Race Previews

Santa Anita: Eddie Logan + Robert Frankel Picks

By Jarrod Horak

Full santa anita picks & analysis: santa anita picks

I’m covering two Wednesday, December 31 stakes at Santa Anita Park using Today’s Racing Digest tools and past performances: the $100,000 Eddie Logan (Race 5) for 2-year-olds at 1 mile on turf, and the G3 $100,000 Robert Frankel (Race 7) for fillies and mares at 1 1/8 miles on turf. If you need Santa Anita PPs, you can get them at Today’s Racing Digest, which is also running a winter meet subscription special.

Eddie Logan field:
1 - Third Beer (8-1)
2 - Plutarch (2-1)
3 - Iriseach (5-1)
4 - Stark Contrast (8-5)
5 - Brigante (20-1)
6 - Caro Buono (12-1)
7 - Unrivaled Time (6-1)

The $100,000 Eddie Logan is for 2-year-olds traveling one mile on the turf course. It is the 5th race on Dec. 31 and the scheduled post time is 5:00 PM ET.

Robert Frankel Stakes field:
1 - Public Assembly (8-5)
2 - Sun Of Hill (10-1)
3 - Ima Joker (30-1)
4 - As Catch Can (4-1)
5 - Watchtower (5-1)
6 - Paradise Lake (2-1)
7 - Mahina (12-1)

The Grade 3, $100,000 Robert Frankel Stakes is for fillies and mares traveling 1 1/8 miles on the turf course. It is the 7th race on Dec. 31 with a scheduled post time of 6:00 PM ET

How I Approach These Races

I start with the Today’s Racing Digest Speed & Pace Forecasts—Fire Number, CPR, Fast Figs, and Final Time Rating—then layer in trip/setup and running style notes to rank contenders for today’s conditions.

Race 5 — Eddie Logan Stakes ($100,000)

2-year-olds • 1 mile • Turf • Scheduled post: 5:00 p.m. ET

TRD Forecasts (Speed & Pace)

Metric Top Horse Figure
Fire Number #3 Iris Shot 88
CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) #4 Stark Contrast 145
Fast Fig #7 Unrivaled Time 124
Final Time Rating #4 Stark Contrast 140
Digest Pro Tip: Combine Fire with CPR to separate sustained speed from overall race-shape quality; when both align, those runners are your safest keys.

Field Overview

  • #1 Third Beer (8/1) — Last out 56/1 in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf; finished 12th of 14. Trainer Tim Yakteen.
  • #2 Plutarch (2/1) — Bob Baffert; Juan Hernandez rides. Even-money last time at Del Mar (1 1/8m turf), drew post 11 and powered home by more than four lengths.
  • #3 Iris Shot — Phil D’Amato; second in the Cecil B. DeMille (Nov 30).
  • #4 Stark Contrast (8/5) — Michael McCarthy; Kazushi Kimura rides back. 58/1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and missed by three-quarters after tracking.
  • #5 Bgante (20/1) — Doug O’Neill; likely forward. Faded to 6th in the Cecil B. DeMille.
  • #6 Carol Bueno (12/1) — Out of the DeMille as well; finished 5th at 18/1. Trainer Leonard Powell; Armando Ayuso up.
  • #7 Unrivaled Time — Leonard Powell; won the Cecil B. DeMille at 5/1 under Diego Herrera (Cal-bred by Not This Time).
Insider Tip: Final Time Rating is a par-adjusted finishing strength number—use it to gauge who can actually hit today’s par when it counts.

Full Analysis

I’m on #2 Plutarch as my top choice. He’s already stakes-tested, finishes consistently, and just posted a visually sharp maiden win at 1 1/8 miles on turf from a wide draw. His Today’s Racing Digest Final Time Ratings show the right progression and reliability: 120 → 122 → 137 → 123 → 125, with solid closing fractions (22.7 two back; 23.4 last out). The question at a flat mile is timing the run; I’m comfortable he can land in time.

  • Debut: 1-mile dirt at Del Mar; split next-out winners.
  • G3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf: rallied from last to be 2nd.
  • G1 American Pharoah: 3rd, a nose behind stablemate Desert Gate; clear of the rest.
  • Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (1m turf, Oct 31): 3rd as the favored maiden.
  • MSW (1 1/8m turf, Nov 30): blasted home from post 11 by more than four under Flavien Pratt.
Bettor’s Edge: When a late runner shows repeatable closing fractions and keeps posting competitive Final Time Ratings, you can trust the finish if the pace isn’t crawling.

My Betting Takeaway

Top pick: #2 Plutarch
Underneath contenders: #4 Stark Contrast, #7 Unrivaled Time, #3 Iris Shot
I’ll key Plutarch on top and build saver tickets with Stark Contrast’s CPR/Final Time Rating edge.

Quick Link — Get the Same Figures I’m Using: See the Speed & Pace Forecasts (Fire, CPR, Fast Figs, Final Time Rating) in the Complete Digest.

Race 7 — Robert Frankel Stakes (G3, $100,000)

Fillies & Mares • 1 1/8 miles • Turf • Scheduled post: 6:00 p.m. ET

TRD Forecasts (Speed, Pace & Profile)

  • Best Fire Number: Sun of Hill (96); Paradise Lake next (95)
  • Best CPR: Public Assembly
  • Best Fast Fig: Public Assembly (129)
  • Best Final Time Rating: Paradise Lake (143)
  • Track Profile: Midpack wins 46% at this distance on turf. Midpack types include Public Assembly, I’m a Joker, Paradise Lake.
Pro Insight: Track Profile is a fast way to pressure-test your pick—if your horse’s running style matches the most successful lane at the distance, you can be more aggressive.

Field Overview

  • #1 Public Assembly (8/5) — Inside draw for Phil D’Amato; second by a neck in the G3 Red Carpet (1 3/8m turf). Strong forecast numbers (best CPR, best Fast Fig 129).
  • #2 Sun of Hill (10/1) — Phil D’Amato; 44/1 in the Red Carpet, rallied to 4th; tops Fire (96).
  • #3 I’m a Joker (30/1) — Doug O’Neill; potential lone speed in a race light on front-runners. 2 wins at Santa Anita. At 1 1/8m: 0-for-5 but 4/5 in-the-money.
  • #4 As Catch Can — Jonathan Thomas; unlikely to run after a recent start in the G1 American Oaks (finished 9th).
  • #5 Watchtower (5/1) — Richard Baltas; split the field in the Swingtime after a third in the G2 Yellow Ribbon earlier this year.
  • #6 Paradise Lake (2/1) — Peter Eurton; Juan Hernandez rides. Loves 1 1/8m and Santa Anita.
  • #7 Mahina (12/1) — Joel Rosario named; third in the G3 Bayakoa on dirt last out; back to turf; four-time turf winner.
Insider Tip: CPR blends pace and final time from a representative race—great for identifying who can sustain the right energy distribution at today’s trip.

Full Analysis

I make #6 Paradise Lake my top choice. She’s 3-for-7 at Santa Anita (with two more shows) and 2-for-3 at 1 1/8 miles with another show—both wins at the distance came this year (May 26 tracking from the rail; Oct 10 rallying from fifth). In the Red Carpet, she finished 1.5 lengths behind Public Assembly going 1 3/8 miles; cutting back to 1 1/8 with a likely midpack/stalking trip fits her sweet spot. The forecast backs her up with the best Final Time Rating (143) and a near-top Fire.

#1 Public Assembly is my second choice—she rates highly on CPR and Fast Fig (129), draws inside for a ground-saving trip, and projects a midpack position that aligns with the Track Profile. The knock: she’s 0-for-2 at 1 1/8 miles on turf without a top-3 finish, so I’ll demand a fair price.

For third, I’ll use #5 Watchtower. I don’t love the projected shape for her, but she has back class lines and can grind into a share.

Rounding out the quartet, #3 I’m a Joker could be the one to catch in a race that lacks true speed. She’s proven around Santa Anita and is 4-for-5 in-the-money at 1 1/8 even without a win. Not my top to finish the deal, but dangerous to hang around for a minor award.

Bettor’s Edge: When Track Profile favors midpack and there’s only one possible pacesetter, upgrade the best-positioned stalker (here, Paradise Lake) and use the speed horse defensively underneath.

My Betting Takeaway

Top pick: #6 Paradise Lake
Next: #1 Public Assembly, #5 Watchtower, #3 I’m a Joker
I’m betting Paradise Lake enjoys the trip advantage at 1 1/8 and can turn the tables on Public Assembly.

Quick Link — Build Your Ticket with Confidence: Get the Complete Digest for Santa Anita to view the same Fire, CPR, Fast Figs, Final Time Rating, and Track Profile I’m referencing from Today’s Racing Digest.

Santa Anita runs five straight days from December 31 through January 4, and I’m covering full cards each day. If you’re playing these stakes, don’t guess—use the same Today’s Racing Digest tools I’m using here. Grab Santa Anita past performances or the Complete Digest, and share your opinions before post time.