By Jarrod Horak
The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival continues at Saratoga on Thursday with a pair of graded turf stakes drawing competitive fields. Using the past performances and numbers from Today’s Racing Digest, I’ve analyzed each event and identified top contenders and live longshots.
Race 8: Grade 2 Intercontinental Stakes
$250,000 | Fillies & Mares, 4YO & Up | 5½ Furlongs (Turf)
The Grade 2 Intercontinental Stakes features a deep field of turf sprinters, with several runners possessing early speed. Horses such as Twirling Queen, Gratefully, Roja, and In Our Time are all expected to be involved in the pace, setting up what could be a contested early tempo.
Top Contenders: Shoot It True & In Our Time
Shoot It True enters the race in excellent form after finishing second in both of her starts this season. Despite receiving limited pace assistance in those races, she closed well and earned competitive speed figures.
One of the strongest angles in her favor is her affinity for Saratoga. She is undefeated in two starts over the course, winning both races impressively last summer by more than three lengths each. Her recent final time ratings of 141 and 143, combined with Fire numbers of 94 and 96, indicate she remains capable of another strong performance.
With multiple speed horses entered, the race shape could favor her late-running style. The addition of jockey Juan Hernandez is an interesting development. He is 2-for-2 with Wesley Ward recently.
In Our Time exits a Grade 2 victory in the Giant’s Causeway and owns the strongest recent speed figures in the field. Her 149 final-time rating last out is the highest among the major contenders, and her tactical speed should allow her to secure an ideal stalking trip behind the leaders.
Live Longshot: Italian Soiree
Italian Soiree offers value at a projected double-digit price. She is undefeated in two starts at the 5½-furlong distance and won the Grade 3 Coronation Cup at Saratoga last summer. After stretching out unsuccessfully in her most recent start, the cutback in distance and a third start off the layoff could lead to improvement.
Other Contenders
- Gratefully remains unbeaten in five career starts but faces a tougher class test.
- Roja has strong turf sprint credentials and should be part of the early pace from her outside draw.
Race 10: Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup
$250,000 | 4YO & Up | 2 Miles (Inner Turf)
The Belmont Gold Cup presents a unique challenge as runners tackle a demanding two-mile distance. Several entrants bring solid graded stakes credentials, but questions surrounding stamina and current form make the race particularly intriguing.
Top Contenders: Navy Seal & Corruption
Navy Seal might offer attractive value in the wagering.
The Wesley Ward trainee was making his first start off a layoff when finishing third in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland. While beaten decisively by standout turf runner Burnham Square, the effort was better than it appears on paper given the quality of the competition.
Navy Seal previously performed well at Saratoga and owns a victory at 1½ miles at Kentucky Downs. His pedigree suggests the added distance should be within reach, and improvement is expected in his second start of the season.
With Jose Ortiz aboard and Ward enjoying success recently, Navy Seal appears poised for a forward move.
Morning line favorite Corruption brings the strongest recent figures into the race. He finished third in the Grade 1 Turf Classic and narrowly missed in the Grade 3 Pan American at 1½ miles earlier this year.
If he successfully handles the additional half-mile, he is clearly one of the horses to beat.
Longshot Consideration: Concord Green & Fleetfoot
Concord Green has shown improvement since adding blinkers, posting strong efforts at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland. His tactical versatility and positive recent form make him an interesting upset candidate.
Fleetfoot is proven at the two-mile distance, having won twice at the trip. Although his graded stakes resume is lighter than some of his rivals, his stamina could prove valuable if others struggle to see out the distance.
Horses to Use Underneath
Flashiest and Tawny Port have been consistent enough to earn minor awards, but both enter the race with lengthy losing streaks. They appear more attractive for trifecta and superfecta tickets than as win candidates.
