By Jarrod Horak
The Curlin Stakes is the feature race at Saratoga on Wednesday, July 29, offering a $150,000 purse for 3-year-olds that have not won a graded stakes race. The field of six will travel 1 1/8 miles on the main track.
Race Overview
- Race: Curlin Stakes (Race 6)
- Track: Saratoga
- Distance: 1 1/8 miles
- Surface: Dirt
- Purse: $150,000
- Post Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Projected Pace
Gulfy appears to be the main speed horse.
Blackout Time and Zihnal should settle into stalking positions, while Chief Wallabee is expected to enjoy a tactical trip just outside the leaders. With only six horses entered, early position and trip could prove especially important.
The projected pace scenario seems to favor horses with early-pressing speed rather than deep closers.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
#1 Blackout Time (3-1)
Blackout Time enters off a dominant six-length victory in an allowance race at Churchill Downs. That performance represented a significant rebound after disappointing efforts earlier this season in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby.
The big question is whether that effort was aided by several favorable factors, including a wet track, the addition of Lasix, and class relief. Earlier in his career, he proved he belonged with quality company by finishing second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, so the talent is there. If he repeats his most recent speed figure, he’ll be a serious contender.
#2 Gulfy (12-1)
Gulfy projects as the likely pace setter. His forward running style might allow him to carve out the early fractions in a race that lacks abundant early speed.
The concern is whether he can finish strongly enough. While his pace figures are competitive, his recent final time ratings fall short of what will likely be required to defeat the top contenders. He could prove dangerous if left alone on the lead but appears more likely to be running for a minor award.
#3 Zihnal (9-2)
Zihnal continues to improve with experience. After breaking his maiden, he stepped into graded stakes company in the Indiana Derby and finished a respectable fourth despite less-than-ideal circumstances leaving the gate.
His speed figures have moved forward recently, suggesting additional upside remains. With Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the mount and a favorable tactical running style, Zenal looks well-positioned to work out a comfortable journey just behind the leaders.
#4 Chief Wallabee (4-5)
Chief Wallabee enters this race with the strongest credentials in the field.
His recent competition includes the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, the Grade 1 Florida Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Belmont Stakes. He was competitive in every one of those races, including a narrow second in the Fountain of Youth and a close third in the Florida Derby.
While he finished fourth in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, those races came at 1¼ miles against elite competition. Returning to 1⅛ miles while dropping into a restricted stakes represents significant class relief.
Adding confidence are two sharp bullet workouts leading into this race, suggesting he remains in excellent form.
#5 Tiernanogue (12-1)
Tiernanogue exits two turf starts after earning his maiden victory on dirt earlier this year.
Although his runner-up finish in the Audubon was respectable, his dirt speed figures remain below those of the leading contenders. Combined with his closing running style in a race that projects to feature modest early fractions, he’ll likely need substantial improvement to threaten for the victory.
#6 Sea Strike (6-1)
Sea Strike impressed in his debut, rallying from last to first to win as the favorite.
His second start was less encouraging, finishing fifth against older allowance company. Now he stretches out around two turns for the first time while making his stakes debut.
The pedigree suggests added distance may suit him, but he’ll need to show significant improvement against more accomplished rivals.
