By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes headlines the 10-race program at Saratoga on Friday, July 10. The $225,000 event is contested at 6½ furlongs on the main track for three-year-old fillies, and it goes as Race 9 with a scheduled post time of 5:40 p.m. ET.
Predicted Pace
The early pace should be honest, with several fillies capable of showing speed. Carmel Coast, Mythical, and other pace players are likely to ensure solid fractions, creating a potential opening for tactical runners like Goodall while giving closers such as Sneaky Good an opportunity if the pace becomes demanding.
Contender Analysis
#3 Carmel Coast
Carmel Coast continues to improve and returns to her preferred distance of 6½ furlongs, where she is a perfect 2-for-2.
She finished second behind Goodall in the Jersey Girl after being forced to set the pace from the rail. With a better post position this time, she may enjoy a more comfortable tactical trip and could take another step forward in her third start of the season.
#4 Sneaky Good
Sneaky Good appears well suited by the cutback in distance after competing in two turn stakes races on March 1 and June 13.
She ran well in all four attempts around one turn and would appreciate a contested pace. If the frontrunners soften each other up early, she has the closing style to capitalize late.
#5 Tommy Jo
Tommy Jo makes her first start since last fall after an outstanding juvenile campaign.
She is undefeated in two starts at Saratoga, including a dominant Grade 1 Spinaway victory. While her talent is undeniable, she returns from a lengthy layoff and may not be fully cranked for her three-year-old debut.
If she returns at her best, she is certainly capable of winning.
#10 Goodall
Goodall enters off an impressive victory in the Jersey Girl Stakes at Saratoga, where she tracked the pace before drawing away to win by 2¾ lengths.
Her speed figures have been outstanding in her best performances, including a 144 while winning a stakes race at Oaklawn and a 134 in her latest victory. Just as importantly, her pace figures show she can comfortably chase fast fractions before making her winning move.
Other Horses to Watch
Iron Orchard (#2) returns after a lengthy layoff with a new trainer. She captured the Grade 1 Frizette as a two-year-old and posted a Saratoga bullet workout from the gate late last month. If she returns in top form, she could surprise.
Peach Tie (#6) has won six of eight starts and captured the Grade 3 Miss Preakness last time. She may need another step forward against this deeper field.
Mythical (#7) is a remarkably consistent filly with seven wins from ten starts. While she has plenty of experience, she may have less upside than several lightly raced rivals.
