By Jarrod Horak
The 2026 Preakness Stakes takes place at Laurel Park this year while Pimlico undergoes construction, and this year’s edition shapes up as a fascinating pace and trip handicap. Using the numbers and pace figures from the Digest past performances, I’m looking for the horses most likely to capitalize on what should be an aggressive early pace.
This is my hometown race, and I’ve been following the Preakness since 1980. I’ve covered full Preakness Day cards online since the 1990s, and this race often rewards horses that can adapt to pace pressure while still finishing strongly in the final furlong.
Pace Makes the Race
This year’s Preakness projects to feature a contested early pace with several runners preferring to race forwardly placed. That dynamic could dramatically influence the outcome.
| Horse | Running Style | Key Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Mahal | Front Runner | 152 Pace Rating |
| Napoleon Solo | Speed | 180 Pace Rating |
| Pretty Boy Miah | Forwardly Placed | Back-to-back 143 FTRs |
| Chip Honcho | Pressing Style | 132 Final Time Rating |
| Incredibolt | Closer | 152 Final Time Rating |
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1 – Taj Mahal (5-1)
Taj Mahal improved his Digest numbers in each career start and earned a strong 149 Final Time Rating winning the Tesio Stakes. He blasted out to the early lead despite an outside draw, slowed the pace in the middle stages, and then kicked away again.
From the rail, he figures to go forward again, but unlike the Tesio, he probably won’t get away with relaxing through soft interior fractions. With other speed signed on, the pace pressure should be significantly tougher this time.
2 – Ocelli (6-1)
Ocelli is still a maiden after seven starts, but he outran massive odds in the Kentucky Derby when finishing third at 70-1. He rallied effectively into a collapsing pace and briefly threatened in the stretch before flattening late.
The projected setup helps him again because multiple pace horses should ensure legitimate fractions. The concern is whether he can reproduce that Derby effort while still seeking his first win.
Bettor’s Edge
Closers become far more dangerous in Triple Crown races when several speed horses are committed early. Identifying the likely pace flow is often more important than simply comparing final speed figures.
3 – Crupper (30-1)
Crupper wired the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn and secured his spot here with that victory. His 134 Final Time Rating was respectable, but his 117 Pace Rating suggests he benefited from softer early fractions than he’ll likely encounter in this race.
To stay involved here, he’ll need to show significantly more speed in the opening stages.
4 – Robusta (30-1)
Robusta disappointed badly in the Kentucky Derby after also underperforming in the Santa Anita Derby. His best recent effort came in the San Felipe Stakes when blinkers were added and he earned a 143 Final Time Rating while narrowly missing.
He has tactical speed, but recent races raise serious concerns about whether he’s progressing at the right time.
5 – Talkin (20-1)
Talkin remains lightly raced with some upside potential. He was second in the Champagne Stakes as a juvenile and later finished a distant third in the Blue Grass Stakes.
He’ll get Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for trainer Danny Gargan, and his tactical style should allow him to sit a favorable trip behind the leaders. However, he must improve substantially on speed figures to contend.
6 – Chip Honcho (5-1)
Chip Honcho skipped the Kentucky Derby despite qualifying and instead targeted this race specifically. Jose Ortiz takes the mount after major success during Derby week.
He won the Gun Runner Stakes late last season and nearly captured the Risen Star while earning a 132 Final Time Rating. He fits underneath in exotics, but he still needs another forward move to win.
7 – The Hell We Did (15-1)
This lightly raced colt has shown ability in all four starts and earned a 122 Final Time Rating stretching out in the Lexington Stakes. He showed a strong 143 Pace Rating while contesting the lead.
There’s upside here, but he’ll need another leap forward against deeper competition.
8 – Bull By the Horns (30-1)
Bull By the Horns rallied to win the Rushaway Stakes on synthetic footing, but his 120 Final Time Rating leaves him a bit slower than the top contenders.
He could clunk up for a minor award if the pace melts down, but he still must prove he can duplicate that form on conventional dirt.
9 – Iron Honor (9-2)
Iron Honor won his first two starts, including the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes around one turn. In the Wood Memorial, he broke from post 12, raced wide throughout, and weakened late after chasing a demanding pace.
Trainer Chad Brown removes blinkers here, likely hoping the colt settles better early. Flavien Prat takes over the mount, and Brown has previously won the Preakness with Cloud Computing and Early Voting.
With only three lifetime starts entering the race, Iron Honor still has room for improvement.
Pro Insight
Blinker removal can significantly impact pace behavior. Horses that previously raced too aggressively often become more effective when allowed to settle into rhythm early.
10 – Napoleon Solo (8-1)
Napoleon Solo is one of the major pace players after posting a huge 180 Pace Rating in the Wood Memorial before weakening late. That effort likely came after going too fast too early.
As a two-year-old, he wired the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes with a strong 146 Final Time Rating. If he shakes loose without excessive pressure, he becomes dangerous.
11 – Corona de Oro (30-1)
Corona de Oro tracked the pace and finished third in the Lexington Stakes with a 120 Final Time Rating. He appears honest but still needs to improve significantly against this field.
12 – Incredibolt (5-1)
Incredibolt is the horse I want in this race. He’s one of the best closers in the field, and the projected pace setup should work perfectly in his favor.
He won the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes as a juvenile with a strong closing rally and later captured the Virginia Derby with a sharp 152 Final Time Rating while finishing powerfully through the lane.
In the Kentucky Derby, he finished sixth in a large field and was not beaten far despite facing stretch bumping and pace challenges. Horses losing the Derby often improve in the Preakness two weeks later, especially when the competition is softer and the field size is smaller.
What I like most is his ability to pass horses late, something several rivals in this race have not consistently demonstrated.
13 – Great White (15-1)
Great White was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after flipping behind the gate. His best races have come on synthetic surfaces, and he still must prove he can transfer that form to dirt.
He might benefit from a pace collapse if he is patiently handled, but his dirt form leaves questions unanswered.
14 – Pretty Boy Miah (15-1)
Pretty Boy Miah exits a pair of solid 143 Final Time Ratings in one-turn races at Aqueduct. The concern is the outside draw combined with a potentially punishing pace scenario.
If forced to go hard early from the outside, he could be vulnerable late.