By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 2 Caress Stakes will be run at Saratoga on Saturday, July 11. It goes as Race 5 and features a competitive field of six fillies and mares sprinting 5½ furlongs on the turf for a $250,000 purse.
Below is a horse-by-horse breakdown and a look at the projected pace scenario.
Pace Outlook
The pace scenario appears straightforward.
Sunna figures to establish the early lead, while In Our Time should sit just off her flank in an ideal pressing position. Italian Soiree and Movin’ On Up are expected to track behind the leaders, while Zeitlos and Obstreperous will likely rely on late rallies.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
#1 Zeitlos (4-1)
Zeitlos enters with solid Saratoga credentials, including a runner-up effort in last year’s Grade 3 Caress Stakes at this same distance.
Last time out, she finished sixth in the Grade 2 Chicago Stakes on dirt after rallying from off the pace. Returning to the turf might help, and from the rail she’ll likely save ground early and hope for a strong pace to set up her late kick.
#2 Movin’ On Up (9-2)
Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, Movin’ On Up shortens back to a turf sprint after finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile.
Her last sprint effort came in the Grade 2 Giant’s Causeway Stakes at Keeneland, where she rallied to finish third behind stablemate In Our Time. She is a contender if the pace develops.
#3 Italian Soiree (7-2)
Italian Soiree clearly enjoys Saratoga. She owns two wins and a runner-up finish in three starts at this distance and finished second in the Grade 2 Intercontinental over this course and distance in her most recent start.
The concern is consistency. Throughout her career she has alternated strong efforts with disappointing performances. If she repeats her latest race, she’s capable of winning, but history suggests she doesn’t always string together back-to-back top performances.
#4 Sunna (2-1)
Sunna has done nothing but win since moving to turf sprints.
She’s unbeaten in four starts on the grass, all at sprint distances, including victories in stakes company and an impressive allowance win at Churchill Downs. Her early speed makes her the most likely pacesetter, and if she’s allowed to dictate terms, she’ll be very difficult to reel in.
#5 Obstreperous (15-1)
Obstreperous returns off a victory in an optional claiming event at Monmouth Park after rallying from off the pace.
While she’s in good form, this represents a significant class hike against proven graded stakes competition, making her more of an outsider in this field.
#6 In Our Time (5-2)
In Our Time may offer the best combination of class, speed, and race setup.
She captured the Grade 2 Giant’s Causeway Stakes at Keeneland with Flavien Prat aboard before finishing an even fifth in the Grade 2 Intercontinental. That latest effort was better than it appears on paper after encountering a less-than-ideal start and chasing sharp wire-to-wire winner Roja.
From the outside post in a race lacking abundant speed, she projects to secure a comfortable early-pressing trip.
