By Jarrod Horak
Santa Anita’s closing-weekend feature is Sunday’s Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano Stakes, a $100,000 turf marathon contested at the demanding distance of 1 3/4 miles. The race attracted a field of ten older horses.
The race serves as a true test of stamina, and with several entrants stepping into unfamiliar territory distance-wise, handicappers will need to determine which horses can maintain their finishing kick over the extended journey.
Pace Picture
One of the more interesting aspects of this race is the apparent lack of early speed.
Goldeneye appears to be the most likely pacesetter, with Poor Connection potentially sitting close from the outside post. Beyond those two, most of the field does its best running from off the pace.
That could result in a tactical affair where positioning becomes just as important as numbers.
The Favorite: Gold Phoenix Still the Horse to Beat
It’s impossible to discuss this race without starting with Gold Phoenix.
The veteran eight-year-old has built an impressive resume, earning more than $2.3 million while competing almost exclusively in graded stakes company. His recent seventh-place finish in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs looks disappointing on paper, but a troubled trip contributed to that result.
Before that effort, Gold Phoenix captured the Grade 3 San Luis Rey Stakes at Santa Anita over 1 1/2 miles, proving once again that long-distance turf racing remains his specialty.
Distance is not a concern, class is not a concern, and his connections know exactly how to prepare him for races like this. If he brings his best effort, he’ll be extremely difficult to beat.
The challenge for bettors is deciding whether the short price offers enough value.
Why American Hope Looks Dangerous
For those searching for an alternative, American Hope is a compelling option.
After returning from an extended layoff earlier this year, the Brian Koriner trainee appears to be rounding into top form. His most recent start produced a strong victory at Santa Anita, where he rallied from off the pace despite drawing the far outside post.
What makes that performance particularly attractive is the way he finished. American Hope earned the highest projected Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR) in the field, a figure that incorporates pace, final time, and closing strength.
His ability to accelerate late suggests that additional distance could actually help rather than hinder his chances.
At a likely better price than Gold Phoenix, he offers the type of value many handicappers seek in graded stakes races.
Living Life Continues to Improve
Living Life enters this race off arguably the best performance of his career.
Last time out, he unleashed a powerful late rally to go from last to first while winning at 1 1/4 miles. The effort produced the best projected Fire Number and Final Time Rating in Sunday’s field.
The addition of Joel Rosario only strengthens his case.
The biggest question is whether he can stretch his form another half-mile. If he handles the added distance, he has every right to be a major factor turning for home.
Don’t Ignore Grogu at a Price
Longshot players may want to give Grogu another look.
Recent form leaves plenty to be desired, but there are races in his past performances that suggest he could outrun his odds. Most notably, he won over the Santa Anita turf course last fall at 1 1/4 miles and posted numbers that would make him competitive against this group.
Drawing the rail should allow him to save ground throughout the race, a valuable advantage in a marathon event where every bit of energy conservation matters.
He may not be the most likely winner, but he could spice up the trifecta and superfecta payouts.