By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 2 Chicago Stakes headlines the Churchill Downs program on Saturday night, offering a $300,000 purse for fillies and mares going seven furlongs on the main track.
Race Overview
The seven-furlong distance often favors horses that possess both sprint speed and the stamina to finish strongly, and this year’s field includes multiple runners with established credentials at the course and distance.
Leading the way is morning-line favorite Eclatant, who enters the race in career-best form after capturing the Grade 1 Madison Stakes at Keeneland (161 FTR). However, she will face stiff competition from Grade 1 winner Usha and a handful of value plays capable of upsetting the favorite.
The Favorite: Eclatant
Eclatant has developed into one of the top female sprinters in training and appears to be improving with age. The Brad Cox trainee won the Grade 3 Forward Gal Stakes last season and made only three starts as a three-year-old. Since returning this year, she has been perfect in two starts, culminating in an impressive Grade 1 Madison victory at the same seven-furlong distance she will face in the Chicago Stakes.
What makes Eclatant particularly dangerous is her upward trajectory. Her speed figures have improved significantly this season, and she possesses the tactical speed necessary to secure a favorable trip from the start. If she reproduces either of her last two performances, she will be extremely difficult to deny.
Main Threat: Usha
Bob Baffert’s Usha deserves respect. The talented mare already owns a Grade 1 victory at seven furlongs and comes into the race off a victory in the Winning Colors Stakes at Churchill Downs.
After finishing third in the Derby City Distaff on Kentucky Derby weekend, Usha rebounded with a determined effort in the Winning Colors (138 FTR). The return to seven furlongs should suit her perfectly, and her new rider Flavien Prat should put her in the race from the outset.
With proven class and recent success over the Churchill surface, Usha is the most logical challenger to the favorite.
Value Plays to Consider
Beauty Reigns
Beauty Reigns may offer the best value in the field. The Bill Mott trainee is a perfect two-for-two at Churchill Downs and enters the race off an impressive optional claiming victory at seven furlongs (138 FTR).
While her recent speed figures fall slightly below those of the top contenders, her affinity for the Churchill surface and strong closing kick make her an attractive candidate for exactas and trifectas.
Evanescence
At 20-1 on the morning line, Evanescence is an intriguing longshot. Consistency has been her calling card throughout her career, finishing in the top three in all nine starts.
She has already demonstrated an ability to handle Churchill Downs and should enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail. While a win may be asking a lot, she looks capable of hitting the board at a generous price.
Other Entrants
Zeitlos enters with a strong local record but appears most effective at six furlongs rather than seven. She finished third in this race a year ago and could again pick up a minor award.
Lotsandlotsofcandy has shown quality sprint form but faces questions regarding the seven-furlong distance after doing her best work at shorter trips.
Queen’s Martini arrives off a stakes victory at Oaklawn Park but must prove she can duplicate that performance while cutting back from a mile to seven furlongs.
Foie Gras has competitive figures and a pair of Churchill wins but appears slightly outmatched against the top contenders.