By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes headlines the undercard on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill Downs, offering a $500,000 purse for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. A compact field of five has assembled, but despite the small size, this race features plenty of quality and an intriguing pace scenario.
While the morning-line favorites have strong credentials, the race could set up perfectly for a stalking runner capable of capitalizing if the leaders soften each other up.
Pace Scenario
The early pace figures to be controlled by Splendora and Shred the Gnar.
Splendora breaks from the rail after an impressive victory in the Grade 2 Shawnee Stakes, where she stalked before taking command and defeating Immersive by more than two lengths. Drawing the inside post, Flavien Prat will likely have no choice but to send her early and establish position.
Shred the Gnar, unbeaten in three starts at Churchill Downs, exits a victory in the Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes. From the outside post, Luis Saez should be able to sit just outside Splendora and apply pressure throughout the opening stages.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
#1 Splendora (4-5)
Splendora deserves plenty of respect after posting a strong 149 final-time rating in the Shawnee Stakes. Bob Baffert’s mare has been extremely consistent in dirt routes, compiling three wins and two runner-up finishes from five starts.
The biggest question is the distance. She stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, and drawing the rail means she’ll likely have to work hard early to secure the lead.
#2 Regaled (10-1)
Regaled enters off a pair of disappointing Grade 1 efforts but shouldn’t be dismissed.
She owns a Grade 3 Delaware Handicap victory at today’s distance and has consistently performed well on wet tracks, winning twice while finishing second twice in four off-track starts. If rain arrives at Churchill Downs, her chances improve considerably.
She looks more appealing as an exotic play than a win candidate.
#3 Immersive (8-1)
Immersive may offer the best value in the field.
Her recent speed figures continue to trend upward, progressing from 132 to 134 to 140 in her last three starts. She has never finished worse than second in nine career starts, posting five victories and four runner-up finishes.
Most importantly, she projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip behind Splendora and Shred the Gnar. If those two engage in an honest early battle, Immersive could get first run turning for home and finish strongest in the stretch.
#4 In Just My Heels (20-1)
In Just My Heels exits a dominant front-running victory at Prairie Meadows but benefited from very comfortable early fractions.
She faces a significant class hike and is unlikely to secure an uncontested lead against this group. On paper, she appears to have the toughest assignment in the field.
#5 Shred the Gnar (6-5)
Shred the Gnar has been outstanding at Churchill Downs, winning all three local starts.
She enters in top form after capturing the Grade 1 La Troienne and owns speed figures that stack up favorably against anyone in this field. Her outside draw gives Luis Saez tactical flexibility, allowing him to either press Splendora or seize the initiative if the pace develops differently than expected.
She is a major win contender.