Kentucky Oaks 2024 Update (4-29-24)

By Jarrod Horak

The field has been set for the 2024 Kentucky Oaks. Fourteen entrants plus a pair of also-eligibles passed the entry box and Tarifa is the tepid 7-2 morning line favorite. 

The connections of Group 3 UAE Oaks winner Manama Gold did not put up the $25,000 supplemental fee to make her eligible for the Oaks. The other late move was the addition of Regulatory Risk to the field. The Gazelle (G3) runner-up got back into the Oaks conversation after a good workout at Belmont Park (training track) on April 20. 

Our Pretty Woman is the first also-eligible and needs one defection to run. It looked like she was in the field prior to the Manama Gold and Regulatory Risk decisions. Candied is the second also-eligible, and she will get in if two horses drop out.  

Kentucky Oaks 2024 Points Race Results 

Pocahontas (10-5-3-2-1) – Sep. 16 – Winner: V V’s Dream ($4.40)

Alcibiades (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 6 – Winner: Candied ($10.16)

Frizette (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Just F Y I ($11.60)

Chandelier (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Chatalas ($8.20)

Rags to Riches (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 29 – Winner: West Sunset ($17.72)

BC Juvenile Fillies (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 3 – Winner: Just F Y I ($16.00)

Golden Rod (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 25 – Winner: Intricate ($14.66)

Demoiselle (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 2 – Winner: Life Talk (4.00)

Starlet (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 9 – Winner: Nothing Like You ($6.20)

Untapable (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 23 – Winner: Alpine Princess ($5.40)

Sant Ynez (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 7 – Winner: Kopion ($2.40) 

Busanda (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 13 – Winner: Gin Gin ($7.60)

Silverbulletday (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 20 – Winner: West Omaha ($3.80)

Forward Gal (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Winner: R Harper Rose ($6.40)

Martha Washington (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Winner: Band of Gold ($50.60)

Las Virgenes (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 10 – Winner: Kinza ($4.00)

Suncoast (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 10 – Winner: Power Squeeze ($8.00)

Rachel Alexandra (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 17 – Winner: Tarifa ($7.00)

Sunland Park Oaks (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 18 – Winner: Recharge ($6.60)

UAE Oaks (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 23 – Winner: Manama Gold ($2.20)

Honeybee (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 24 – Winner: Lemon Muffin ($58.20)

Cincinnati Trophy (20-10-6-4-2) – March 1 – Winner: Maxisuperfly ($48.36)

Busher (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2 – Winner: Jody’s Pride ($3.90)

Davona Dale (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2 – Winner: Fiona’s Magic ($20.20)

Santa Ysabel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 9 – Winner: Kinza ($3.00)

FG Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 23 – Winner: Tarifa ($5.00)

Bourbonette Oaks (50-25-15-10-5) – March 23 – Winner: Everland ($24.10)

GP Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 30 – Winner: Power Squeeze ($24.00)

Fantasy (100-50-25-15-10) – March 30 – Winner: Thorpedo Anna ($7.40)

Ashland (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5 – Winner: Leslie’s Rose ($20.90)

Gazelle (100-50-25-15-10) – April 6 – Where’s My Ring ($7.10)

SA Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – April 6 – Nothing Like You ($16.40)

—————

Top 16 Kentucky Oaks 2024 Points Leaders (thru 4-29-24)

Tarifa 150 points

Where’s My Ring 125 points

Power Squeeze 120 points

Leslie’s Rose 115 points

Thorpedo Anna 105 points

Just F Y I 90 points

Gin Gin 66 points

Fiona’s Magic 60 points

Regulatory Risk 55 points

Tapit Jenallie 54 points

Everland 54 points

Lemon Muffin 50 points

Into Champagne 50 points

Ways and Means   50 points

—————

Our Pretty Woman 50 points

Candied  34 points

Jarrod Horak’s Final Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2024 Contenders (4-29-24)

#1 – TARIFA (Bernardini – Kite Beach, by Awesome Again) – Trainer: Brad Cox

Comments: Worked in company with Gin Gin on April 26. The latter had the early advantage, but Tarifa was outside and drew even. They went a half in 47.51 and five panels in 59.20 (2/25), and were out 6f in 1:11.54. Gin Gin was credited with 5f in 59.60. Tarifa should be highly competitive if she is able to relax early. She can get rank and headstrong, and the quicker Flavien Prat can get her to settle, the better her chances.  She drew post 8 and is the Kentucky oaks morning line favorite.

#2 – JUST F Y I (Justify – Star Act, by Street Cry) – Trainer: Bill Mott

Comments: She has had a few good weeks since a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Ashland on April 5. She worked at Churchill on April 16, April 22, and April 28. The latter move was a half-mile in 49.40 (38.60). She looked energetic while going out in 1:02.40. She has post 13 for the Oaks, and note that she won the BC Juvenile Fillies from post 12. She has the early-pressing versatility to work out a trip from an outer post. 

#3 – WAYS AND MEANS (Practical Joke – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward) – Trainer: Chad Brown

Comments: She might have the most raw talent in the field. Her half-mile bullet in 46.20 (1/68) at Churchill was powerful, and she was full of energy. She was out 6f in 1:11.89 and did much more than Chad Brown wanted her to. You just have to think that she will be all over the pace after this work, and based on troubled trips stalking the pace in her last pair, they might just let her roll from the gate.  

#4 – LESLIE’S ROSE  (Into Mischief – Wildwood Rose-IRE, by Galileo-IRE) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Comments:  She breezed a half-mile in 49.40 (29/37) on April 25 (opening 1/4 in 25.75). She was out 5f in 1:02.03 and 6f in 1:14.18. This is the kind of work I like to see before a big race. Slow early, pick up the pace in the middle, and gallop out with energy. Mission accomplished, and this was one of the better works of the week for the Oaks contenders. She will have to overcome post 14 in the Oaks after enjoying a patient inner trip in the Ashland.  

#5 – THORPEDO ANNA (Fast Anna, Sataves, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Ken McPeek

Comments: She has been solid in her morning appearances for Ken McPeek, but not as flashy as some of the other top contenders. She worked in company on April 26, breezing five panels in 59.40 (3/25) and out in 1:12.79. I like post 5 for her and a stalking trip is likely. Which way does she go after winning the Fantasy? That was her first start after a layoff and she needs to move forward a bit to win this.