By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes takes center stage on Saturday, November 15th at Churchill Downs with a scheduled post time of 1:58 PM ET. Jared Horack is back with a full look at the race using Today’s Racing Digest past performances. This one-turn mile for fillies and mares is always a pace-tactical chess match — and the 2025 edition brings a mix of proven winners, improving younger mares, and a couple of value surprises.
In this video and companion write-up, Jared breaks down:
The full field
What the Digest numbers reveal (Fire Numbers, CPR, Pace, Final Time Ratings)
Which runners fit the track profile
Who’s improving, who’s vulnerable, and who’s ready to win
Chilukki field: 1 – Impel (9-2), 2 – Shred the Gnar (5-2), 3 – Literate (10-1), 4 – Runaway Diva (20-1), 5 – Zadorsky (15-1), 6 – One Magic Philly (3-1), 7 – Ragtime (8-5).
Meet the Field & What the Digest Says
#1 Impel (9-2) — Logical Board Hitter
Impel is as reliable as they come, and her Today’s Racing Digest numbers back that up. She landed eight top-three finishes from eleven starts and is 2-for-2 at today’s one-mile distance.
Horse Comment:
Impel showed mild late interest Sept. 27 when splitting an eight-horse field, missing third by a head — and the horse who beat her for the show came right back to win. She already owns a local allowance win (OC-80k/2x) and a gritty victory in the Groupie Doll at Ellis. She reunites with Florent Geroux, saves ground from the rail, and always fires.
Digest Read:
She’s not flashy, but her CPR and Final Time trends make her a dependable underneath player. Perfect fit for trifectas and supers.
#2 Shred the Gnar (5-2) — Big Talent, Big Layoff (Jared’s 2nd Choice)
This filly’s Fast Figs and Fire Numbers jump off the page — she’s the fastest raw talent in the field outside the favorite.
Horse Comment:
Shred the Gnar comes into this off a layoff since May 2, but every start she’s made has been strong. She was the favorite in all three races, missing by a neck on debut, then romping by 6½ lengths at a mile, and destroying a local OC-125k by seven lengths. She’s a $610k Into Mischief filly, Luis Saez sticks, and she drilled a bullet work at Churchill on Oct. 26.
Digest Read:
Her Final Time Ratings (111 → 120 → 135) and Pace Ratings (132 → 138 → 153) are the classic “rocket ship” pattern.
The only question is: Is she ready off the bench?
#3 Literate (10-1) — Live Longshot for Exotics (Jared’s 5th Choice)
Literate makes a key barn switch to Brad Cox, whose numbers with new acquisitions are elite.
Horse Comment:
She returns to dirt, where she blew away a Gulfstream one-turn mile in March. Her Grade 3 Trillium Stakes win in July proved she fits at this level, though her last two synthetic routes weren’t her game. She reconnects with Irad Ortiz Jr., and this is absolutely the correct distance.
Digest Read:
Her Fire Numbers and CPR suggest she can grind into the bottom of the trifecta at double-digit odds.
#4 Runaway Diva (20-1) — Needs a Step Forward
Horse Comment:
Runaway Diva ships in for her first Churchill appearance, but she loves today’s mile distance (4: 2-1-1). She shortens back from a 1 1/8-mile Delaware Handicap (G3) where she ran a solid second behind a blowout winner. Jose Ortiz takes the mount.
Digest Read:
Her Pace Ratings put her in the mid-pack cluster, but she will need career-best Final Time Ratings to steal more than a minor share.
#5 Zadorsky (15-1) — Needs a Big Jump
Horse Comment:
Zadorsky was no match for One Magic Philly at Keeneland. She has won locally twice, but her figures simply aren’t in the same league as the top contenders.
Digest Read:
Her CPR and Fire Numbers lag too far behind to recommend winning chances — best used only in deep superfectas.
#6 One Magic Philly (3-1) — The Horse to Beat (Jared’s Top Choice)
One Magic Philly’s Digest numbers are elite — she owns the highest combination of Fire Numbers, Pace Ratings, and Final Time Ratings in the field.
Horse Comment:
She prepped well earlier this season, then ran into top mares like Sweet Azteca and Kopion, and later faced future BC champion Splendora. She moved to the Brendan Walsh barn, and immediately rewarded the move with an allowance win at Keeneland — where the runner-up came right back to win the Dream Supreme. She’s a Grade 3 winner already, has back-class from last year’s Filly & Mare Sprint, and picks up Tyler Gaffalione, who fits her perfectly.
Digest Read:
Her numbers are massive:
- Final Time Ratings: 140 • 137 • 147
- Pace Ratings: 158 • 146 • 150
- Fire Numbers: 97 • 94 • 99
She is a mile specialist, loves a fast pace, and has the finishing power to bury this group late.
#7 Ragtime (8-5) — Contender but Risky Favorite (Jared’s 3rd Choice)
The public will gravitate toward Ragtime, but Jared sees cracks in the armor.
Horse Comment:
Ragtime is 3-for-5 with only two narrow losses. She has legit sprint class — debuted with two Saratoga wins and then missed by a neck in the G1 Test. After removing blinkers, she won the Dogwood (G3), then had a rough start and rallied from last to finish third in the Raven Run (G2). She adds blinkers back on today for Mott and Alvarado.
Digest Read:
Her Final Time Ratings are steady (129–144 range), but this is her first start beyond 7 furlongs, and she’ll need pace to chase. Wide draw doesn’t help.
Jared’s Top 5 (Digest-Driven)
- One Magic Philly (#6)
- Shred the Gnar (#2)
- Ragtime (#7)
- Impel (#1)
- Literate (#3)
Wagering Blueprint (From the Video)
- Win Bet: 6 One Magic Philly
- Exacta Box: 2 Shred the Gnar – 6 One Magic Philly
- Trifecta Key: 6 over 2, 7
- Superfecta Key: 6 over 1, 2, 3, 7
Use Today’s Racing Digest to Handicap This Race
Everything in this analysis — from rising Fire Numbers, to pace shape, to CPR patterns — comes directly from Today’s Racing Digest, which offers:
- Fast Figs for quick class comparisons
- Full Pace & Final Time Rating grids
- Fire Numbers (speed throughout the race)
- CPR for complete performance analysis
- Track profile + pace forecast in the Race Header
- Expert commentary & projected pace maps