By Jarrod Horak
I’m taking a deep dive into all five California-bred stakes races at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, May 23, using the past performances and proprietary ratings from Today’s Racing Digest. The data throughout this analysis comes from the Complete Digest, which remains one of the most valuable handicapping tools for identifying pace advantages, class edges, and projected performance figures.
We’ll go race by race through the stakes action, breaking down the projected pace scenarios, key speed figures, and the horses I believe offer the strongest wagering value.
Race 3 – Thor’s Echo Stakes
6 Furlongs – Dirt – California-Breds
The first stakes race on the card drew a seven-horse field, and this race profile strongly favors speed. Front-runners at this six-furlong distance have been winning at a high percentage, so tactical position should be critical from the opening break.
Formidable Favorite: Big City Lights
The horse to beat is clearly Big City Lights, and the projections back that up across every major category.
| Rating | Big City Lights |
|---|---|
| Fire Number | 100 |
| CPR | 153 |
| Fast Fig | 132 |
| Final Time Rating | 152 |
The Fire Number measures speed throughout the race, and Big City Lights towers over this field with a projected 100. He also owns the top CPR and Fast Fig, and best Final Time Rating.
Last time out, he returned from a layoff stretching from November to May and immediately fired a winning effort at seven furlongs while earning a 100 Fire Number and a 152 Final Time Rating. That race confirmed he came back every bit as sharp as before.
His dirt sprint record at Santa Anita is especially impressive:
- 8 dirt sprint wins overall
- 6 wins from 8 Santa Anita dirt sprint starts
- Consistent in virtually every effort
Kazushi Kimura rides back for Richard Mandella, and this proven class edge makes Big City Lights the clear horse to beat.
Other Horses to Consider
Lonesome Stew has tactical speed and enough back class to compete if the favorite falters. His prior 150 Final Time Rating shows he is capable on his best day.
Uncle Chilly enters sharp off back-to-back victories and continues improving, although this is a meaningful class rise.
Race 4 – Fran’s Valentine Stakes
1 Mile – Turf – Fillies & Mares
This turf mile drew a competitive field of eight, but much of the attention will focus on the consistency and class of Grand Slam Smile.
Top Numbers: Grand Slam Smile
| Rating | Grand Slam Smile |
|---|---|
| Fire Number | 91 |
| Fast Fig | 129 |
| Final Time Rating | 137 |
Grand Slam Smile exits graded stakes company and returns to the California-bred ranks with a clear class advantage. She consistently finishes in the top three and owns the strongest overall speed profile in this field.
I’m also interested in a possible upset candidate.
Om N Joy
Om N Joy gets substantial class relief after facing graded stakes company in each of her last four races.
Highlights from her most recent four races include:
- Grade 3 victory at Del Mar
- Competitive effort in the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland
- Starts in both the Grade 1 Beholder Mile and Grade 1 Apple Blossom
Now she drops back into state-bred competition while switching to turf.
Kent Desormeaux sticks with the talented filly for trainer Aggie Ordonez, and that jockey-trainer combination has produced strong overall results. The barn has also been winning in turf routes with limited starters.
While Om N Joy has yet to win on turf, this is a much softer spot than the company she’s been facing.
Race 6 – Crystal Water Stakes
1 Mile – Turf
This nine-horse field features several capable turf runners, but the race shape could favor early speed.
Front Running Favorite: Flyover
Flyover enters this race off a dominant front-running turf sprint victory where he controlled the pace throughout and earned a strong 150 Final Time Rating.
He now stretches back out around two turns, a scenario that already produced success earlier in his career.
Antonio Fresu rides back for John Sadler, and that combination has been productive recently. If Flyover clears early and settles comfortably, he could take this field gate to wire.
| Horse | Key Rating |
|---|---|
| Call Me Sir | 89 Fire Number |
| Curlin’s Kaos | 143 CPR |
| Flyover | 131 Fast Fig |
| Prince Dolce | 140 Final Time Rating |
Main Challengers
Call Me Sir enters in sharp form after a strong recent victory at this distance. From the outside post, he should secure a stalking trip and could be dangerous turning for home.
On the Whim is another consistent turf runner capable of hitting the board with the right setup.
Race 7 – Melair Stakes
1 1/16 Miles – Dirt – 3-Year-Old Fillies
This race presents one of the more interesting handicapping puzzles on the card because several runners are trying new scenarios.
Surface Switcher: Run With Liberty
Run With Liberty owns the strongest projected numbers in the field despite switching from turf to dirt.
| Rating | Run With Liberty |
|---|---|
| Fire Number | 89 |
| CPR | 137 |
| Fast Fig | 119 |
| Final Time Rating | 135 |
Her progression has been especially encouraging:
- Final Time Rating improved from 123 to 135
- Fire Number improved from 76 to 89
- Two-for-two routing on turf
The key question is whether she can transfer that form to dirt.
Kyle Frey stays aboard for Jeff Mullins, and the pair has been highly productive together recently.
Favorite: Mohaven
Mohaven is the likely favorite after a visually impressive five-length stakes win sprinting.
The concern is distance. She has excelled in shorter races, and now she stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth for the first time.
Her pedigree offers some hope she can handle it, and Juan Hernandez should have her in a favorable tactical position throughout.
Race 8 – Snow Chief Stakes
1 1/8 Miles – Turf – 3-Year-Olds
The final stakes race on the card may also be the most competitive. Distance becomes the major handicapping factor as several runners attempt nine furlongs for the first time.
Top Numbers
| Horse | Key Ratings |
|---|---|
| Ventry Strand | Top Fire Number, CPR, Final Time Rating |
| Smoovin Saturday | Best Fast Fig |
| Scatalotadingdong | Co-top Final Time Rating |
Favorite Spotlight: He’s a Knockout
He’s a Knockout is undefeated in two starts and clearly talented. However, both wins came sprinting, and now he stretches all the way out to a mile and an eighth.
If Juan Hernandez can get him to relax early, he has every right to contend. Still, this distance question creates an opportunity to look elsewhere for value.
Unrivaled Time
Unrivaled Time owns a Grade 3 victory on turf and has proven capable routing successfully against tougher company.
Last time out, he endured an uncomfortable trip and never really got involved. From the rail post, I’m expecting a more ground-saving journey under Armando Ayuso.
His earlier efforts suggest this longer distance could actually help him.