By Jarrod Horak
The final jewel of the Triple Crown arrives at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, as a talented field of nine three-year-olds competes in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. With a $2 million purse on the line and a distance of 1¼ miles to conquer, this year’s Belmont shapes up as a fascinating tactical battle where pace and trip could determine the winner.
A Different Race Than the Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby featured a fast pace that completely collapsed, setting the stage for deep closers. That scenario allowed Golden Tempo to rally from last place and score a upset at 23-1 odds.
The Belmont Stakes appears much different.
There is no clear speed demon in this field, and the pace is expected to be moderate. Horses with tactical speed—those capable of sitting just behind the leaders—could have a significant advantage. Deep closers may find themselves with too much ground to make up in the stretch.
Main Contenders
Chief Wallabee enters the Belmont after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby, a performance that may have been better than it appears on paper.
The Bill Mott trainee encountered some traffic issues and never enjoyed a completely clean trip at Churchill Downs. Despite those challenges, he remained competitive throughout and finished respectably against the best three-year-olds in the country.
Several factors make him particularly appealing in the Belmont:
- Tactical speed that should allow him to secure ideal positioning early.
- A favorable inside draw in post three.
- Continued improvement since adding blinkers.
- Strong connections with trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado.
- A focused training schedule at Saratoga specifically targeting this race.
Mott and Alvarado successfully executed a similar Belmont campaign last year, and the team appears to have followed a proven blueprint once again.
If there is a horse capable of taking a major step forward, it may be Emerging Market.
The Chad Brown trainee has raced only three times and already owns a stakes victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. His Kentucky Derby effort can be forgiven to some extent, as he raced closer to a hot pace than ideal and reportedly lost a shoe during the race.
With additional experience and a more favorable pace setup, Emerging Market has every reason to improve in his fourth career start.
His tactical speed should allow him to secure a comfortable trip while staying within striking range of the leaders.
While Chief Wallabee and Emerging Market offer upside, the established stars cannot be ignored.
Renegade
The Kentucky Derby runner-up is a deserving favorite. He overcame early trouble before finishing strongly and losing by only a neck. Unlike some closers, Renegade can stay relatively close to the pace before unleashing his late kick.
If he enjoys a clean trip, he is a major threat.
Commandment
A multiple graded-stakes winner, Commandment owns some of the strongest speed figures in the field. His Kentucky Derby performance was compromised by a slow start and a premature mid-race move.
With a smoother trip, he has every right to contend for the victory.
Why Golden Tempo Faces a Tougher Challenge
Golden Tempo deserves respect after winning the Kentucky Derby, but the Belmont presents a much different challenge.
His Derby victory was aided by an exceptionally fast pace that favored closers. In the Belmont, the pace projects to be considerably slower, meaning he may not receive the same setup.
Additionally, he must overcome an outside post position and will likely attract significantly more betting support than he did in Louisville.
While he could certainly hit the board, repeating his Derby heroics will be difficult.