By Jarrod Horak
A $45,602 Pick 6 carryover is on the table at Santa Anita for Friday, March 6, and that creates a great opportunity to take a shot with a compact ticket. For this sequence I’m sticking with the same philosophy I’ve used in recent carryover videos — building a disciplined $16 ticket that still gives coverage in the most competitive legs.
For this analysis I’m using the data from the Complete Digest, which provides projected figures and pace analysis from the Today’s Racing Digest handicapping team.
The sequence runs from Race 4 through Race 9, so let’s walk through each leg and identify the best betting approach.
Race 4 — Allowance Optional Claiming
6 furlongs (Dirt) – California-bred 3-year-olds
Six furlongs at Santa Anita tends to favor early speed.
Race Breakdown
Tommy Norris looks like the likely pacesetter. His maiden win last time came at this same six-furlong trip, where he posted a strong 125 pace rating and 113 final time rating while controlling the tempo.
Southern Melody has already defeated Tommy Norris, finishing just under a length ahead in a maiden race last fall. After that effort he tried stakes company and now returns off the layoff with the rider who guided him to victory.
Fionella is interesting dropping out of several stakes attempts and cutting back in distance, but he’ll need to show he can keep up with the early pace.
Race 5 — Maiden Special Weight
1 mile (Turf) – California-bred fillies
This distance on turf plays more evenly than the sprint in Race 4.
| Running Style | Win % |
|---|---|
| Front Runners | 25% |
| Pressers | 28% |
| Midpack | 36% |
| Closers | 11% |
That balance creates a wide-open race, and when I see that kind of uncertainty in a Pick 6 sequence, I often look for a horse to single.
Race Breakdown
Suntory Time has been consistent with two straight third-place finishes at this distance.
Pure Chaos finished close in a sprint last time but hasn’t shown the same ability going long.
Adverse Selection may have the most upside in the field. She owns strong sprint figures — 110 and 108 final time ratings — and now stretches out after only two starts.
Her closing fractions suggest she has the stamina to handle the mile, and the addition of top rider Juan Hernandez only adds confidence.
Race 6 — Maiden Special Weight
6½ furlongs (Dirt) – California-bred
This race includes multiple lightly raced runners and a trio of first-time starters.
Race Breakdown
Positive Times improved nicely from his debut to his second start, jumping from a 92 to a 99 final time rating while finishing second. A similar step forward would make him extremely dangerous.
Galloping Ghost disappointed in his debut but had strong betting support and retains Juan Hernandez. Second-time starters often show big improvement.
One Step Beyond ran a solid third last time with a 101 final time rating, but that effort came in maiden claiming company and now he moves back up to maiden special weight.
Race 7 — Optional Claiming
1⅛ miles (Turf)
A compact field of six, but several runners bring legitimate class.
Race Breakdown
City Exile is the obvious form horse after a sharp 137 final time rating victory at this distance on February 1. That was his first start after the George Papaprodromou claim.
Twirling Point exits back-to-back Grade 3 races and now drops into optional claiming company, which makes him a major player on class alone. He also owns the best projected numbers across multiple Digest figures.
Race 8 — Starter Optional Claiming
1 mile (Dirt)
One mile on the Santa Anita main track is strongly speed-favoring.
| Running Style | Win % |
|---|---|
| Front Runners | 40% |
| Pressers | 50% |
Key Figures
| Horse | FIRE | CPR | Fast Fig | Final Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Majestic Palisades | 92 | 114 | 121 | 131 |
| Joint Venture | 92 | Best | 120 | Best |
Race Breakdown
Joint Venture makes his second start off the layoff after a respectable rallying third in a six-furlong sprint. That race should serve as the perfect prep for returning to his preferred route distance.
His 134 final time rating at Del Mar last fall fits extremely well with this field.
Race 9 — Claiming $25,000 (N2L)
1 mile (Turf)
The key to this race may simply be pace control.
Race Breakdown
Silly Rabbit is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and could find himself alone on the lead.
Last time he set the pace at 1⅛ miles and held well for second with a 120 final time rating. Cutting back to one mile makes the task slightly easier.
If he shakes loose early, he could prove very difficult to catch.
Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Carryover Video