By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park is the next Kentucky Oaks prep race on the calendar. With a $1 million purse and 200 total Oaks qualifying points on the line, this mile-and-a-sixteenth test for three-year-old fillies drew a compact field of six headed by even money favorite Explora.
I broke down the field using the Digest past performances, focusing on pace, final time ratings, and projected race shape. Here’s how I see this race unfolding.
Field Overview & Pace Projection
This race sets up with a clear tactical structure. Empath figures to show early speed stretching out, while Explora should sit just off the pace from the outside. Horses like Counting Stars and Sticker Shock will look to capitalize late if the pace softens.
Key Pace Influencers
- Empath (Post 2): Likely pacesetter stretching out from sprint company
- Explora (Post 6): Ideal pressing trip outside
- Sticker Shock (Post 5): Tactical and versatile
Contender Breakdown
1 – Search Party (6-1)
Search Party benefits from the rail and should save ground throughout. She received a 140 Final Time Rating for her win in the Martha Washington in February but that was not a productive race, and her 125 in the Honeybee is probably more indicative of her true ability.
2 – Empath (20-1)
Empath is improving but faces a steep class test stretching out from maiden company. She could impact the pace early but is unlikely to sustain it late.
3 – Counting Stars (5-2)
Counting Stars is one of the main dangers. She rebounded nicely last time with a strong second-place finish in the Honeybee, earning a 132 Final Time Rating. Her prior stakes wins at Oaklawn show she belongs at this level.
The question is upside—after several starts at Oaklawn, she may already be near her ceiling.
4 – Taken by the Wind (15-1)
She’ll need a major rebound after a poor effort in the Honeybee. Even her prior stakes wins produced figures that fall short against this group.
5 – Sticker Shock (3-1)
Sticker Shock is the intriguing upside play. She’s lightly raced and improving rapidly, and comes off back-to-back wins at this distance. Her 125 Final Time Rating last out puts her within striking range.
The concern is the removal of Lasix and stepping into stakes company for the first time, but her trajectory suggests she could take another step forward.
6 – Explora (1-1)
Explorer is the most consistent and accomplished runner in the field. She exits a strong win in the Honeybee Stakes where she pressed the pace and held off Counting Stars. Her recent 135 Final Time Rating is the best in this field, and she’s proven at both the distance and class level.
With her outside draw, she should once again secure a clean pressing trip before making her move turning for home.
Explora’s consistency (7 starts: 4 wins, 3 seconds) makes her the most reliable win candidate, especially in a race with a predictable pace setup.