By Jarrod Horak
The Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes goes as Race 13 at Laurel Park on Friday, May 15, and this year’s renewal drew an interesting field of developing three-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. With a $300,000 purse on the line, this race gives several improving runners a chance to take a major step forward in the division.
The scheduled post time is 6:14 p.m. Eastern, and the past performance data referenced throughout this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest.
Meet the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Field
#1 Miss Fulton Gal (30-1)
Miss Fulton Gal enters at 30-1 on the morning line after finishing fourth in the Weber City Miss Stakes, missing third by only a head. She should save ground from the rail and work out a stalking trip behind the speed, but she will need a significant jump forward in her speed figures to threaten this group late.
#2 Ivy Girl (15-1)
Ivy Girl rallied from last to first in the Weber City Miss after employing the same successful closing style in a prior stakes victory at Parx. She clearly benefits from fast pace scenarios and a fair racing surface that rewards late runners. The key question is whether this race shape sets up favorably for another deep-closing effort.
#3 Holly’s Holiday (6-1)
Holly’s Holiday has improved dramatically from two poor starts last season to a perfect two-for-two campaign this year. She dead-heated in a maiden special weight at Oaklawn before winning a non-graded stakes event at one mile at attractive odds. She owns tactical speed, draws well in post three, and picks up Flavien Prat.
#4 Savor It (30-1)
Savor It exits a solid win at Parx going one mile, but this represents a major class hike. She has enough early speed to be involved early, although she looks up against it against this deeper field.
#5 Braken Poppa (7-2)
Braken Poppa is an intriguing Louisiana-bred making her first start against open company. She is four-for-five overall and undefeated this year after dominating back-to-back Louisiana-bred stakes races. Jose Ortiz retains the mount, and her positional speed should allow her to secure a favorable trip near the front.
#6 Haute Diva (15-1)
Haute Diva won the Cash Run Stakes at Gulfstream earlier this year but failed to fire in her last two graded stakes attempts. She will need a major rebound performance after disappointing efforts in both the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Park Oaks.
#7 Jumping the Gun (3-1)
Jumping the Gun has hit the board in all six career starts, but her strongest races came sprinting. She finished third in the Weber City Miss in her return from a layoff and may eventually prove more effective cutting back in distance.
#8 Majestic Lucia (12-1)
Majestic Lucia enters off consecutive victories at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs. She has tactical speed and appears to be improving, although she still needs another step forward from a figure standpoint to compete with the top contenders.
#9 A. P.’s Girl (5-1)
A. P.’s Girl ran a strong race in the Weber City Miss after tracking a fast pace and finishing second. She has shown versatility throughout her recent form cycle and now makes her third start off the layoff for Peter Eurton with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.
#10 My Miss Mo (7-2)
My Miss Mo exits runner-up finishes in both the Grade 2 Davona Dale and Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She has enough tactical speed to secure forward position from the outside draw, although Tyler Gaffalione may need to be aggressive early to avoid losing ground.
Digest Past Performances & Figure Analysis
Several runners will need substantial improvement from a figure standpoint, while a handful already fit well against this field based on their recent numbers from the Digest.
Miss Fulton Gal
Her 110 Final Time Rating in the Weber City Miss leaves her a bit light versus the top contenders. She should enjoy a ground-saving trip, but the numbers suggest she still needs a breakthrough effort.
Ivy Girl
Ivy Girl earned a 125 Final Time Rating in her upset victory last time, but that effort came with an ideal pace collapse. Repeating that setup is far from guaranteed in this spot.
Holly’s Holiday
This filly’s progression stands out immediately. After weak numbers last year, she returned with a 131 Final Time Rating in her maiden score before earning a 125 while winning a stakes race at Oaklawn.
What really catches my attention is the improved pace profile. Her Pace Rating jumped to a 137 last time, suggesting she is developing into a more complete racehorse capable of sustaining speed throughout the route distance.
Pro Insight
Holly’s Holiday combines tactical speed with an ideal inside draw, which is often a major advantage in large-route stakes fields where trip dynamics become critical.
Braken Poppa
Braken Poppa has dominated Louisiana-bred competition, but her Final Time Ratings of 108, 110, 120, and 107 indicate she still needs another move forward against open company.
Jumping the Gun
Her best races came sprinting, where she posted back-to-back 129 Final Time Ratings. Her recent route figures of 114, 107, and 110 suggest the added distance may not be helping her overall performance.
Majestic Lucia
Majestic Lucia improved nicely in her first two victories, earning a 126 and 119 Final Time Rating, but this remains a tougher assignment against graded stakes company.
A. P.’s Girl
A. P.’s Girl continues to trend the right direction. After earning a 110 in January, she improved to a 129 before posting a strong 123 in the Weber City Miss despite pressing a fast pace.
Her 141 Pace Rating from that race is especially notable because she sat close to demanding fractions while still finishing clearly best among the forward runners. She gets another favorable setup here with Irad Ortiz Jr. likely to secure ideal stalking position.
My Miss Mo
My Miss Mo owns some of the strongest recent figures in the field, including a 143 Final Time Rating in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She also posted Pace Ratings of 153 and 144 in her last two starts.
Another encouraging metric is her 100 Fire Number, which measures speed sustainability throughout the race. That suggests she can carry her speed effectively over longer distances.
Pace & Race Shape Breakdown
The pace scenario appears honest rather than chaotic. Horses like Braken Poppa, My Miss Mo, and possibly A. P.’s Girl should keep the tempo legitimate without necessarily creating a complete collapse.
That race shape may favor tactical runners more than deep closers, which is one reason I slightly prefer horses capable of sitting within striking range rather than coming from far back.
Bettor’s Edge
When evaluating route races at Laurel, I pay close attention to runners capable of securing position without using excessive energy early. Tactical speed and trip efficiency can be decisive over this distance.