By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 3 Ohio Derby at Thistledown on June 20 has a purse of $500,000 and a field of ten sophomores are set to travel 1 1/8 miles on the main track.
Pace Scenario Favors the Favorites
One of the most important handicapping factors in this year’s Ohio Derby is the projected pace.
Unlike many graded stakes events, this race lacks a confirmed front-runner. Several horses possess tactical speed, but there does not appear to be a true pace burner signed on. That could allow horses with early positioning and proven class to control the race from the outset.
Both Chip Honcho and Desert Gate fit that profile perfectly.
Desert Gate has shown improved early speed since adding blinkers earlier this season, while Chip Honcho has consistently raced near the pace against stronger competition.
With neither horse likely to face significant early pressure, both should secure ideal trips.
Desert Gate: The Deserving Favorite
Desert Gate enters as the morning-line favorite and has done little wrong throughout his career.
The Bob Baffert trainee owns four victories from seven starts and has posted some of the strongest speed figures in the field. His recent wins in the Hot Springs Stakes and Texas Derby were visually impressive, and his ratings consistently rank at or near the top in every major category.
The son of Desert Gate projects to be prominently placed from the start under Flavien Prat, a combination that makes him dangerous throughout.
The primary concern is distance. While he dominated at a mile and a sixteenth in his most recent start, he has yet to race at the Ohio Derby’s mile-and-an-eighth distance. If he handles the extra real estate, he could certainly prove best.
Chip Honcho: A Well-Spotted Contender
Chip Honcho may offer slightly more value at the betting windows and appears to be entering this race at the right time.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has carefully managed his campaign throughout the spring. Rather than chasing Kentucky Derby ambitions, the connections have consistently placed the colt in races where he could be competitive.
Chip Honcho finished a strong second in the Grade 2 Risen Star at this distance and later delivered a respectable third-place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Those efforts demonstrate both his quality and his ability to handle nine furlongs.
Jose Ortiz should be able to secure a favorable early-pressing trip. Given the projected pace scenario and his proven ability at the distance, Chip Honcho appears poised to deliver another strong effort.
Albus Faces a Difficult Assignment
Albus deserves respect after his victory in the Wood Memorial, but several questions remain.
His Kentucky Derby effort can be forgiven, as many talented horses failed to fire in that demanding race. However, the outside draw presents a significant challenge.
Historical results at Thistledown show that horses breaking from outside posts have struggled in route races. Albus will need to overcome both the post position and uncertainty regarding his preferred running style.
His best efforts make him a contender, but the trip could prove difficult.
Ocelli Continues to Collect Checks
Ocelli remains one of the more unusual horses in the field.
Despite being a maiden, he has earned substantial purse money by consistently hitting the board in major races. He finished third in both the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby before finishing fourth in the Preakness.
His late-running style should once again allow him to pass tired horses in the stretch, but the projected moderate pace makes a winning rally difficult to envision.
Another minor award appears more likely than a breakthrough victory.