By Jarrod Horak
I’m taking a look at all nine races on the Friday card at Santa Anita Park, and there’s added value on the program thanks to a Pick 6 carryover beginning in Race 4. I’ll be using data from the Complete Digest, including Fire Numbers, CPR ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings to break down the card race by race.
Race 1 — Starter Optional Claiming — 1 Mile Turf
The Digest numbers point clearly toward Rehearsal, who owns the best overall profile in the field with strong Fire Numbers, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating figures. She’s the obvious contender on paper.
Wildfire Princess has a legitimate chance to control the pace while stretching back out around two turns. She already proved she can handle this distance when winning a maiden claiming event at Del Mar last fall at one mile, and she followed that effort with a competitive third-place finish routing at Santa Anita.
Her recent sprint races weren’t bad at all, especially the runner-up finish going 6 ½ furlongs on turf in February. Juan Hernandez climbs back aboard, and that’s a major positive considering he guided her to one of her better recent efforts.
Race 2 — Maiden Special Weight (Cal-Breds) — 6 Furlongs Dirt
This race looks fairly straightforward. Otto’s Magic owns the strongest projected numbers across the board, including the top Fire Number, CPR, and Final Time Rating.
At even money on the morning line there’s not a lot of wagering value, but from a pure handicapping standpoint this horse simply looks best.
Race 3 — $32,000 Claiming — 6 Furlongs Turf
The Digest projections strongly favor Cosmo Friday, who is expected to post the top Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating.
What catches my eye is the return to the rider combination that already produced a win earlier this meet. Emisael Jaramillo guided this filly to a maiden claiming victory on March 13 going six furlongs on turf, and if she reproduces that effort she can absolutely beat favorite Eva Lea.
Race 4 — Maiden Special Weight — 1 Mile Dirt
This race kicks off the Pick 6 carryover sequence, and I think it runs through Decisive Win.
Broheim actually owns the best projected Digest numbers, but I have concerns about the surface switch. His better efforts have come on turf, and I’m not convinced the dirt route is what he truly wants.
Decisive Win exits what looks like a key race. In his debut he dueled early against Crudo Velocity, who has since won multiple races including the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile while earning triple-digit speed figures. Civil Liberty, another horse exiting that race, also returned to win next out.
That race experience matters, and now Doug O’Neill stretches this colt out around two turns with Antonio Fresu returning aboard.
Race 5 — Starter Allowance — 6 Furlongs Turf
This is one of the more competitive races on the card from a numbers standpoint. Several runners share similar Final Time Ratings, and the projections are spread among multiple horses.
I really like the cutback in distance for Burning Rubber. This gelding already owns multiple strong turf sprint efforts, including a maiden win at six furlongs and another victory at 6 ½ furlongs with Juan Hernandez aboard.
Last time out he stretched back to a mile and still ran competitively, earning a solid figure despite finishing fourth. Returning to a sprint feels like the right move.
Race 6 — Claiming $12,500 — 5 ½ Furlongs Dirt
Outrageous looks like the horse to beat.
The recent form is simply too strong to ignore. Over the last four starts this runner has posted three wins and a third-place finish, including a dominant three-length victory last time out with a 120 Final Time Rating.
The pace setup also works in his favor. This 5 ½-furlong configuration tends to reward early speed, and Outrageous should be forwardly placed from the start without needing the outright lead.
If you’re building larger Pick 6 tickets, I’d also consider Sensational ZZ, Wishes to Riches, and Ro Town.
Race 7 — Allowance Optional Claiming — 1 ¼ Miles Turf
This is one of the toughest races on the card to separate.
Crazy Cavalier and Mythical Reel fit on numbers, and Living Life and None Above the Law make sense but both have struggled to win races recently.
Catch the Breeze had legitimate trouble in his most recent start and may finally be rounding back into form after a lengthy layoff. He already owns a route victory at a mile and an eighth and now gets another chance to move forward third start back.
In a race where some of the obvious contenders feel exposed, I’m willing to gamble on upside and potential improvement.
Race 8 — $10,000 Claiming — 1 Mile Dirt
This field has several logical contenders, including Bear’s Board and A Fleet Ride, but I prefer the improving form of Makenarita.
She won a maiden claimer at this distance in March and then improved again last time when finishing second against $10,000 claimers while earning a 102 Final Time Rating.
The recent consistency is what I like most here. Bear’s Board has stronger peak numbers but enters off a pair of disappointing races, while Makenarita appears to be moving the right direction.
Race 9 — Maiden Special Weight (Cal-Breds) — 6 Furlongs Turf
The finale is a wide-open turf sprint for fillies and mares.
She’s No Quant owns strong projected numbers, but the trainer stats on turf are difficult to ignore, especially at a short morning-line price.
Zip Me Up debuted last August and ran a credible third going five furlongs on turf. The pedigree suggests she should improve with maturity and additional distance, and Carla Gaines has strong statistics with second-time starters returning from layoffs.
Hector Berrios takes the mount, and the recent workouts indicate she’s training well for her return.
