By Jarrod Horak
The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival continues at Saratoga on Friday with a pair of graded stakes races that feature talented fillies and mares on both turf and dirt. After reviewing the Complete Digest speed figures, pace projections, and recent form, here are my thoughts on the Grade 2 Wonder Again Stakes and the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes.
Race 9: Grade 2 Wonder Again Stakes
Purse: $300,000
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf)
Field: Three-Year-Old Fillies
The Wonder Again Stakes drew a competitive field of nine, although main-track-only entrant Pashmina is unlikely to run since this race is expected to remain on the turf.
Main Contenders
The Digest numbers point clearly toward Fitz Right as the horse to beat. She owns the top projected Fire Number (101), the highest Comprehensive Performance Rating (153), and shares the best Fast Fig and final-time ratings among the turf runners.
More importantly, her form pattern is exactly what handicappers like to see. Her final-time ratings have improved in every career start, progressing from 93 to 95, then 104, 110, and finally a career-best 132 in her most recent stakes victory at Aqueduct.
Fitz Right enters this race undefeated in two starts this season, winning those races by a combined margin of more than eight lengths. The daughter of Charlatan appears to be developing at the right time, and Flavien Prat returns to ride for trainer Chad Brown.
Coach Missoula could be dangerous if she secures an uncontested lead. She enters off back-to-back victories, including a stakes win at Laurel Park, and has never finished worse than third in a turf route.
Time to Dream brings a strong late kick and should be closing in the stretch. The concern is whether she will have too much to do turning for home.
Lion Lake is another logical contender. She has been remarkably consistent and exits a solid third-place finish in a Churchill Downs stakes race at this same distance.
Race 12: Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes
Purse: $500,000
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles
Field: Fillies and Mares
The Ogden Phipps may have attracted only six runners, but the quality of the field is outstanding. Several accomplished graded stakes performers square off in what should be one of Friday’s highlights.
Top Contenders
Fully Subscribed might have the most upside in this year’s Ogden Phipps.
The key angle is distance. In her seasonal debut in the La Troienne Stakes, she returned from a lengthy layoff and finished a respectable second at 1 1/16 miles. That race appeared to be a prep, and the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles looks ideal.
Last year, she captured two graded stakes races at this distance and consistently demonstrated the tactical speed needed to secure favorable positioning. Drawing the rail should allow Flavien Prat to save ground throughout the race before making his move in the stretch.
As a four-year-old, Fully Subscribed may still have room for improvement, and a step forward off her comeback effort would make her very dangerous.
Alpine Princess is impossible to ignore. She owns the highest projected CPR (152), Fast Fig (135), and Final Time Rating (153). The Brad Cox trainee exits a Grade 2 victory at Keeneland and has proven she can handle the 1 1/8-mile distance.
Nitrogen remains one of the most reliable fillies in training. She has consistently competed at the highest level and was a Grade 1 winner at Saratoga last season. Expect her to be involved from start to finish.
Bless the Broken has improved significantly since joining the Brad Cox stable. She has performed well in Grade 1 company this season and should once again be competitive.