By Jarrod Horak
The Road to the Kentucky Oaks continues on Sunday at Santa Anita Park with the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes. This $100,000 event for three-year-old fillies covers one mile and one-sixteenth on the main track and serves as an important Kentucky Oaks qualifying race.
For this race, I’m using data from the Complete Digest, which provides the performance metrics and projections used throughout this analysis.
Let’s break down the field, evaluate the pace scenario, and identify the contenders.
Santa Ysabel Stakes Field Overview
A field of seven sophomore fillies lines up for this year’s Santa Isabel Stakes:
- #1 Cee Drew – Turf route stakes winner trying dirt for the first time.
- #2 Bank Shot – Finished third in a recent one-mile Oaks prep at Santa Anita.
- #3 French Blue – Impressive sprint debut winner for Bob Baffert.
- #4 Piney Woods – Maiden winner stepping up in class for trainer Michael McCarthy.
- #5 Forced Entry – Dominant mile maiden winner for Bob Baffert.
- #6 Super Corredora – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner trying to rebound.
- #7 My Love Caroline – California-bred filly stretching out in distance.
Pace Scenario
The early pace should be honest, with several fillies capable of showing speed.
- Forced Entry wired the field in her maiden win and figures to be forwardly placed.
- Super Corredora has early speed and wired the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
- My Love Caroline could show speed stretching out.
- Bank Shot may track the leaders from just behind the pace.
Depending on how aggressively the early pace develops, the race could favor either the controlling speed or a well-positioned stalker.
Speed and Performance Metrics
The projections from Today’s Racing Digest handicappers estimate how each horse could perform using several proprietary metrics:
| Horse | Fire Number | CPR | Fast Fig | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cee Drew | – | 140 | Top | 129 |
| Forced Entry | 87 | – | – | 126 |
| Super Corredora | – | – | – | 123 |
The best numbers belong to Cee Drew, but they were earned on turf. Forced Entry and Super Corredora have competitive dirt figures and appear well suited to this race.
Santa Ysabel Stakes Video