Santa Anita Derby 2024 Contenders and Their Highest FNL RAT Earned

Highest Performance Figures Earned By Each Horse Coming Into the 2024 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita

Santa Anita Derby (G1) | Saturday, April 6, 2024  | Santa Anita | Race #10 | Post Time 4:45 PST

The 2024 Santa Anita Derby pre-entries listed show the highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT) each horse has earned in their past 2 starts.

The horse coming into the Santa Anita Derby with the highest Final Time Rating in the past two starts have won 4 out of the past 6 Santa Anita Derby.

1 Curlin's Kaos 1/27/2024 0:00 SA 5 T MSW 1 83 126 107 123 2
2 Tapalo 2/10/2024 0:00 GG 7 D STK 2 86 121 161 132 1
3 Stronghold 2/18/2024 0:00 SUN 9 D STK 1 94 130 135 140 1
4 Imagination 3/3/2024 0:00 SA 6 D STK 1 91 130 137 135 1
5 Wynstock 12/16/2023 0:00 LRC 9 D STK 1 92 135 135 138 2
6 Tessuto 2/25/2024 0:00 SA 8 D MSW 1 88 122 137 129 1
7 Mc Vay 3/3/2024 0:00 SA 6 D STK 3 77 108 123 114 1
8 E J Won the Cup 3/14/2024 0:00 TUP 7 D STK 1 80 117 135 123 1

Below are the past 6 Santa Anita winners and their highest Final Time Rating coming into the race.

2023 Santa Anita Derby Winner | Practical Move | FNL RAT = 141  | $4.00 Win Payout

2022 Santa Anita Derby Winner | Taiba | FNL RAT =138 | $10.60 Win Payout
(3rd Highest FNL RAT Going Into Santa Anita Derby)

2021 Santa Anita Derby Winner | Rock Your World | FNL RAT = 135 | $12.40 Win Payout

2020 Santa Anita Derby Winner | Honor A.P. | FNL RAT = 146 | $6.40 Win Payout

2019 Santa Anita Derby Winner | Roadster | FNL RAT = 135 | $8.20 Win Payout
(3rd Highest FNL RAT Going Into Santa Anita Derby)

2018 Santa Anita Derby Winner | Justify | FNL RAT = 144 | $3.80 Win Payout


Learn How To Use The Final Time Rating

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

The Final Time Rating can be found in the 2nd to last column in the horses data boxes projected performances in Today's Racing Digest Race Sheets.

The FNL RAT has proven to be a good indicator of a horse's ability to finish strong or to quickly determine which horse might have a big closing kick.  Since, the FNL RAT measures a horse's final time against our track pars, with the daily track variant factored you can easily compare each horses closing ability even if they have run on a different track, distances, and surfaces.

Also included in chart above is the FIRE, CPR and Pace Rating earned in that race.

Expected Final Race Equation (FIRE)
The highest FIRE number each horse is expected to earn in the Pegasus World Cup has predicted the winner in 4 of the 7 times the Pegasus WC has run.  In addition, the horse with the highest expected FIRE has been in the money 4 out of 7 races. The Expected FIRE can be found in the header of the Digest race sheets and is selected by our expert race analyst as the figure they believe the horse will earn in today's race.

Unlike other speed figures which only take into account a horse’s final time, the Fire Number is based on a horse’s speed throughout the race, taking into account each and every time recorded by the horse during the running of the race.  (PAR = 100, 2 points = one length)

Expected Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)
The CPR is especially powerful given that it is more then just a final speed rating which only tells you how fast a horse ran in it’s last race.  The CPR is based on pace, final time and closing fraction.  It is then modified by the track variant (place and track speed) and may be adjusted for an ‘unusual’ pace.  The CPR, with its pace component built in, tends to favor horses with a good mix of speed and stamina.

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)
A rating that shows you the expected pace of the race early for each past performance.  A comparison of this figure with the rest of the field's PAC RAT can give you a better idea of the potential shape of the race.