Full Analysis – Last to First

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Colt 47 (Post 6)

Colt 47 is two-for-eight and exits an optional claiming route at Fair Grounds where he finished second, beaten five lengths behind a Todd Pletcher runner.

He earned his career-best speed rating in that spot — but it’s still not fast enough.

Helpful Tip from the TRD Guide:

The Final Time Rating measures a horse’s final time against track par, adjusted for the daily variant. A 150 equals par; three points equal roughly one length.

Colt 47 will need a massive jump forward to compete with these.

My Betting Takeaway: Toss from the win slot.

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Quality Mischief (Post 8)

Quality Mischief is improving, but he’s still behind the top tier. He was fourth in the Gun Runner and fifth in the Lecomte.

His Final Time Ratings progressed nicely: 81 → 104 → 125 → 128.

Helpful Tip from the TRD Guide:

The Final Time Rating progression can highlight improving three-year-olds. Look for steady forward movement as distance increases.

The problem? He had the rail last time and still got beat three lengths. Now he’s drawn outside.

My Betting Takeaway: Improving, but needs another jump and a better trip.

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Carson Street (Post 3)

Carson Street was third, beaten a length, in the Lecomte while pressing the pace at 15-1. He earned a 134 Final Time Rating last out.

He’s improving — 129 in a maiden win, then 134 in stakes company.

The issue? He won’t be the only speed this time.

Helpful Tip from the TRD Guide:

PER (Performance Early in Race) identifies expected running styles — frontrunners (F), pressers (P), mid-pack (M), and closers (R). Compare that with the Track Profile before backing pace types.

Fair Grounds routes favor tactical runners, but speed battles can compromise multiple horses.

My Betting Takeaway: Honest horse. Tougher pace scenario.

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Chip Honcho (Post 5)

Chip Honcho won the Gun Runner but regressed slightly in the Lecomte, finishing fourth after racing wide from post 10.

They remove blinkers here and add Luis Saez.

He earned 128 and 131 Final Time Ratings in his last two Derby points races.

The Gun Runner did not come back particularly strong as a key race.

My Betting Takeaway: Respectable, but a cut below the top pair.

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Universe (Post 1)

Universe was the beaten favorite in the Smarty Jones after breaking last in a race with crawling fractions (24.2, 49.3, 1:14.4).

Race shape beat him that day.

Earlier in the fall, he earned back-to-back 131 Final Time Ratings in Derby points races and hit the board in the Champagne, Street Sense, and Kentucky Jockey Club.

Blinkers go back on — and he ran well in blinkers previously.

Helpful Tip from the TRD Guide:

The Fire Number projects sustained speed throughout the race — not just final time. Every two points equals roughly one length.

If Universe stays within range early, his Fire projection makes him competitive underneath.

My Betting Takeaway: Logical for minor awards if he breaks cleanly.

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Courting (Post 7)

The $5 million son of Curlin adds blinkers. He broke his maiden with a strong 137 Final Time Rating, then regressed to a 105 in the Remsen after getting bumped at the start.

That Remsen number may be misleading — the race has already flattered through Renegade’s next-out win in the Sam F. Davis.

Blinkers have sharpened his recent workouts.

He has legitimate upside.

My Betting Takeaway: Dangerous if he rebounds. Third-choice type with upside.

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Golden Tempo (Post 2)

Golden Tempo is currently fourth on my Derby list.

He broke his maiden going six furlongs, then rallied from ninth to win the Lecomte with a powerful stretch kick.

His Final Time Ratings jumped from 114 → 137.

That’s serious development.

Helpful Tip from the TRD Guide:

The CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) blends early pace and final time from the most comparable past race. Higher numbers indicate stronger projected performance.

Golden Tempo’s CPR profile fits a horse who can finish strongly at 1 1/8 miles.

If pace materializes, he’s flying late.

My Betting Takeaway: Strong contender. Major threat if pace holds.

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Paladin (Post 4) – Top Pick

Paladin has been my top-ranked Derby contender all winter.

He won both starts as a juvenile, including the Grade 2 Remsen. In his debut, he finished second but was placed first via disqualification after finishing more than five lengths clear of the rest with Renegade.

Then he defeated Renegade clearly in the Remsen.

Renegade returned to win the Sam F. Davis with a 92 Beyer.

Paladin has tactical speed — he can sit just off the pace and pounce.

Helpful Tip from the TRD Guide:

Compare Fire Number + Final Time Rating together. When both project near the top of the field, you likely have a horse capable of controlling both pace and finish.

Paladin’s combination of tactical positioning, pedigree (Gun Runner x Tapit mare), and proven Grade 2 form makes him extremely tough here.

My Betting Takeaway: He gets first run on Golden Tempo and holds him off.

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Pace & Setup

Fair Grounds routes typically favor tactical runners who sit within two to four lengths early. Paladin and Courting should be in ideal stalking positions.

Golden Tempo will be relying on pace pressure.

If the tempo is moderate, Paladin has a decisive advantage.

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My Betting Strategy

• Win Bet: Paladin (#4)
• Exacta Key: 4 over 2, 7, 1
• Saver Exacta: 2 over 4
• Trifecta Core: 4 / 2,7 / 1,2,7

My Betting Takeaway: Paladin controls the race shape and delivers a Grade 2 performance worthy of a serious Kentucky Derby contender.

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Background & Context

Quick History of the Risen Star Stakes

The Risen Star Stakes is one of Fair Grounds’ premier Kentucky Derby prep races and serves as the middle leg of the Louisiana Derby series. Contested at 1 1/8 miles for three-year-olds, it awards 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner — making it one of the most pivotal early-season preps.

Named after 1988 Kentucky Derby winner Risen Star, the race has produced numerous top-tier performers over the years. It typically rewards tactical speed and stamina, as the Fair Grounds stretch can be demanding for inexperienced sophomores stretching out in distance.

Because it falls in mid-February, the Risen Star often separates legitimate Derby contenders from developmental projects. Horses exiting this race frequently move on to the Louisiana Derby or other major final preps such as the Florida Derby or Arkansas Derby.

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Notable Past Winners

Year	Winner	Notes
2019	War of Will	Went on to win the Preakness Stakes
2020	Modernist	Later won the Louisiana Derby
2023	Angel of Empire	Arkansas Derby winner

 

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Get the Full Card

Get your Digest for Fair Grounds here:
Complete Digest

If you’re following the Derby trail closely, this is the race that clarifies the Louisiana division.

Good luck at the races.