By Jarrod Horak
The Road to the Kentucky Derby rolls through Santa Anita Park with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, a $500,000 event for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. This is one of the most important West Coast prep races, and I’ve been tracking all the Derby points races closely—producing 13 winners, along with multiple exacta and trifecta finishes along the way.
Using data from the Complete Digest, I’m breaking down this field from a pace, speed, and class perspective before giving you my contenders.
Meet the Field
- #1 Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert) – Dominant maiden winner last out
- #2 Potente (Bob Baffert) – San Felipe Stakes winner, undefeated
- #3 Vitruvian Man – Longshot facing a big class test
- #4 Robusta – Strong runner-up effort in the San Felipe
- #5 So Happy – Grade 2 winner trying to rebound
- #6 Start the Ride – Appears overmatched
- #7 Intrepido – Grade 1 winner as a juvenile, improving
Speed & Pace Breakdown
Key Today’s Racing Digest Metrics
| Horse | Fire # | CPR | Fast Fig | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherokee Nation | 100 | 134 | 125 | 147 |
| Potente | 96 | 137 | 128 | 143 |
| Robusta | 100 | 133 | 128 | 143 |
| So Happy | 94 | 123 | 125 | 135 |
Fire Number highlights early and sustained speed, and Cherokee Nation and Robusta both top the field there. Meanwhile, Potente leads in CPR, signaling the most complete performance profile.
The Final Time Rating shows Cherokee Nation clearly on top with a 147—making him the fastest horse in the field based on recent performance.
Class & Form Analysis
Cherokee Nation is the wildcard. He struggled in prior stakes attempts but exploded last time out with a 10-length maiden win, earning elite pace and speed figures. That effort suggests major upside.
Potente is undefeated and already a graded stakes winner, while Robusta proved competitive at this level in the San Felipe.
Intrepido brings strong back class, including a Grade 1 win at two, and could improve second off the layoff after skipping the San Felipe to target this race.
Contenders
#1 Cherokee Nation
Explosive maiden win last out with elite figures across the board. From the rail, he should be forwardly placed and could control the race.
🔥 Bettor’s Edge
Cherokee Nation’s last race produced a 155 pace rating and 147 final time rating—a combination that often signals a breakout horse ready to dominate stakes company.
#2 Potente
Undefeated with strong numbers. Plenty of upside but faces tougher competition here.
#3 Vitruvian Man
Simply looks outclassed against this level of competition.
#4 Robusta
Improved last time but needs to prove he can string together strong efforts.
#5 So Happy
Disappointed in his first route attempt. Needs to prove he can handle two turns.
#6 Start the Ride
Another runner who appears overmatched on figures and class.
#7 Intrepido
Should improve second off the layoff. Dangerous if he returns to his top juvenile form.