By Jarrod Horak
On Sunday, March 1, I’m breaking down two major Kentucky prep races at Oaklawn Park: the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes (Race 9), a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race, and the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes (Race 11), a Kentucky Derby 2026 points race.
For this analysis, I’m using the Complete Digest, which provides the Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Ratings that shape my pace and class projections.
Race 9: Honeybee Stakes (G3)
Three-Year-Old Fillies – 1 1/16 Miles – Main Track
We have a competitive 10-horse field. From a pace standpoint, this race sets up for a presser. At 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn, pressers win 41.7% of the time, compared to 16.7% for front-runners. That profile is key.
Contenders Overview
Explorer (Top Pick)
Explorer has tactical speed and fits the ideal pressing profile. Two of her last three races featured big pace ratings (159 and 156), including a strong runner-up finish after doing the pace dirty work.
She was dominant in a seven-furlong stakes at Santa Anita earlier this year and followed that with a gritty second routing. With Flavien Prat aboard and a strong recent workout (59 flat, best of 45), she looks ready.
From post 9, she should sit just off the pace and get first run turning for home.
My Betting Takeaway: Explorer’s tactical speed plus Oaklawn’s pressing bias makes her my top choice.
Search Party (Second)
Search Party is improving and owns the best last-out Final Time Rating (140). She’s won back-to-back route races at Oaklawn and has tactical ability.
The question: Can she deliver three strong Oaklawn route efforts in a row?
My Betting Takeaway: Major win threat; must use in all vertical wagers.
Sneaky Good (Third)
Brad Cox trains this improving filly, who stretches out after earning identical 119 Final Time Ratings in three straight starts. Cox hits at 29% stretching runners out.
If she handles two turns, she’s dangerous.
My Betting Takeaway: Stretch-out upside makes her an exotic factor.
Counting Stars (Fourth)
She was heavily favored in the Martha Washington but disappointed. Her prior form and 92 Fire Number say she fits. If she rebounds, she’s competitive.
My Betting Takeaway: Bounce-back candidate at a square price.
Race 11: Rebel Stakes (G2)
Three-Year-Olds – 1 1/16 Miles – Main Track – $1,000,000 Purse
This is one of the premier Kentucky Derby prep races nationally. With Bravaro scratching, we’re looking at a nine-horse field.
Again, Oaklawn’s 1 1/16-mile profile favors pressers.
Speed & Pace Forecast Leader
| Horse | Fire # | CPR | Fast Fig | Final Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silent Tactic | 102 | 158 | 129 | 150 |
Silent Tactic leads on projected figures but is a closer (22% win rate at this distance). I’m leaning toward tactical speed instead.
Contenders Overview
Litmus Test (Top Pick)
Bob Baffert has won the Rebel eight times, and Litmus Test looks primed.
His Final Time Ratings progression:
122 → 125 → 128 → 138 → 143.
That steady climb is what I want to see in a Derby prep. He’s faced top company, including multiple Grade 1 events, and broke through in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity.
With the inside post (after the scratch), he should save ground and press the pace.
My Betting Takeaway: Tactical speed + ascending speed figures = top selection.
Blackout Time (Second)
Lightly raced with strong upside. He hasn’t run since October but shows a sharp recent bullet work at Oaklawn.
He has positional speed, which fits the track profile. Fitness is the question.
My Betting Takeaway: Major threat if ready off the layoff.
Silent Tactic (Third)
Improving colt who jumped to a 150 Final Time Rating winning the Southwest. Proven stamina and consistency.
As a closer, he’ll need the right setup.
My Betting Takeaway: Legitimate win contender but pace dependent.
Rancho Santa Fe (Fourth)
Improving numbers (jumped to 140 last out). Wide trip two back; better setup last time. Interesting exotic piece.
My Betting Takeaway: Use underneath at a price.