By Jarrod Horak
I’m taking a look at the four stakes races on Peter Pan Stakes Day at Aqueduct, including the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes, which serves as a key prep race for the Belmont Stakes. The past performance data referenced throughout this analysis is provided by Complete Digest from Today’s Racing Digest.
Grade 3 John A. Nerud Stakes Analysis
The sixth race is the Grade 3 John A. Nerud Stakes at six furlongs on the main track. The favorite appears to be One Nine Hundred, and that runner could absolutely prove difficult to catch if left alone on the front end. He likes Aqueduct, prefers this six-furlong trip, and projects as the controlling speed.
Still, I’m siding with Full Moon Madness as my top choice. This runner has already proven effective at Aqueduct and at this exact distance. Last time out in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct on February 28, he narrowly missed by a nose while earning a strong 138 Final Time Rating and a 140 Pace Rating.
What I like most is the projected trip. Full Moon Madness does not need the lead. He can sit just off the pace, track comfortably, and make his move turning for home. Reylu Gutierrez gave him a smart tactical ride last time, and if the pace gets even mildly contested, this horse could wear down the favorite late.
My Betting Takeaway
Full Moon Madness offers the right combination of tactical speed, local form, and pace setup to upset the likely favorite.
Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes Analysis
The seventh race is the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes for fillies and mares going one mile around one turn on the main track.
Eunomia enters as a major contender after finishing second in a Grade 2 at Keeneland on April 17 while earning a 152 Final Time Rating. However, she returns on relatively short rest, and notably, Flavien Prat chooses not to ride her back.
Instead, Prat lands aboard Inefficiency for Chad Brown, and that’s the horse I want in this spot.
Inefficiency is undefeated in two starts at Aqueduct, both at one mile around one turn. She won her debut by six lengths and followed that up with another dominant victory by more than six lengths. More importantly, the speed figures improved dramatically from race one to race two.
| Race | Final Time Rating | Pace Rating | Fire Number | CPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debut | 119 | 104 | 73 | 116 |
| Second Start | 134 | 155 | 92 | 119 |
She’s a daughter of Constitution out of an Uncle Mo mare, and the pedigree supports continued improvement. I also like the timing of this race for her compared to some of her rivals. Eunomia and Dry Powder both come back relatively quickly, while Dazzling Move appears off form.
Irish Maxima should ensure an honest pace, and that setup could allow Inefficiency to secure another ideal stalking trip.
Pro Insight
Prat sticking with Inefficiency instead of Eunomia is notable in a race where tactical positioning could determine the outcome.
My Betting Takeaway
Inefficiency looks like a developing filly meeting this field at the right time while holding both tactical and figure advantages.
Take the A Train Stakes Analysis
The eighth race is the Take the A Train Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on the turf course.
If weather impacts the card and this race comes off the turf, Kingsolver becomes much more interesting because all prior races have come on dirt. However, assuming this event stays on grass, I’m going with Cadenza for Brad Cox and Manny Franco.
Cadenza has shown valuable versatility throughout her career. After weakening in her dirt debut at Saratoga, she switched to turf and immediately improved, winning at five and a half furlongs while posting a 113 Final Time Rating.
She later ran well over the Turfway synthetic surface, including a productive allowance win on February 21 that produced four next-out winners.
What stands out most is her adaptable running style. She can press the pace, stalk just behind it, or sit slightly farther back if necessary. That flexibility becomes especially important in turf sprints where pace dynamics can change quickly.
Brad Cox wins at a strong percentage with horses moving up in class, and this doesn’t feel like a dramatic jump after her recent synthetic stakes effort.
Bettor’s Edge
Versatility is often underrated in turf sprints, and Cadenza’s ability to adapt tactically gives her a major advantage.
My Betting Takeaway
Cadenza’s improving form cycle, proven turf ability, and tactical versatility make her the horse to beat.
Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes Analysis
The featured Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes is a mile and an eighth prep race for the Belmont Stakes with a $200,000 purse for three-year-olds.
With Bull by the Horns expected to scratch and target the Preakness Stakes instead, the field projects to shrink to five runners. That creates a race where pace and positioning become even more important.
5th Choice – Azam
Azam continues to improve with each start, and I do like the distance progression from five furlongs to six furlongs to a one-turn mile and now stretching out to a mile and an eighth.
His Final Time Ratings have steadily improved:
| Start | Distance | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Debut | 5 furlongs | 110 |
| Second Start | 6 furlongs | 114 |
| Last Start Win | 1 mile | 120 |
He’s moving in the right direction, but he’ll need another significant jump forward to compete with the top contenders.
4th Choice – Trendsetter
Trendsetter won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland last time while earning a 129 Final Time Rating. He tracked the pace nicely and finished strongly.
Still, I do wonder whether the Keeneland surface played a role in that improved performance. He had been training there consistently and looked especially comfortable over that track.
Now he leaves Keeneland and ships to Aqueduct, so the question becomes whether he can reproduce that same effort away from his preferred surroundings.
3rd Choice – Gulfy
Gulfy enters off back-to-back wins at Aqueduct, including a starter optional claiming victory last time out.
The figures are respectable, including a 137 Final Time Rating two starts back, but this represents a substantial class jump. Facing allowance and claiming company is very different from taking on graded stakes rivals.
He does have a solid pedigree by Constitution out of a Union Rags mare, but he must prove he belongs at this level.
2nd Choice – Talk to Me Jimmy
Talk to Me Jimmy should be involved from the opening bell. Rudy Rodriguez considered the Preakness Stakes but ultimately opted for this softer spot at Aqueduct.
His breakout performance came in the Withers Stakes when he wired the field by 11 lengths while earning a 140 Final Time Rating and a massive 159 Pace Rating.
Last time in the Wood Memorial, the pace became much more demanding. He posted a 179 Pace Rating before tiring late.
Back against a smaller field and likely facing less pressure early, he could become very dangerous if allowed to control the tempo.
Top Choice – Growth Equity
My top selection is Growth Equity for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat.
I love the progression this colt has shown as distances increase. By Nyquist out of a Wildcat Heir mare, he debuted at Saratoga last summer sprinting six furlongs and ran well immediately with a 116 Final Time Rating.
After a lengthy layoff, he returned at seven furlongs and improved again, earning a 120 Final Time Rating despite the difficult assignment of winning off the bench in an extended sprint.
Then came the breakout performance at Aqueduct on March 20. Stretching to a one-turn mile, he dominated a maiden special weight field by four lengths while earning a 138 Final Time Rating and a 140 Pace Rating.
| Start | Final Time Rating | Fire Number | CPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debut | 116 | 77 | 105 |
| Second Start | 120 | 78 | 108 |
| Last Start | 138 | 92 | 130 |
The numbers indicate a colt improving rapidly, and this does not look like an especially deep Grade 3 field. If he reproduces his last effort or moves forward slightly in his third start off the layoff, I believe he’s the most likely winner.
Digest Pro Tip
In shorter graded stakes fields, tactical positioning becomes critical. Growth Equity has enough speed to stay involved early without needing the lead.
My Betting Takeaway
Growth Equity appears to be a developing colt with upside, improving speed figures, and the ideal running style for this compact Peter Pan field.