Gulfstream Park's Tropical Park Oaks Race Snapshot

The $125,000 Tropical Park Oaks is Race 8 at Gulfstream Park: 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf, scheduled for 3:47 p.m. ET.

The $125,000 Tropical Park Derby is Race 11: 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the turf, scheduled for 5:17 p.m. ET. Jared frames this one as a Super High 5 kind of race.

Tropical Park Oaks (Race 8) – Field Overview

1 – Smart Union (12-1), 2 – Souper Williwaw (12-1), 3 – And One More Time (5-1), 4 – Destino d’Oro (3-1), 5 – Mischief in Motion (10-1), 6 – Ramsey Pond (12-1), 7 – Crafty Collector (10-1), 8 – Souper Zonda (12-1), 9 – It Ain’t Two (10-1), 10 – Supa Speed (7-2), 11 – Nosleeptilbrooklyn (30-1), 12 – Miss Mary Nell (30-1), 13 – Brown Sugar (20-1), 14 – Jalila (15-1).

Tropical Park Oaks (Race 8) – Horse-by-Horse Analysis

Smart Union (1)

Graham Motion trains, and she’s coming back off more than nine months away. Last seen sixth of 11 in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks. Layoff horses can win, but we’re betting readiness, not résumé. She needs a clean stalking trip and some rust-proof legs.

Souper Williwaw (2)

Michael Trombetta has her sharp with back-to-back turf wins, including an allowance score at Laurel on Oct. 24. Form is obvious, but the jump into this spot asks a real question: can she run the same race when the pace is faster and the finishers are stronger?

And One More Time (3)

Mark Casse brings a Grade 1 Natalma winner who returned off a layoff in September at Woodbine and handled business in an optional claiming turf route as the favorite. Today’s Racing Digest fractional charting has her right near the top on final-time expectation, and Jared calls her the best late kick in the field. We want pace and a lane. If she gets both, she’s live.

Destino d’Oro (4)

Brad Cox, 3-1 on the line, and she owns a Grade 3 Pucker Up win earlier this year. Jared still has her as his second choice even though she was unplaced in her last two turf route stakes. That’s the whole handicap here: class is there, but she needs to run back to the better version.

Mischief in Motion (5)

Trombetta again, and she was second in a Gulfstream stakes on Oct. 31 after tracking from third, taking over, then getting nailed late by a length. The Digest charting slots her among the top four on best-effort expectation. She’s the kind that can look home free turning in—until the closers show up.

Ramsey Pond (6)

Jared’s third choice and his underneath key. He points to the troubled trip last time when she was third in that Oct. 31 stake, and he leans on the consistency angle: she’s been a frequent board-hitter at Gulfstream and on turf overall. Tyler Gaffalione takes over, and Jared’s hunting value for exotics. That makes sense. She’s not a win machine, but she’s the type who saves a ticket.

Crafty Collector (7)

She won that Oct. 31 stakes race at a monster price (61-1), tracking from midpack and getting the right run. Jared’s point is trip-based: if she works out that same kind of stalking trip again, she’s in the hunt turning for home. We’re not expecting another 61-1 gift, but we don’t need it if she’s still double digits.

Souper Zonda (8)

Mark Casse again, coming off a well-beaten eighth in the Ontario Damsel at Woodbine (all-weather) on Oct. 11. Turf, trip, and class all get tougher here. She needs a big form reversal.

It Ain’t Two (9)

Unplaced last out in a Grade 3 six-furlong turf race at Aqueduct on Oct. 11. Now she stretches to 1 1/16. That’s a different test, and she’ll need to prove she can stay and finish, not just show speed.

Supa Speed (10)

Jared’s top choice, and the Today’s Racing Digest fractional charting expects the best final time. She’s off more than eight months, now with Brian Lynch (Jared notes the barn’s been sending out winners), and Junior Alvarado rides. Jared likes the Florida move and the turf work (including a turf drill on Nov. 30), plus prior turf form out west. The bet is simple: if she’s ready off the bench, her class and final-time ceiling can win this.

Nosleeptilbrooklyn (11)

Brian Lynch trains and she was sixth in the key Oct. 31 stakes race. At 30-1, she’s not a horse we force, but she’s the kind that can clunk up if the race gets heated and the obvious ones flatten late.

Miss Mary Nell (12)

She last “easily won” an all-weather route versus optional claiming company at Gulfstream back in July. That’s a long gap and a class hike. She can have talent, but we’re not guessing at a short price—she needs to show she belongs with these.

Brown Sugar (13)

Only matters if she draws in, and the video doesn’t break her down beyond the broader “big field with also-eligibles” context. If she lands in the gate, we’d treat her as unknown until we see the Digest lines and the intended trip.

Jalila (14)

Same deal: draw-in dependent, not discussed in the analysis. If she makes the field, we’d need the Today’s Racing Digest past performances in front of us to judge the fit.

Tropical Park Oaks (Race 8) – How Jared Bets It

Jared’s core is a win bet on Supa Speed (10). Then he builds exacta/trifecta structure around Supa Speed (10) and Destino d’Oro (4) on top, with Ramsey Pond (6) used as the key underneath piece. The idea is top-end final-time upside on top, with the steady closer type helping land the exotics.

Tropical Park Derby (Race 11) – Field Overview

1 – Thundering (20-1), 2 – Discreet Dancer (30-1), 3 – Tiz Dashing (7-2), 4 – Church and State (8-1), 5 – Day and Age (20-1), 6 – Layabout (10-1), 7 – Chapman’s Peak (5-2), 8 – Simulate (12-1), 9 – Roar of the Beast (20-1), 10 – Candytown (8-1), 11 – Tank (8-1), 12 – Souper Forces (8-1), 13 – McRavin (20-1).

Tropical Park Derby (Race 11) – Horse-by-Horse Analysis
Thundering (1)

Jared notes a ninth in the Hill Prince last time. That’s not a form line we bet aggressively in this kind of spot. Needs a rebound and a better trip.

Discreet Dancer (2)

Finished eighth in the Showing Up Stakes last time at a big number. He needs a serious forward move. Not impossible, but we’re not paying for hope.

Tiz Dashing (3)

Barkley Tag trainee coming off a Grade 3 Hill Prince win, and Jared liked the effort—wide, tough post, still got it done by a neck. Better draw here, Castellano stays. Jared uses him more underneath because he expects the price to get hammered this time.

Church and State (4)

Third at 28-1 in the Hill Prince, and Jared says if he repeats that kind of effort, he can hit the board again at a price. Today’s Racing Digest fast figs also put him near the top tier (one of the top three by that combined speed/class number). That’s the kind of profile we’ll use in deeper slots when we’re hunting value.

Day and Age (5)

Seventh in the Showing Up last out; before that, he won an allowance turf route at Churchill. Jared doesn’t sell him as a key, so we treat him as a fringe use—needs the right pace and a step forward.

Layabout (6)

Jared’s second choice. He liked the Showing Up effort from post 11 where Layabout tracked, took over, and held second. Jared leans on Gulfstream form (wins and a second from three starts), tactical speed, and second start off the layoff with Alvarado. He’s a trip horse with upside if he gets first run and doesn’t get outsprinted late.

Chapman’s Peak (7)

Jared’s top choice and the Today’s Racing Digest leader on projected final time. The fast figs back it too—best in the field (134). Jared’s angle is improvement and versatility: this gelding is simply better this year, can lead, press, or rally, and he’s coming off a head loss in the Commonwealth Turf behind a quality winner. Add the Florida work on Dec. 6 and the profile screams “in form, right trip, right race.”

Simulate (8)

Bill Mott trainee with an older Grade 2 Secretariat second that would fit, but Jared is blunt about the recent graded tries: he hasn’t been good enough lately. He needs to wake up.

Roar of the Beast (9)

Likely forward for Saffie Joseph Jr., but Jared flags the big question—can he handle turf after doing everything on dirt? Dirt form can carry, but we want a real price if we’re guessing.

Candytown (10)

Jared notes he’s been fourth in a couple stakes tries and still has to prove it at this level. Usable, but not a horse we center the bet around unless the price is right.

Tank (11)

Well-beaten in the Saranac at Saratoga back on Sept. 1. Jared doesn’t pitch a turnaround angle. Needs a major jump.

Souper Forces (12)

Undefeated (3-for-3) with improving numbers, and he won the Showing Up last time by a half-length over Layabout, rallying from off the pace. The Digest projections also rank him among the top final-time types. He’s legit; the question is how much we’re willing to pay in a deeper setup.

McRavin (13)

Listed as an also-eligible type in the video context, with Laurel turf form: won the debut, then ran second as the beaten favorite. If he draws in, the wide draw is the obvious tax. Talent might be there, but trips matter.

How to Use Today’s Racing Digest

Jarrod leans hard on Today’s Racing Digest past performances, then uses the Digest fractional charting to line up “best-effort” expectations—who projects to run the fastest final time if they fire their best shot, and who owns the late kick.

In the Derby, he also references Today’s Racing Digest fast figs, which blend speed and class into one read. That’s how he separates Chapman’s Peak at the top, keeps Tiz Dashing and Church and State in the mix, and respects Souper Forces as the undefeated threat. If we’re following along, we pull the same Gulfstream Park products and compare the projected final-time stack-up to the race shape we expect.

Call to Action

If you’re playing Gulfstream Park on Dec. 13, 2025, grab Today’s Racing Digest Complete Digest for the card and follow Jared’s Tropical Park Oaks and Tropical Park Derby breakdown with the same figures he’s using on video.

Want the full-card plan? Jared’s complete Dec. 13 analysis is available on Today’s Racing Digest’s handicappers page and at runawayhorse.com, with another full card noted for Dec. 20.