By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 3 Penn Mile at Penn National on Friday, May 29th features an intriguing field of talented three-year-olds going one mile on the turf for a $400,000 purse. This race drew a mix of proven graded stakes runners, improving turf specialists, and a few lightly raced runners with upside.
Using the race sheets from Today’s Racing Digest, I’m breaking down the pace setup, speed figures, recent form cycles, and wagering value in this year’s Penn Mile.
Pace Scenario Looks Competitive
The early pace should be honest with multiple runners showing speed or tactical aggression. Horses like Bonsai Warrior and Baytown Dreamer both figure to show speed early, while Honey Dutch is another runner who consistently places himself close to the front.
That setup could create ideal stalking opportunities for horses sitting just behind the leaders, especially runners capable of producing a strong finishing kick while still maintaining tactical position.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1 – Bonsai Warrior (12-1)
Bonsai Warrior exits a solid dirt sprint effort at Monmouth where he narrowly missed by a neck while earning a competitive figure. The concern is surface and distance. He switches to turf while stretching out to a mile against significantly tougher company.
He could contribute to the pace, but there are questions about whether he can sustain that speed late against proven turf runners.
2 – Baytown Dreamer (15-1)
Baytown Dreamer has danced plenty of tough dances this season, competing in races like the Pat Day Mile, Jeff Ruby Stakes, Southwest Stakes, and Smarty Jones.
His form is extremely inconsistent from a figure standpoint, but his turf races have generally been better. He owns tactical speed and could impact the pace throughout the opening stages.
The challenge is whether his best race is good enough against this field.
3 – Classic Nofty (15-1)
Classic Nofty enters off a Pennsylvania-bred allowance victory, but this is a major class test. His recent figure improved, yet he still needs another significant move forward to threaten the top contenders.
He projects as a midpack runner hoping for a favorable setup.
4 – Teddy’s Rocket (3-1)
Teddy’s Rocket remains one of the more intriguing runners in the field because we still may not know his true ceiling.
He won his Saratoga debut impressively at a mile on turf and followed with a troubled trip in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes. After a lengthy layoff, his return in the Woodhaven was compromised almost immediately after a poor start.
That race may simply be a toss-out effort.
Second start off the layoff could produce a much stronger performance, especially if he finally works out a clean trip from start to finish.
5 – Immortalised (4-1)
Immortalised enters this race in outstanding form for Brendan Walsh after rattling off three straight turf victories at Gulfstream Park.
What stands out most is the improving figure pattern:
| Race | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|
| Allowance Win | 116 |
| Next Victory | 129 |
| Cutler Bay Stakes | 137 |
The pace figures are equally strong, showing he can maintain position while still finishing effectively. John Velazquez retains the mount after guiding him to victories in his last two starts.
He owns tactical speed, favorable current form, and confidence from repeated wins.
That combination makes him extremely dangerous in this field.
6 – Honey Dutch (2-1)
Honey Dutch is one of the most reliable horses in the race from a consistency standpoint, but there’s one major issue: he doesn’t finish the job often enough.
He’s finished in the top three in eight of nine career starts and exits a strong third-place effort in the Grade 1 American Turf at Churchill Downs.
The figures fit perfectly:
- 137
- 134
- 129
- 135
- 135
Still, despite consistently firing quality races, he has just one career victory.
At a short price, he may be more valuable underneath in exactas and trifectas rather than on top.
7 – Alpyland (5-2)
Alpyland is a very logical contender and may be the most reliable favorite in the field.
He’s undefeated in three starts at one mile and already owns victories in both the Columbia Stakes and Dania Beach Stakes.
His recent figures stack up extremely well:
- 138
- 141
- 135
- 129
Unlike Honey Dutch, Alpyland consistently finds ways to win races.
The primary concern is trip dynamics from the outside post. Javier Castellano will need to avoid losing too much ground into the first turn while still securing good tactical position.
If he works out the right trip, he absolutely fits.