By Jarrod Horak
Memorial Day racing at Santa Anita Park features three graded stakes races, including the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup, the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes, and the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. I’m using data from the Complete Digest from Today’s Racing Digest to break down the key contenders, pace scenarios, and betting opportunities on the Monday card.
Race 5 — Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup
The Hollywood Gold Cup drew a compact five-horse field, but there are still plenty of handicapping angles to consider. Two of the favorites enter with questions surrounding current form and class consistency.
Projected Pace & Speed Figures
| Horse | Fire Number | CPR | Fast Fig | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McVay | 98 | 123 | – | – |
| Malarchuk | – | – | 129 | – |
| Forged Steel | – | – | – | 143 |
Fire Number ratings measure speed throughout a race, while CPR combines pace, final time, and closing fractions into a comprehensive performance figure.
Forged Steel and McVay are the designated front-runners, and from the rail draw, Forged Steel projects to secure the lead early. In a small field lacking significant pace depth, that tactical edge might become extremely important.
Forged Steel Looks Dangerous on the Front End
Ford Steel enters in sharp current form with consecutive strong final time ratings of 141, 144, and 143 while stretching out from a mile to marathon distances. He won two of his last three starts and posted a sharp Churchill Downs workout on May 18.
Flavien Prat teams up with Saffie Joseph Jr., a productive jockey-trainer combination, and the race setup could allow Ford Steel to control the pace throughout.
Other Contenders
Subsanador was a major player in 2024, but he missed all of 2025 before returning with two disappointing efforts this season. He still owns strong projected figures, but bettors must decide whether he can regain his prior form.
Malarchuk makes his second off the layoff after a solid runner-up finish in a stakes race at Sunland Park. Previously trained by Chad Brown and now in the Michael McCarthy barn, he could improve with Juan Hernandez aboard.
Race 6 — Grade 1 Gamely Stakes
The Gamely Stakes at nine furlongs on turf features several talented fillies and mares, but many of the top contenders appear more effective at one mile than this mile-and-an-eighth distance.
Top Projected Figures
| Horse | Key Ratings |
|---|---|
| Thought Process | Top CPR, Fast Fig, Final Time Rating |
| Rashmi | Co-best Fire Number |
| Take a Breath | Proven at Longer Distances |
Fast Figs incorporate both speed and class, helping identify horses capable of stepping up against tougher competition.
Hang the Moon Returning to Top Form
Hang the Moon is an intriguing shipper for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Flavien Prat. Since joining the Joseph barn, she has shown renewed form at Gulfstream Park with a strong optional claiming victory followed by a narrow loss in stakes company.
Her Southern California resume from 2024 is already proven. She captured the Grade 2 John C. Mabee at Del Mar and the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita, demonstrating both class and comfort over this circuit.
With a few pace horses signed on, Hang the Moon might get the setup she needs to unleash her late kick.
Additional Horses to Use
Thought Process owns the strongest overall figures but must prove she truly wants nine furlongs. Rashmi also does her best work at shorter distances but could be dangerous controlling the pace.
Take a Breath brings stamina to the table after winning at a mile and a quarter earlier this year. If the pace heats up, she becomes dangerous late.
Vronti is another price horse worth considering after back-to-back improving wins for Graham Motion.
Race 8 — Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile
The Shoemaker Mile drew a competitive field of turf milers, though projected inside pace player El Potente was expected to scratch with a fever, significantly changing the complexion of the race.
Updated Figure Leaders
| Horse | Notable Ratings |
|---|---|
| Formidable Man | Top CPR, Fast Fig, Final Time Rating |
| Almendares | Top Projected Fire Number |
Formidable Man Deserves Respect
Formidable Man returns for the first time since finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The Del Mar turf specialist won consecutive graded stakes races at that venue before his Breeders’ Cup effort.
Although he may need this race off the layoff, class alone could carry him a long way against this field.
Seal Team Offers Upset Potential
Seal Team is interesting at a price. The Richard Mandella trainee appears to be training exceptionally well with multiple bullet workouts leading into this race.
He improved his final time rating significantly in the American Stakes last time out and now makes his third start off the layoff, often a productive move for Mandella runners.
Joel Rosario has been riding well since relocating to the West Coast, and Seal Team should get a favorable stalking trip behind the pace.
Other Horses to Include
King of Gosford can improve second off the bench after a solid comeback effort, while Almendares remains a consistent late-running type ideal for trifectas and superfectas.
