Fayette Stakes 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 2, $350,000 Fayette Stakes will be run at Keeneland on Saturday, October 26, 2024. The ten entrants will travel 1 1/8 miles on the main track and Hit Show is the 2-1 morning line favorite. The Grade 2 Fayette goes as the eighth race on Saturday with a scheduled post time of 4:44 p.m. EDT.

Fayette Stakes field: 1 – Trademark (10-1), 2 – Tumbarumba (6-1), 3 – Uno Mas Bourbon (15-1), 4 – War Campaign (8-1), 5 – Bolzy (30-1), 6 – Rattle N Roll (4-1), 7 – Heroic Move (6-1), 8 – Hit Show (2-1), 9 – Grand Aspen (10-1), 10 – Howling Time (15-1).

Fayette Stakes Analysis

#8 Hit Show (2-1) exits back-to-back graded wins in the West Virginia Governor’s (G3) and Lukas Classic (G2). Brad Cox’s sharp colt is 1-for-1 at Keeneland and 3-for-7 at 1 1/8 miles. Florent Geroux has been his pilot this year and he is 3-for-4 in 2024. He projects a stalking trip and is the one to beat based on his positional speed and recent numbers.

#6 Rattle N Roll (4-1) returned from a long layoff and ran on for the show in the Lukas Classic (G2) in the slop Sept. 28. He won the local Ben Ali (G3) last year, and also captured the Pimlico Special (G3) and Blame (G3) in 2023, and was a close second in the Stephen Foster (G1). He tailed off in two stakes routes after that and went to the sidelines for a year. He has won twice at this course and distance and will try to get involved late in a race with a murky pace scenario.

#2 Tumbarumba (6-1) might be the inside speed in a race lacking early pace players. He is 1-for-1 at Keeneland and he hit the board in both starts at this distance. He is most effective at shorter distances but might get brave if able to shake loose early under Luis Saez.

#9 Grand Aspen (10-1) had his 6-race trifecta streak come to an end when finishing 11th of 12 (beaten 50 lengths) in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in January. Jonathan Thomas is his new trainer and he is capable of impacting the pace from an outer post. He pressed and scored in an off the turf affair at this distance last November, and he pressed, led, and missed by a neck in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) in his final 2023 start. 

Fayette Stakes Wagers

#8 to win

Exacta box 6-8

Trifecta 6-8/2-6-8-9/2-6-8-9

Fayette Stakes Video