2024 Kentucky Derby Contender Just Steel

Current Rank	Total Points Earned	Earnings	Trainer
11	65	$193,550	D. Lukas

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Just Steel’s Prep Race that earned their highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date:  3/30/2024  Track:  Oaklawn Park

Race #:  12

Distance:  9 Furlongs

Conditions: stakes

Surface: Dirt

Trainer:  D. Lukas

Jockey:  Keith Asmussen

Track Condition:  FAST

Track Variant:  5

Finish Position: 2nd

Win Payout:  $0

Place: Payout:  $16.2

Show Payout:  $6.8

Trouble Notes:  forwardly placed 4w 1st, 2nd flight no late gain, clear 2nd

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Race Replay for Just Steel – Oaklawn Park –  3/30/2024

 

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Just Steel’s Prep Race Performance Analysis

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Just Steel Prep Race Race Class Level: 165

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Digest has converted each race condition to an easy to use numeric figure called the Race Class Level. The higher the number the more difficult the race.  (5pts = 1 Class Level)

Since the Kentucky Derby is the most competitive race for 3 year olds at this point in the year it should be the most competitive race they will have faced.  Today’s Racing Digest assigns a RCL of 200 to the Kentucky Derby and while most horses will not have raced at this level yet it’s important to look at the Digest Datalines in the Race Sheets to see what Race Class Levels they have been competitive in (top 3 finish positions) recently and how have they performed in recent jumps up in class.

Additional information on a Just Steel previous Race Class Level performances can be found in the Header Box in the Digest Race Sheets.  This information includes  Recent Race Level (RRL) which is the Race Level of Just Steel last race.  Recent Competition Level (RCL) which is the Race Level Just Steel has recently been competitive (finished 5th or better and within 5 lengths of the winner) within the last 90 days. Highest Proven Class Level (PAST CLAS) which shows the highest Race Level which Just Steel has been effective previously (2-year-old races are not considered) This let’s you know how classy a horse once was. (found in column 13 of the race sheet header).

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Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Just Steel’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 134

Average FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 and 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 151

The Digest’s exclusive Final Time Ratings (FNL RAT) give you a better idea of the potential late pace of the race by seeing which horses can finish strong or might have a big closing kick. This figure measures of a horse’s final time against our track pars, with the daily track variant factored in so you can easily compare it with other horses and past performances.  A horse equaling the track par for the distance would earn a 150 Final Time Rating. Three points are deduced for each length slower than par.

Outside of the 2022 winner Rich Strike (top Final Time Rating of 137), the previous 8 Kentucky Derby winners had a top Final Time Rating of at least 146 and two of them had a top Final Time Rating of 158 (Always Dreaming and Maximum Security(DQ’ed from 1st)). The Final Time Rating is the last number on the right of each horse’s past races found in the Data Lines which you can find in the Complete Digest.

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Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Just Steel’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 111

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 150

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 169

Pace Rating (PAC RAT): A rating that shows you the expected pace of the race early for each past performance. A comparison of this figure with the rest of the field’s PAC RAT can give you a better idea of the potential shape of the race.

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Fast Figs

Just Steel’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 122

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 130

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs are an AI generated Figure that combines speed, pace, and the strength of the field in one powerful rating making it easy to find top contenders in each race.

We have been tracking Fast Figs nationally since 2018 and the top Fast Fig has produced the Kentucky Derby winner three times, one place, and one third place finisher.

A strong strategy for using Fast Figs are to look for runners within five points of the top Fast Fig. 2023 Mage ($32.42 Win Payout) was within 2 points of the highest Fast Fig and 3 of the 4 top Fast Figs were in the money 2022, runner-up and 3rd place finishers Epicenter and Zandon were within five points of the winner 2021 winner Medina Spirit was within five points of the top Fast Fig

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Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Just Steel’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 140

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 140

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The CPR is based on pace, final time and closing fraction. It is then modified by the track variant (place and track speed) and may be adjusted for an ‘unusual’ pace. The CPR, with its pace component built in, tends to favor horses with a good mix of speed and stamina. Learn More

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Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Just Steel’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 86

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number stands for FInal Race Equation. It is a true velocity rating that accounts for a horse’s speed during the entire race; not just the final time. (PAR = 100, 2 points = one length) You can find the FIRE number in the Digest Data Lines for every runner in the race (up to 10 races back) in the Race Sheets in the Complete Digest. You won’t find the FIRE number anywhere else and you can use it to your advantage by finding overlooked runners to cash big tickets!

Looking at past Kentucky Derby’s since 2016, the top three FIRE number has produced four winners,  four runner-ups and one win. 2016-Exaggerator 107(2nd); Gun Runner (3rd); Mohaymen (4th) 2017-Irish War Cry 104(10th); Always Dreaming (1st); Girvin (13th) 2018-Audible 106 (3rd); Good Magic (2nd); Vino Russo(9th) 2019-Spinoff 108 (18th); Country House (2nd-won by DQ); Game Winner (6th-moved up to 5th via DQ) 2020-Tiz The Law 103 (2nd); Authentic (1st); NY Traffic (8th) 2021-Mandaloun 100 (2nd); Essential Quality (4th); Helium (8th) 2022-White Abarrio 110 (16th); Charge It (17th); Simplification (4th) 2023- Mage  98 (1st), Two Phil’s 96 (2nd), Angel of Empire 98 (3rd) Learn More

 

Helpful Tip:  So that it’s easy for you to compare a horse’s past performance, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures for the Kentucky Derby and all other upcoming races are based on how we expect the horse to perform in that race regardless of any changes in race conditions.  Learn More: