By Jarrod Horak
Opening day at Keeneland doesn’t waste time — the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes is the 9th race on Friday, October 3, 2025 (post time 5:15 PM ET). The $650,000 test for 2-year-old fillies drew a field of six: 1 Percy’s Bar (3-1), 2 Go To Girl (20-1), 3 Tommy Jo (2-5), 4 The Grumpy Rabbit (12-1), 5 Haute Diva (6-1), and 6 Wonzee Weather (30-1).
This isn’t just another juvenile stakes — it’s a Win & You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, plus a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race. In other words, whoever comes out on top here is immediately on the radar for racing’s biggest stages. And while Keeneland is in the spotlight, don’t forget — Santa Anita’s Autumn meet is underway too, and Today’s Racing Digest has free Santa Anita picks and betting guides to give players an edge there as well.
Who’s in the Gate?
- Tommy Joe (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) — The obvious star. She dominated the Spinaway (G1) and comes in as the heavy favorite. Jared’s take: if she repeats that effort, the rest are basically running for second.
- Percy’s Bar — Ultra-consistent filly who’s improved every start, including a runner-up to Tommy Joe last out. Inside draw means she’ll save ground and sit the right trip.
- Grumpy Rabbit — Interesting longshot. She crushed on dirt last time after a turf debut and put up an improved pace rating. Pratt might send her early, and if she’s aggressive, she could hang around a lot longer than her 12-1 morning line suggests.
- Go-To Girl — Took three tries to break her maiden and has been grinding her way forward. Jared noted her final time numbers have bounced around, and stretching out might actually be a negative.
- Hal Diva — Finally broke through on turf, but her dirt tries have been less convincing. If she can’t transfer that turf improvement back to the main track, she’s in trouble.
- Wanzi Weather — Still a maiden and lacks speed. She’ll be far back early, trying to pass them all late. Jared flat-out said she’d need a much faster figure and to prove she even likes dirt. That’s a tough ask.
How to Bet It
This isn’t a win-bet kind of race. At 2-5, Tommy Joe offers zero value, so Jared focused on exotics:
- Exacta: 3 Tommy Joe over 4 Grumpy Rabbit
- Trifecta: 3 Tommy Joe over 1 Percy’s Bar and 4 Grumpy Rabbit
- Superfecta: 3 Tommy Joe over 1 Percy’s Bar, 2 Go-To Girl, and 4 Grumpy Rabbit
The play here is clear: build around the favorite but try to catch a price underneath. Percy’s Bar and Grumpy Rabbit look like the keys to making it pay.
Why Today’s Racing Digest Matters
Jared leaned on Today’s Racing Digest past performances for this breakdown, and it’s easy to see why. Digest tools dig deeper than raw past performances:
- Final Time Ratings that track actual performance across distances.
- Pace Ratings that flag horses capable of controlling or chasing a setup.
- Form Cycle Patterns that show which young horses are trending up (Percy’s Bar, for example) versus those stalling out.
And if you’re looking ahead, Santa Anita’s Autumn Meet is underway — and Digest has you covered with free picks, betting guides, and full-card analysis. Check the free Santa Anita picks here.
Final Word
The Alcibiades is Tommy Joe’s race to lose, but that doesn’t mean there’s no betting value. The smart money is in the exotics, where Percy’s Bar and Grumpy Rabbit can spice things up.
If you’re betting Keeneland or Santa Anita this weekend, don’t just rely on the program — use Today’s Racing Digest for sharper ratings and betting strategies. It’s the edge serious players bring to the track.
Grab your Santa Anita Digest and put the Digest’s Exclusive Data to work.