By Jarrod Horak
The seventh race at Aqueduct on Saturday, May 23 is the $150,000 Paradise Creek Stakes, a six-furlong turf sprint for three-year-olds on the outer turf course. This competitive field features a pair of inside pace players, multiple stakes-tested runners, and a few improving types that could take a step forward at the right time.
Using the past performances from Today’s Racing Digest, I broke down the field from both a pace and figure standpoint to determine which runners are most likely to get the right trip and deliver their best effort.
Projected Pace Scenario
The pace complexion looks fairly straightforward on paper. Chasing Freedom and Track Tiger appear to be the primary speed influences, with both runners showing consistent front-end intent in recent starts.
From the rail, Chasing Freedom should be aggressive early after wiring a field at Fair Grounds in his maiden victory. However, I do not expect him to get an uncontested lead here.
Track Tiger has tactical speed and picks up aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche, who is unlikely to concede early position. Just behind those two, horses like Intricate Spirit and Twilight Delight should work out stalking trips within striking range.
Closers such as Azizam and Itza Lock may benefit if the pace becomes heated, but this race does not project to collapse the way the Palisades Stakes did at Keeneland.
Digest Figure Analysis
1 – Chasing Freedom
Chasing Freedom earned a 146 Pace Rating and 128 Final Time Rating in his maiden victory at Fair Grounds. The numbers are respectable, especially for a lightly raced horse making his first start against winners.
The key question is whether he can reproduce that effort while stretching from five and a half furlongs to six furlongs against significantly tougher company.
2 – Track Tiger
Track Tiger owns some of the stronger sprint credentials in the field. Two starts back, he wired an allowance field with a 140 Pace Rating and 144 Final Time Rating while earning a 96 Fire Number.
Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the John Shear Stakes after setting the pace throughout. The concern is whether softer ground at Aqueduct could dull his California-based speed profile if forecasted rain impacts the course condition.
3 – Intricate Spirit
Intricate Spirit is the horse I want coming into this race. His disappointing effort in the Palisades Stakes is easier to forgive when reviewing the race flow.
That Keeneland turf sprint featured an extremely fast pace with fractions of 21.0 and 44.3, completely favoring deeper runners. Intricate Spirit was unable to secure his preferred forward position and never became involved.
Prior to that effort, he consistently showed quality sprint form:
- Won the Grade 3 Futurity Stakes at Aqueduct with a 135 Final Time Rating and 161 Pace Rating
- Third in the Texas Glitter Stakes while tracking the pace
- Strong Saratoga maiden victory sprinting on turf
The addition of blinkers is especially interesting here. Trainer Miguel Clement wins at a profitable rate with horses adding blinkers, and this projected pace setup looks much more favorable.
Intricate Spirit’s best races have come when sitting close to the pace rather than chasing impossible fractions. With blinkers added and a more manageable pace scenario projected, this setup looks significantly better than his last start at Keeneland.
4 – Capanaparo
Capanaparo has not yet matched the top figure horses in this field, though his lone turf effort at Saratoga was encouraging. He rallied for second behind a next-out winner in that debut.
If weather forces this race off the turf, he becomes more intriguing on dirt. On grass, however, he still needs improvement.
5 – Bronze Bullet
Bronze Bullet has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, finishing in the top three in six of seven starts before his fourth-place effort in the English Channel Stakes.
The cutback from one mile to six furlongs could sharpen his late kick, but I question whether this distance is truly ideal. With Flavien Prat aboard, he could also take more wagering support than I am comfortable accepting.
6 – Azizam
Azizam benefited substantially from the pace collapse in the Palisades Stakes when rallying for third. While he should pass horses late again here, this projected pace setup appears less favorable.
He remains usable underneath in vertical wagers, but I do not see him getting the same ideal race flow.
7 – Glorious Boy
Glorious Boy enters off a series of respectable route performances, including efforts in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes and Dania Beach Stakes. His recent figures are solid, but they came around two turns.
The question becomes whether he can transfer that form effectively back to a sharp six-furlong turf sprint.
8 – Twilight Delight
Twilight Delight is one of the more intriguing horses in the field. He has only three career starts and already demonstrated multiple running styles.
He wired the field in his Ellis Park debut, pressed the pace at Kentucky Downs, and rallied from farther back in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita when finishing third behind quality competition.
That Speakeasy effort produced a 128 Final Time Rating, and there is room for additional improvement as a three-year-old returning from the layoff.
The outside draw is not ideal for this configuration at Aqueduct, but his versatility could help offset that disadvantage.
9 – Itza Lock
Like Azizam, Itza Lock benefited from the pace setup in the Palisades Stakes. He rallied from well back after breaking last and finished just behind Azizam.
The outside draw makes his task difficult, though he remains usable underneath in trifectas and superfectas.