#10 Clocker Special
After breaking his maiden in a sprint, he stretched out and finished second by a neck. His figures still fall short of the top contenders.