Del Mar Debutante 2023 Analysis & Video

Dreamfyre goes all the way in the Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar (Benoit Photo)

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante will be run at Del Mar on Saturday, Sept. 9. A full field of 14-horses will face the starter and Tamara is the tepid 7-2 morning line favorite. I will go through the projected race shape and look at the best final time ratings, and my video analysis is included at the bottom of this post.

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Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante – Sept. 9 – Race 10 – 7 furlongs dirt

1 – Julias Dream (5-1) – Ricardo Gonzalez

2 – Next Right Thing (30-1) – Emily Ellingwood

3 – Pretty Layla (30-1) – Drayden Van Dyke

4 – Benedetta (10-1) – Victor Espinoza

5 – Hope Road (12-1) – Tiago Pereira 

6 – Chatalas (5-1) – Jan Hernandez

7 – Dreamfyre (4-1) – Hector Berrios

8 – Pushiness (8-1) – Umberto Rispoli

9 – Tamara (7-2) – Mike Smith

10 – Where’s My Ring (15-1) – Joe Bravo

11 – Motet (50-1) – Abdul Alsagoor 

12 – Gate to Paradise (20-1) – Kent Desormeaux

13 – Laurent (6-1) – Edwin Maldonado 

14 – Cheeky Gal (30-1) – Antonio Fresu

Today’s Racing Digest Pace Ratings – Most Representative Line

Dreamfyre – 147 (6f)

Pushiness – 137 (5.5f)

Chatalas – 135 (5.5f)

Benedetta – 134 (6f)

Hope Road – 123 (6.5f)

Gate to Paradise – 122 (5.5f)

Julias Dream – 114 (5T)

Tamara – 114 (6.5f)

Where’s My Ring – 113 (5.5f)

Cheeky Gal – 108 (6f)

Next Right Thing – 105 (5T)

Pretty Layla – 101 (8T)

Motet – 89 (6f)

Laurent – 68 (5.5f)

Dreamfyre does not strike me as an extended sprinter. She went 21 and change in her first two starts and ran her rivals into the ground. Pushiness is quick as well and the pace almost has to be above par in this event. I am expecting a stalker to win this race, and a deep closer could easily hit the board. 

Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings – Most Representative Line

Dreamfyre – 134 (6f)

Julias Dream – 128 (5T) 

Tamara – 126 (6.5f)

Benedetta – 123 (6f)

Hope Road – 119 (6.5f)

Pushiness – 116 (5.5f)

Laurent – 113 (5.5f)

Where’s My Ring – 113 (5.5f)

Pretty Layla – 111 (5f)

Next Right Thing – 110 (5T)

Chatalas – 108 (5.5f)

Cheeky Gal – 99 (6f)

Motet – 99 (6f)

Gate to Paradise – 93 (5.5f)

Navigating the extended sprint distance is the key to success in this race. This is where we begin sorting out the fleet early bloomers from the developing runners. Dreamyfyre got a good number last time but she might get hooked in a speed duel at a demanding distance in this spot. Julias Dream earned an okay number in her turf sprint bow. She meets other speed and tries to navigate an additional two furlongs on a different surface. Tamara has upside for Richard Mandella. She overcame a stumbling start and the intimidating inside post in her bow. She has tactical speed and a decent kick, and she should get the jump on the closers. $750k purchase Benedetta earned a better number second time out, and she proved that she could stalk and run a quality race. She removes blinkers. 

Jarrod’s Del Mar Debutante Picks (first to last)

1st – Tamara

2nd – Chatalas

3rd – Benedetta

4th – Gate to Paradise

5th – Laurent

6th – Hope Road

7th – Dreamfyre

8th – Julias Dream

9th – Pushiness

10th – Pretty Layla

11th – Where’s My Ring

12th – Cheeky Gal

13th – Next Right Thing

14th – Motet

I wanted to explain why I am using two runners from the same July 30 race despite a low speed rating. I liked the Chatalas race from a visual standpoint and have decided to upgrade that performance. That race earned a low number but all of these are so lightly raced and can improve rapidly without warning. Chatalas is well connected and the daughter of Gun Runner might continue to develop as distances increase. Leading rider Juan Hernandez sticks with her and Mark Glatt has been on a roll recently. She projects a stalking trip. Gate to Paradise was third in that July 30 affair. John Shirreffs is strong with second timers and they paid $950k for the Arrogate filly. I also remember Shirreffs doing something very similar last year. He ran his maiden second timer Skinner in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last summer, and he rallied for the show at 13-1 odds. Laurent might be the best closer in this race and she should get pace to chase.  

Jarrod’s Del Mar Debutante Wagers

#9 to win

Exacta box 6-9

Trifecta 6-9/4-5-6-9-12-13/12-13