By Jarrod Horak
The Penn Oaks at Penn National on Friday, May 29th features a competitive group of three-year-old fillies going one mile on the turf for a $150,000 purse. This race goes as Race 5 with a scheduled post time of 7:12 p.m. Eastern, and I think this is an intriguing betting race because there are several lightly raced fillies with upside, along with a couple of runners that could take significant money despite having legitimate questions to answer.
The past performance data for this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest. If you’re playing the Penn National card, make sure to grab the Digest products to follow along with the pace ratings, Final Time Ratings, and projected race shape.
Penn Oaks Field Overview
The field includes a pair of fillies exiting the same prep race, the Sanibel Island, along with a European shipper and a few pace players that could shape how this turf mile unfolds.
| Horse | Morning Line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Vekoma View | 4-1 | Versatile filly with improving figures and tactical speed |
| Somemunny to Love | 30-1 | Possible pace factor stretching back out in distance |
| Sutura | 20-1 | Surface switcher with early speed potential |
| Call On Me | 5-1 | Tactical runner capable of working out ideal trip |
| Final Accord | 5-2 | Talented sprinter trying to prove route ability |
| Bandiagara | 9-5 | European import making U.S. debut |
| Smexy | 6-1 | Wide-trip victim in U.S. debut |
Top Contenders and Race Analysis
Vekoma View Is Trending the Right Way
Vekoma View has a good overall progression pattern. Her Final Time Rating has improved in all three career starts:
| Race | Final Time Rating | Pace Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Career Debut | 108 | 84 |
| Maiden Win | 117 | 122 |
| Sanibel Island Stakes | 126 | 143 |
That improving pattern is exactly what I want to see from a lightly raced three-year-old filly moving into a stakes event like this.
Last time in the Sanibel Island, she actually ran better than the running line might initially suggest. She saved ground early, briefly lost position because she didn’t have room, then re-rallied late once the inside opened. The key for me is that she handled a faster pace scenario and still finished well.
From the rail, Tyler Gaffalione should have options. If the pace comes up soft, she can sit close. If others go, she can save ground and stalk. That versatility gives her a possible tactical advantage in this field.
Smexy Could Improve Second Time in the U.S.
I think there’s a legitimate excuse for Smexy’s fifth-place finish in the Sanibel Island. She drew post 10 in a 10-horse field, broke last, raced wide throughout, and still finished only a little more than two lengths behind the winner.
She earned a 126 Final Time Rating while chasing a strong 147 Pace Rating, so the effort was competitive with the best numbers in this field.
The concern is obvious: she drew outside again. Wide stalking trips rarely work well in turf routes, especially at this level. If Johnny Velazquez can somehow tuck in and save ground into the first turn, she becomes dangerous late.
Call on Me Looks Like a Reliable Player
Call on Me is another filly that makes a lot of sense in this spot. After a solid debut, she improved sharply second time out with a maiden win at Keeneland going a mile and a sixteenth.
| Race | Final Time Rating | Pace Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Debut | 101 | 84 |
| Maiden Win | 116 | 111 |
| Optional Claiming Third | 110 | 128 |
Last time, she had to stalk wide from post 9 at Churchill Downs, which is not an ideal setup in a turf route. From post 4 here, she projects to get a much cleaner stalking trip.
Rusty Arnold does well with these developing turf fillies, and this one looks capable of getting first run on the deeper closers.
Questions Surround the Favorites
Final Accord has talent, but I’m not convinced she wants one mile. Her best races have come sprinting on turf, where she earned strong figures including a Grade 3 win at Aqueduct.
She returned from a layoff with a respectable fourth-place finish despite some trip trouble, but stretching back out around two turns remains the big question.
Bandiagara is the likely favorite and brings intrigue as a European import for Miguel Clement. Manny Franco rides, and the trainer/jockey combination has had success together.
The concern is price versus uncertainty. She hasn’t raced since August of last year and is making her first North American start. Sometimes these European shippers fire immediately, but at a short price I’m willing to take a wait-and-see approach.
Potential Pace Scenario
Sutura and Somemunny to Love both have enough early speed to contribute to the pace, while Vekoma View and Call on Me should secure favorable tactical positions just behind the leaders.
If the pace gets heated early, Smexy becomes more dangerous late. If the fractions come up moderate, tactical runners may dominate this race from start to finish.