Kentucky Derby 2024 Update (4-30-24)

By Jarrod Horak

The field for Kentucky Derby 2024 was drawn on April 27. Twenty horses plus two also-eligibles passed the entry box. In a late development on April 30, Encino was injured and had to scratch out of the Derby, and that allowed first alternate Epic Ride to move into the body of the race. Mugatu is the first alternative now and needs one defection to get in. 

Kentucky Derby 2024 Points Race Results

Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 16 – Winner: West Saratoga ($26.96)

Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Timberlake ($11.80)

American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Muth ($2.80)

Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Locked ($3.52)

Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 29 – Winner: Liberal Arts ($14.18)

BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 3 – Winner: Fierceness ($35.00)

Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 25 – Winner: Honor Marie ($19.62)

Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 3 – Winner: Dornoch ($5.40)

Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 15 – Winner: Otto the Conqueror ($4.80)

Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 16 – Winner: Wynstock ($29.40)

Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 23 – Winner: Track Phantom ($11.80)

Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 1 – Winner: Catching Freedom ($5.40)

Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 6 – Winner: Drum Roll Please ($3.20)

Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 20 – Winner: Track Phantom ($4.80)

Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Uncle Heavy ($20.60)

Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Winner: Nysos ($2.20) 

Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Winner: Mystik Dan ($24.80)

Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 3 – Winner: Hades ($20.20)

Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 10 – Winner: No More Time ($8.60)

Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 17 – Winner: Sierra Leone ($7.40)

Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 18 – Winner: Stronghold ($4.40)

Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 24 – Winner: Timberlake ($3.60)

Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2 – Winner: Dornoch ($2.40)

Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2 – Winner: Deterministic ($9.80)

John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – March 2 – Winner: Encino ($13.38)

San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2 – Winner: Imagination ($3.80) 

Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 9 – Winner: Domestic Product (non-wagering event)

Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 23 – Winner: Endlessly ($4.88)

Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 23 – Winner: Catching Freedom ($8.60)

Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 30 – Winner: Fierceness ($4.20)

UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 30 – Winner: Forever Young ($3.20)

Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 30 – Winner: Muth ($6.60)

Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 6 – Winner: Sierra Leone ($5.32) 

SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 6 – Winner: Stronghold ($6.40)

Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 6 – Winner: Resilience ($11.00)

Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 13 – Winner: Encino ($8.62)

Top 21 Kentucky Derby 2024 Points Leaders (thru 4-30-24)

T O Password (Japan Qualifier)

Sierra Leone (155 points)

Fierceness (136 points)

Catching Freedom, Stronghold (125 points)

Resilience (110 Points)

Forever Young, Endlessly (100 points)

Dornoch, Just a Touch (75 points)

Track Phantom (70 points)

West Saratoga (67 points)

Just Steel, Honor Marie (65 points)

Domestic Product (60 points)

Catalytic, Society Man (50 points)

Mystik Dan (46 points)

Grand Mo the First (40 points)

Epic Ride (35 points)

—————

Mugatu (14 points)

Jarrod Horak’s Final “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2024 Contenders (4-30-24)

1 – Sierra Leone (Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Chad Brown –  Last Ranking (1)

Comments: He has been my number one Derby contender since early February. The Grade 1 Blue Grass hero had a strong work at Keeneland on April 20. His final Derby work was in company with Domestic Product at Churchill Downs on April 27. Sierra Leone worked on the inside and they went 25.24 and 36.54, and completed 5f in 1:00.20 (15/58). They galloped out a strong 6f in 1:12.87. Domestic Product is a fast worker and was able to test Sierra Leone in this spot. It was a very nice work for both, and this Gun Runner colt was reaching out with his head down low and was bounding along with his large stride. He drew post 2 for the Derby and is the 3-1 second choice.  

2 – Fierceness (City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (2)

Comments: He is the fastest horse in the paper race and has been working super since his Florida Derby (G1) romp. His final Derby work occurred at Churchill Downs on April 26 and it was the most impressive of all Derby drills. He breezed an easy half-mile in 48.80 (43/68). The time of the drill was nothing special, but the gallop out was excellent. He was out 5f in 1:00.51, 6f in 1:12.50, and 7f in 1:26.11. He was much the best in this team drill with Agate Road and he got stronger as the work progressed. This is exactly what they were looking for, and the Derby favorite got a desired outer post (gate 16 after scratch of Encino).

3 – Just a Touch (Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (3)

Comments: He holds steady at number three and continues to look good in his morning activity. I thought his solo move on April 27 was rock solid. He went the opening half in 48 and was timed in 1:00.80 (26/58) for 5f. He was out 6f in 1:13 and change. He might be able to work out a comfortable stalking trip from post 8 in the Derby. 

4 – Catching Freedom (Constitution – Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (4)

Comments: Not as impressive as his recently injured stablemate Encino in a team drill on April 27. His final work was actually fast but Encino is clearly the more accomplished horse in the morning. He will break from post 4 in the Derby and will probably be somewhere near the middle of the pack before launching his rally under excellent Derby pilot Flavien Prat. 

5 – Forever Young (Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats) – Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi – Last Ranking (5)

Comments: Slow 6f work in 1:19.60 (1/1) at Churchill on April 24, and went 5f in 1:03 (2/3) on April 30. He has not impressed from a visual standpoint since arriving in Kentucky. 

6 – Stronghold (Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed) – Trainer: Phil D’Amato –  Last Ranking (6)

Comments: Will need to work out a trip from post 17 in the Derby. He worked in company with turf sprint stakes winner Motorious on April 28. They traveled 3f in 35.71 and 5f in 1:00.80 (3/16). They galloped out 6f in 1:13.56. 

7 – Honor Marie (Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike) – Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman –  Last Ranking (7)

Comments: Fired a 5f bullet in 59.20 (1/11) at Churchill on April 25. They opened the work in 35.15 and galloped out 6f in 1:12.78 and 1:27.89. The closer showed surprising early interest in this lively move. His workmate was sprinter Agoo and that probably helped this one get involved earlier. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill last fall and his affinity for the Kentucky oval might lead to a minor award. 

8 – Domestic Product (Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter) – Trainer: Chad Brown –  Last Ranking (8)

Comments: Has not raced since winning a slow early/fast late edition of the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. He has been more relaxed in his races since removing blinkers this year. He has worked six times since his last start and fired bullets on two occasions. I discussed his team drill with stablemate Sierra Leone above. He is a live Derby longshot. 

9 – Resilience (Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (9)

Comments: Improved with the addition of blinkers in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He had a nice maintenance breeze on April 28. He went 25.02 and a half-mile in 49.20 (37.60), and finished with nice energy on the gallop out (1:14.94). 

10 – Mystik Dan (Goldencents – Ma’am, by Colonel John) – Trainer: Ken McPeek – Last Ranking (12)

Comments: He worked in company with a decent MSW winner. They breezed 3f in 36.19 and 5f in 1:01.20 (35/58). The gallop out was 1:13.89. This was a maintenance move and this one is hard to gauge. He was sensational in the mud in the Southwest (G3), and crashed back to earth in an okay show finish in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. He landed post 3 in the Derby and will probably try to pounce from midpack. 

11 – Just Steel (Justify – Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock) – Trainer: Wayne Lukas –  Last Ranking (9)

Comments: He had a slow half-mile move in 50.40 (52/60) at Churchill on April 28. He worked a mile in 1:40 flat on April 20. Wayne Lukas knows how to win the Kentucky Derby and this experienced colt is fairly reliable and figures to stalk the pace. 

Next Nine: 

(12) Track Phantom – 47.21, 5f in 1:00.00 (5/16), out 6f in 1:13.74 – April 28

(13) Dornoch – 22.94 and 47.03 (21/30). Out 5f in 59.58 and 6f in 1:12.27 in this fast early work (in company w/Society Man) – April 27 

(14) Endlessly – Improved half-mile move in 47.80 (19/68) on April 26. 

(15) Catalytic – 4f in 47.80 (13/60), out 5f in 1:00.87 and 6f in 1:14.37 (April 28)

(16) Society Man – See Dornoch for details on April 27 work. 

(17) Grand Mo the First – 6f in 1:16.46 (2/2) at Gulfstream on April 23. 

(18) West Saratoga – Easy 3f move in 37.20 (8/27), out in 50.78 on April 27. 

(19) T O Password – 4f in 46.80 (1/2) at Churchill Downs on April 30. 

(20) Epic Ride – 4f in 51.20 (22/23) at The Thoroughbred Center in Lexington on April 26.