Sam F. Davis Stakes 2024 Picks

Graded turf hero Agate Road switches surfaces in Sam F. Davis (NYRA Photo)

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 continues at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, February 10, and I have included Sam F. Davis Stakes 2024 picks below. The Grade 3 event for 3-year-olds has a $250,000 purse and the twelve entrants will be journeying 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The Sam F. Davis is the 10th race on Feb. 10 and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Derby points (20-10-6-4-2). 

Sam F. Davis Stakes 2024 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Patriot Spirit removed blinkers and defeated Saturday’s rival Crazy Mason in the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay last time. He stretches out in distance and should impact the pace under Samy Camacho.

Crazy Mason rallied for the place in the Inaugural Stakes at six panels on Dec. 2, and stretched out and scored as the favorite in a slow early/fast late optional-claiming race on Jan. 14. He should be finishing in his third start after a layoff.

Agate Road rallied to miss by a nose in a race originally scheduled for turf and run at one mile on the main track at Saratoga last summer. He switched to turf and was strong visually in a slow early/fast late affair as the chalk second time out. He rolled home again from off the pace in the Grade 2 Pilgrim, and rallied mildly to finish 5th of 11 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. He got the wrong setup in a runner-up finish as the 1-2 favorite in a slow early/fast late renewal of the Dance Beach at one mile on turf on Jan. 6. He has been training forwardly on dirt and scratched out of last Saturday’s Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy at 1 1/16 miles on turf to go in this Derby points race. 

Copper Tax was 5-for-6 with a neck defeat heading into the Grade 2 Remsen, and he raced wide from an outer post and ended up 6th of 10 in a better than appears effort. Gary Capuano is a sharp conditioner and this one fired a one mile bullet for this Jan. 23. He might bounce back at playable odds.   

Change of Command romped as the strong favorite in a special weight sprint at seven panels on Dec. 17, and battled on the pace and prevailed by a neck in an optional-claiming route on Jan. 5. Those races were at Gulfstream and Shug McGaughey’s $1 million purchase loses lasix and adds blinkers, and he should be forwardly placed. 

West Saratoga sat in midpack and rallied for the win at 12-1 odds in the first Derby points race in the Grade 3 Iroquois last September. He stalked and weakened to 5th of 11 in his final juvenile outing the Breeders’ Futurity (beaten 11 lengths). He returned in the Pasco at seven panels on Jan. 13, and he stalked from the inside post and landed the place behind runaway winner Book’em Danno. The $11k Exaggerator colt stretches back out in his second start after a layoff.  

The Sam F. Davis field is completed by El Principito, Tireless, No More Time, Everdoit, Fulmineo, and Elysian Meadows.

Sam F. Davis Stakes 2024 Picks

The Sam F. Davis Stakes is my 19th video on the road to Kentucky Derby 2024, and my top choices have four wins, four runner-up finishes, and five show finishes. I will cover each points race on the Kentucky Derby trail. Check out my Sam F. Davis Stakes 2024 picks video below.