By Jarrod Horak
My latest horse racing handicapping article and video features analysis of the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Dec. 20 using Today’s Racing Digest past performances. This is a Kentucky Derby 2026 points race.
Gun Runner field: 1 – Mesquite (9-2), 2 – Chip Honcho (9-2), 3 – Liberty National (7-2), 4 – Quality Mischief (10-1), 5 – Crown the Buckeye (5-1), 6 – Arabia Wild (8-1), 7 – Very Connected (9-2), 8 – Mister Punch (6-1).
The Gun Runner is for 2-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. It is the 11th race at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Dec. 20 with a scheduled post time of 6:45 PM ET.
Gun Runner Stakes Analysis
Mesquite was 8-1 in his sprint bow and he split a 12-horse field from the inside post. He was less than even money in a Churchill dirt route second time out and he rallied from last of 11 to graduate by 3/4ths of a length, and the show finisher was a next-out winner. He should save ground before launching his rally for the productive Jose Ortiz/Cherie DeVaux team.
Chip Honcho stalked the pace and landed the place in his extended sprint debut at Keeneland on Oct. 16 (8-1 odds), and he wired the field as the favorite in the mud at one mile (one turn) on Nov. 20. He adds blinkers and drilled a local bullet for this on Dec. 8, and he should be forwardly placed under his new rider Paco Lopez.
Liberty National was 6th of 8 at 12-1 odds in his seven panel bow (Chip Honcho 2nd), and he stretched out and cruised by 4+ lengths at 1 1/16 miles second time out. Brian Hernandez, Jr. got to know Ken McPeek’s $525k purchase last time and he should be within hailing distance of the early leaders.
Quality Mischief was 8th of 12 from the outside post in his flat mile turf bow at Horseshoe Indy in August, and he added blinkers, stalked the pace, and graduated in an off the turf route on Oct. 29. Brad Cox’s $300k Into Mischief colt needs to run faster to compete with this group.
Crown the Buckeye is a $250k Ohio-bred Yaupon colt trying open company for the first time. He was the favorite in his stakes sprint debut and he set the pace and was clearly second best in July. He made the running and romped by a dozen lengths in a dirt sprint stakes race in August, and he stretched out and rallied into below par splits to easily win another stakes race on Oct. 25. Jareth Loveberry got acquainted with Mike Maker’s versatile colt last time and he had a local workout for this on Dec. 9.
Arabia Wild added blinkers and lasix and earned his diploma as the favorite at this course/distance in his third lifetime start on Nov. 22. He is getting faster and a stalking trip is expected.
Very Connected rallied to break his maiden in the slop (off the turf) in September, and he was third in the Grade 3 Street Sense and fourth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club in his last pair. His stakes experience is a plus and he will try to get involved late.
Mister Punch was 8th of 11 in his turf sprint bow at Kentucky Downs. He moved to dirt second time out and stalked above par fractions and graduated by 4+ lengths in a Mcl-100k affair at a mile and a sixteenth on Nov. 5, and runner-up Alghero (Chad Brown) was 10 lengths clear of show finisher Reckless. He will probably stalk the pace from the outside post.
Gun Runner Stakes Video