By Jarrod Horak
Full Santa Anita Park picks & analysis: Santa Anita Park picks
This Thursday, June 11th, marks the closing week of the Hollywood meet at Santa Anita Park, and I’m excited to break down both stakes races on the card. The past performance data I’m referencing comes from the popular Complete Digest.
Desert Stormer Stakes – Race 2
Distance: 6 furlongs, Main Track
Purse: $100,000
Field: 5
| Post | Horse | Morning Line | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antifona | 8-1 | Turf-to-dirt switch |
| 2 | Nooni | Favorite | Bob Baffert, long layoff |
| 3 | Revera | 5-1 | Returns to dirt |
| 4 | Magnificat | 7-5 | Early pressing speed, in form |
| 5 | Syntax | 12-1 | Turns back in distance |
Key Speed and Performance Metrics:
- Fire Numbers (speed throughout the race): Antifona 90, Nooni 88, Magnificat 87
- CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating): Antifona 134, Magnificat 130, Nooni 126
- Fast Fig: Magnificat 124, Antifona 123
- Final Time Rating: Magnificat 135, Antifona 134, Nooni 132
Analysis:
- Antifona switches from turf to dirt. She posted strong performances on turf, including a 134 final time rating in a March G3 race, but her ability to transfer form to dirt remains the question.
- Nooni is a Baffert trainee returning off a long layoff (since December 2024). Her sprinting background is promising, but fitness is a question.
- Magnificat brings the recency edge with strong performances in her last two starts, including a 135 final time rating on turf. She’s ridden by Antonio Freu, who got to know her last time.
Affirmed Stakes – Race 8
Distance: 1 1/16 miles, Main Track
Purse: $100,000
Field: 6
| Post | Horse | Morning Line | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | One More Freud | 3-1 | Second start off layoff |
| 2 | Mo Koko | 6-1 | Stretching out from sprints |
| 3 | Secured Freedom | 8-5 | Off-the-pace style, favorite |
| 4 | Decisive Win | 9-5 | Front runner, route experience |
| 5 | Constitution Andi | 12-1 | First dirt start since January |
| 6 | Court of Appeal | 15-1 | First-time gelding, main track return |
Key Speed and Performance Metrics:
- Fire Numbers: Secured Freedom 92, Decisive Win 88, Constitution Andi 85
- CPR: Constitution Andi 128, Secured Freedom 122
- Fast Fig: Secured Freedom 122, Mo Koko 121, Decisive Win 120
- Final Time Rating: Secured Freedom 132, Decisive Win 131, Constitution Andi 131
Analysis:
- One More Freud could improve second start off the long layoff. Won both starts last year and may show progress under Mike Smith.
- Secured Freedom is the favorite, coming back to California with a strong workout and class relief. Joel Rosario rides.
- Decisive Win has experience at route distances and could get loose on the lead with Antonio Fresu aboard.
- Constitution Andi and Court of Appeal both return to dirt after recent turf attempts, making them longshot contenders.