By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 3 Indiana Derby headlines the Saturday card at Horseshoe Indianapolis, offering a $300,000 purse for three-year-olds competing at 1 1/16 miles.
Let’s go through the field using recent Today’s Racing Digest performances, pace scenario, and speed figures.
Pace Analysis
A few entrants appear intent on the lead, including Creole Chrome, Out of the Woods, and potentially Desert Gate if he remains in the field. All three have shown quality early speed and the projected pace could become contested through the opening stages.
That scenario may favor horses capable of sitting just behind the leaders before launching their bids in the stretch.
Contenders
Zihnal (#3)
Zihnal offers value at a projected double-digit price.
The Jonathan Thomas trainee has shown steady improvement in his maiden dirt starts and could continue progressing while saving ground from an inner post. Although this represents a significant class test, his improving main track speed figures suggest he has room to move forward.
He appears especially attractive as a longshot underneath in exotic wagers.
Our Money Man (#4)
Our Money Man has quietly developed into one of the most consistent runners in this division.
His recent performances include multiple competitive speed figures, and he has already proven he belongs against quality company. Unlike several rivals who need improvement, Our Money Man has repeatedly delivered solid efforts while racing relatively close to the pace.
His consistency makes him one of the most reliable horses in the race and a logical top three threat.
Creole Chrome (#6)
Creole Chrome exits a visually impressive 18-length victory, but that performance came against considerably softer competition. His previous graded stakes efforts were substantially slower, making regression against this field a legitimate concern.
Out of the Woods (#7)
Out of the Woods has been in excellent recent form, winning back-to-back dirt routes before finishing second in the Delaware Derby.
His early speed should place him near the front throughout the race. The concern is whether the projected pace becomes too demanding, leaving him vulnerable during the final furlong.
Leading Change (#8)
Leading Change enters the Indiana Derby after an eye-catching debut victory at Churchill Downs, where he stalked the pace from the outside post and drew away to win by more than six lengths.
Trainer Brad Cox is frequently patient with talented young horses, and the decision to move directly into graded stakes company suggests the colt has continued to train well.
Although this will be his first start around two turns and first against winners, he possesses plenty of upside and appears capable of taking another step forward.
Desert Gate (#9)
Desert Gate is cross-entered in the Iowa Derby and his trainer Bob Baffert has indicated that he is more likely to run at Prairie Meadows. If he does run here, he deserves respect, but he may attract significant wagering support without offering much value.
Remaining Entrants
Lighter (#1), Mr. T (#2), and Bricklin (#5), would need notable improvement to threaten the top selections. Bricklin is also entered in the Iowa Derby.
