Los Alamitos Futurity Picks Horse-by-Horse Analysis
American King (5)

Horak tosses him to the bottom and it’s not a mystery why. He was last of six in a dirt sprint won by Provenance in the debut, then stretched out and moved to turf and was an even fourth in his second start. That’s a long way from graded dirt route company. He needs to get faster in a hurry, and this field isn’t built to give him any favors. Overmatched unless chaos hits.

Captivator (6)

He did what he was supposed to do in easier spots: pressed a pace and was clearly second best first out, then went to the front and aired as the favorite second time. Horak also notes the blinkers come off, which reads like an attempt to get him to relax for two turns. From the outside post he should be involved early again, and that’s both the appeal and the risk. If he carries that speed, he’s dangerous for a slice; if he doesn’t, he’s the one setting the table for the stalkers.

Provenance (2)

Horak ranks him fourth and we get the “good, not flashy” vibe. He finished third as the beaten favorite in his debut, and the winner Intrepido came right back to win the American Pharoah (G1), so the form isn’t empty. Then Provenance turned back, made the lead, and won by about two lengths on September 27. He stretches back out now, and the pedigree is loud—Into Mischief on top, and Monomoy Girl as the dam (she stacked graded wins in her prime). Kyle Frey takes the call, and Horak points out Frey already won this race with Baffert in 2023 (Wynstock). The ask is improvement, not regression. He’s usable, but we’re not paying a short price hoping.

Blacksmith (4)

This is Horak’s “rebound” play for third. He was clearly second best as the favorite in the sprint won by Acknowledgemeplz on October 25, and the top two were well clear of the rest. Second time out he was a strong favorite again and never really got involved in a bigger field, just splitting the pack. Now he stretches out after two sprints, and Horak leans on the idea that he’s bred for it and can improve with the move. Rider change matters too: Kazushi Kimura climbs aboard after teaming up with Baffert to win the local Starlet (G2) last weekend. If he runs back to his better try, he’s live for a minor award.

Acknowledge Me Please (1)

Horak has him second and we can see the trip before the gates open: rail speed trying to take them a long way. In his sprint bow he set a pressured pace and split a pair of next-out winners, so the effort had teeth. Second time out he made the running from the inside and beat Blacksmith by less than a length. Now he stretches out after two sprints, which is a legit two-year-old angle when the horse is naturally fast and keeps finding. Horak’s point is pace impact from the rail—he should be right there from jump street. The question is whether he gets brave and relaxes, or whether pressure turns him into a late target.

Litmus Test (3)

Horak lands on the favorite, even after thinking about trying to beat him at first glance. The resume is simply stronger than this field: he won his Del Mar sprint debut as the favorite under Juan Hernandez, then was an even fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He stretched out next, showed speed, and was best of the rest in third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Last time he chased and finished an even fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), beaten less than two lengths. That’s real seasoning. He’s the $875k Nyquist colt, he reconnects with Hernandez, and Horak leans heavily on the Today’s Racing Digest Final Time Ratings climbing every start. The pace setup also fits: he’s not married to the lead and should stalk and pounce. In this particular renewal—with maidens and question marks—Horak calls him the most likely winner.

How to Use Today’s Racing Digest

Horak is using Today’s Racing Digest past performances as the backbone of the video, especially the Final Time Ratings and the way they’re trending. That’s how he separates “pretty win” from “repeatable effort,” and it’s why he gives Litmus Test the edge—stronger class lines plus improving numbers.

If you pull the Los Alamitos past performances for December 13 at Today’s Racing Digest, you can follow the same path: confirm who’s driving the pace, check who’s stretching out with the right kind of foundation, then line that up with the Today’s Racing Digest figures Horak references.

If you’re betting the Los Alamitos card, grab the Today’s Racing Digest Complete Digest for December 13 and run this Futurity like Horak does—pace first, trip second, figures to confirm. And if you want more than one race, you can get his entire tip sheet here.