Horse-by-Horse Analysis

The Wine Steward (1)

Jarrod ranks him third and we get why: he’s fast enough to win this on his best day, especially when he’s allowed to use speed from the rail. He’s back in New York after finishing up the track in a stakes race at Fair Grounds on November 27, which doesn’t help his optics, but it also isn’t a deal-breaker if you’re willing to forgive a bad trip or an off day.

The local signal is stronger. He won a local $200k stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs in October and earned a 140 Final Time Rating doing it. Jarrod also points out he can flash pace—he’s the kind that can be forward from the inside and make the race shape work for him.

For us, he’s a serious player if he breaks clean, holds position, and doesn’t get pinned on the fence. If he’s chasing too hard early or gets stuck behind horses, he can flatten late and settle for a minor award.

Bank Frenzy (2)

Jarrod has him second and the angle is distance and rebound. He’s captured half of his last six starts, so the barn isn’t guessing, but his weaker races have shown up at seven furlongs—he was flat at seven panels on July 31 and again on November 22.

The longer trip helps, and Jarrod is clear he likes this one-mile distance a lot more than seven furlongs. He likes this oval, and he’s run fast enough to win this type multiple times. The figure line supports it: he’s produced stronger Final Time Ratings at a mile, including big efforts at Aqueduct.

Trip-wise, we want him in the clear and in rhythm turning for home. If the mile wakes him up the way it has before, he’s the most likely winner if Doc Sullivan regresses or gets the wrong trip.

General Banker (3)

Jarrod puts him seventh and the recent form is a hard “no” without a massive turnaround. He did run well in back-to-back flat mile races at Aqueduct in March and April, and earlier in the year he even flashed real numbers—second in the mud with a 138 Final Time Rating and a prior win with a 141.

But that form feels like a different lifetime right now. His last three starts were blowouts (beaten 21+, 34, and 26 lengths), and the recent Final Time Ratings (72, 41, 78) aren’t competitive for this level.

He needs a form reversal to even make noise, and that’s not the kind of gamble we want in a short field with two obvious standouts.

Doc Sullivan (4)

Top choice for Jarrod and the “now” horse coming in sharp. He was a close second to Bank Frenzy at a mile and an eighth on October 25, then turned the tables in a decisive win at seven furlongs on November 22, scoring in the slop with a 150 Final Time Rating. Jarrod also notes his improved pace punch in that race, which matters when you’re trying to control position in a one-turn mile.

He’s proven at Aqueduct, he’s versatile, and he doesn’t need a perfect setup. We’re not guessing on distance—Jarrod says he handles the mile fine, and his positional speed makes him less trip-dependent than some of the others.

The main story is the matchup: these two have traded decisions, and the outside draw gives Doc Sullivan first run and tactical options. If he runs back to that last effort, he’s the one we key.

Quick to Accuse (5)

Jarrod ranks him fourth and he’s the type we view as a fringe board candidate more than a win threat. He landed the place going one mile at Laurel Park on November 14, so he’s at least in the right distance neighborhood.

The issue is what he does at Aqueduct against stakes horses. The last time he competed at Aqueduct he was an even fourth at a mile and an eighth on October 25, and Jarrod expects him to run closer to that kind of output here.

If he runs a step forward from the Aqueduct stakes try, he can clunk up for third. If he runs the same, he’s outside the top three.

Share the Loot (6)

Jarrod has him sixth and the message is simple: he needs more speed for this class. He exits a local allowance win at 6 1/2 furlongs and the added note here is he earned a 131 Final Time Rating in that victory.

Even with that, this is still a tougher ask because he’s stretching out to a mile and facing a field with proven stakes-level numbers at or near this trip. Jarrod’s view is he needs to run faster to compete with these, and we agree—this isn’t just about distance, it’s about ceiling.

He needs the right trip and a real forward move to threaten the top three.

Lock and Key (7)

Jarrod ranks him fifth and the outside post doesn’t help. He’s hit the board in two of his last three local dirt sprints, so the horse is at least showing up and competing, but the figures are light for a race where the top pair can run.

Jarrod’s figure references are consistent with that: he’s been living in the mid-to-high 120s on Final Time Ratings in recent races, and that’s not where you want to be if you’re trying to beat Doc Sullivan and Bank Frenzy.

He also can’t afford a wide trip. If he loses ground into the turn, he’s basically running for a minor slice at best.

If you’re betting Aqueduct on Friday, December 26, download the Today’s Racing Digest Complete Digest.

Jarrod also notes he’ll be posting full-card analysis for Santa Anita throughout the winter, starting December 28 which can be found right here.