By Jarrod Horak
The $100,000 Bertrando Stakes headlines Saturday card at Los Alamitos Race Course, going as Race 9 for California-bred horses aged three and up. The one-mile dirt contest has attracted a compact field of six.
After reviewing the pace scenario, speed figures, and track profile, Coach Cronin emerges as the horse to beat.
Pace Scenario Favors Speed
One of the most important handicapping angles in this race is the projected pace setup.
Coach Cronin appears to be the lone true front-runner in the field, a significant advantage considering one mile races at Los Alamitos have historically favored horses racing on or near the lead. Front-runners and pressers account for the vast majority of winners at this distance, making early position especially valuable.
With little apparent pressure up front, Coach Cronin could find himself controlling the tempo from the start.
Favorite: Coach Cronin
Coach Cronin enters the Bertrando Stakes in outstanding form for trainer Bob Hess Jr. The six-year-old gelding has won five of his last seven starts and arrives off back-to-back victories at the one-mile distance.
His most recent performance was particularly impressive, as he wired the field while earning one of the strongest speed figures in the race (144 FTR). Prior to that, he scored another front-running victory at Santa Anita, confirming that his current form is no fluke.
The numbers support his chances as well. Coach Cronin owns the top projected Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR) and Final Time Rating in the field. Combined with his expected pace advantage, those figures make him a deserving favorite.
If jockey Mike Smith is able to secure an uncontested lead, Coach Cronin could prove difficult to catch.
Wily Veteran: None Above the Law
Veteran gelding None Above the Law brings considerable class to the field and may be the most dangerous late-running threat.
The eight-year-old recently snapped a lengthy losing streak with a hard-fought victory in a turf route (135 FTR), showing signs that he may be returning to top form. He also owns a previous victory in the Bertrando Stakes and has multiple wins at the mile distance.
While the pace setup may not be ideal for a closer, his experience and proven stakes credentials make him a serious contender if the leaders weaken late.
Shea Brennan Returns From Layoff
Shea Brennan has not raced since November but possesses enough talent to make his presence felt if ready off the bench.
The gelding owns a stakes victory at Los Alamitos and has posted speed figures that compare favorably with the top contenders in this field.
The biggest question is fitness. If he returns in peak condition, he has every right to compete for a top-three finish.
Speedy Wilson Draws the Rail
Speedy Wilson enters off a strong runner-up effort behind Big City Lights, who subsequently returned to win again in the Thor’s Echo Stakes. That last performance at seven panels produced one of the better recent speed figures in the field (150 FTR) and demonstrated that Speedy Wilson is currently in good form.
The rail draw should allow him to save ground throughout the race, but stretching his speed around two turns remains a question mark. If he handles the distance, he has enough ability to challenge for at least a share.