Dowager Stakes 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The Grade 3, $300,000 Dowager Stakes will be run at Keeneland on Sunday, October 20, 2024. The full field of fillies and mares will travel 1 1/2 miles on the turf course and Neecie Marie is the 3-1 morning line favorite. The Grade 3 Dowager goes as the eighth race on Sunday with a scheduled post time of 4:44 p.m. EDT.

Dowager Stakes field: 1 – Three Priests (8-1), 2 – Cozee Rags (50-1), 3 – Anatolian (20-1), 4 – Forever After All (20-1), 5 – Duvet Day (20-1), 6 – Surprisingly (6-1), 7 – Chop Chop (5-1), 8 – Mrs. Astor (30-1), 9 – Eternal Hope (4-1), 10- Let’sbefrankbaby (8-1), 11 – Atomic Blonde (10-1), 12 – Neecie Marie (3-1), Also-Eligibles: 13 – Embrace Me (30-1), 14 – Heart Spin (30-1)

Dowager Stakes Analysis

#6 Surprisingly (6-1) is a dangerous early-pressing contender for Irad Ortiz Jr. and Todd Pletcher. She stalked the pace and finished a close second in her lone try at this distance in the Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream Park March 30. She finished out of the top three in her last four starts at shorter distances. She stalked and failed to quicken in her last two graded turf starts at 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/16 miles. This distance helps her cause and look out if she gets into a comfortable early-pressing rhythm, and she might get brave if able to control the pace.

#9 Eternal Hope (4-1) gets the services of Frankie Dettori and Charles Appleby’s 4-year-old filly still has upside in her third start of the year. She beat Sunday’s morning line favorite Neecie Marie in the Jockey Club Oaks and Sands Point (G2) last fall, and finished fourth in both graded turf routes this year. She sports four local turf works for this and might perk up for sharp connections.

#12 Neecie Marie (3-1) exits a sharp turf route stakes win at Kentucky Downs. That was her first win since the Beaugay (G3) in May and she is 6-for-14 overall. This is her first start at 1 1/2 miles and she should handle the added ground based on her late running neck defeat in the 2023 Jockey Club Oaks at 1 3/8 miles. 

#7 Chop Chop (5-1) has positional speed and she handles this course and distance. In her lone turf try at Keeneland, she stalked and scored by 2 1/4 lengths in the Bewitch (G3) at 1 1/2 miles in the spring.

Dowager Stakes Wagers

#6 to win

Exacta box 6-9

Trifecta 6-9/6-7-9-12/6-7-9-12

Dowager Stakes Video