Road to Kentucky Oaks 2024: Pocahontas Stakes 

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes will be run at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Sept. 16. Nine juvenile fillies entered this flat mile contest and this is the first road to Kentucky Oaks 2024 points race. I will look at pace ratings and final time ratings, rank the contenders first to last, and share my wagering strategies. 

Click here for Churchill Downs Racing Picks, Tips, and Insider Analysis 

Grade 3 Pocahontas – Sept. 16 – Race 7 – One mile dirt

1 – Empire Island (5-1) – Ricardo Santana Jr. 

2 – Peignoir (20-1) – Luan Machado

3 – Riperton (12-1) – Cristian Torres

4 – Raining Sugar (20-1) – James Graham

5 – Regal Rumor (12-1) – Mickaelle Michel

6 – V V’s Dream (5-2) – Brian Hernandez Jr. 

7 – Youalmosthadme (2-1) – Tyler Gaffalione

8 – Courbe (10-1) – Rafael Bejarano

9 – Hot Beach (7-2) – Flavien Prat

Today’s Racing Digest Pace Ratings – Most Representative Line

Youalmosthadme – 143 (KY Juvenile – 5f – May 4)

Hot Beach – 135 (MSW – 5f – July 7)

Riperton – 132 (Debutante – 7f – Aug. 13)

Peignoir – 129 (MSW – 8f – Aug. 26)

Empire Island – 126 (MSW – 6f – Aug. 6)

Raining Sugar – 125 (MSW – 5.5f – Aug. 4)

Regal Rumor – 125 (MSW – 6f – Aug. 26)

Courbe – 123 (MSW – 7f – Aug. 18)

V V’s Dream – 102 (MSW – 5f – May 19)

Youalmosthadme stumbled at the start and lost her early advantage in a show finish on Aug. 13. She set the pace and aired in her first two starts, and she looks like the target if she has a clean getaway under her winning rider Tyler Gaffalione.  There are multiple stalkers in this spot, and V V’s Dream is probably the best closer. 

Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings – Most Representative Line

V V’s Dream – 122 (Debutante – 6f – July 2)

Hot Beach – 120 (Debutante – 7f – Aug. 13) 

Riperton – 114 (Debutante – 7f – Aug. 13)

Empire Island – 113 (MSW – 6f – Aug. 6)

Regal Rumor – 113 (MSW – 6f – Aug. 26)

Youalmosthadme – 111 (Debutante – 7f – Aug. 13)

Courbe – 108 (MSW – 7f – Aug. 18)

Peignoir – 101 (MSW – 8f – Aug. 26)

Raining Sugar – 98 (MSW – 5.5f – Aug. 4)

V V’s Dream elevated her Digest final rating 12 points second time out. McPeek saddled the winner of this race in 2015, 2016, and 2022, and this filly might run past this group with another forward move. Hot Beach ran faster second time out and projects a stalking trip while out in the clear. Youalmosthadme earned 111’s twice and a 149 second time out. I think she is better than 111 but not as fast as the 149. Splitting the difference makes her a win contender, and she might get brave if able to shake loose early. Empire Island has upside after a solid debut run at Saratoga. 

Jarrod’s Pocahontas Picks (first to last)

1st – V V’s Dream

2nd – Youalmosthadme

3rd – Hot Beach

4th – Empire Island

5th – Riperton

6th – Courbe

7th – Regal Rumor

8th – Peignoir

9th – Raining Sugar

Jarrod’s Pocahontas Wagers

#6 to win

Exacta Box 6-7

Trifecta 6-7/1-6-7-9/1-6-7-9