2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

Final Gambit

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 8

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 100

Total Earnings To Date: 520639

Trainer: Brad Cox

 

Prep Race Breakdown: Final Gambit’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 22-Mar-25
Track: Turfway Park
Race #: 12
Distance: 9 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 11
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $32.14
Place Payout: $12.78
Show Payout: $8.4

Race Recap Analysis:

Final Gambit had a solid performance in his prep race on March 22, 2025, at Turf Paradise, where he ran in Race 12. Despite a rough start, being bumped at the break and shuffled back to 12th place in a 12-horse field, he made a remarkable comeback. He rallied from the back and made a strong move around the turn, eventually closing with authority to win by 1½ lengths. His victory in this race earned him 100 qualifying points, which secured his spot in the Kentucky Derby.

The question to ask is how did Final Gambit perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 1

Win Payout: $32.14

Place: Payout: $12.78

Show Payout: $8.4

 

Race Replay for Final Gambit – Turfway Park – 22-Mar-25

 

Final Gambit’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

Final Gambit Prep Race Race Class Level: 160

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of Final Gambit’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on Final Gambit’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready Final Gambit is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Final Gambit’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 141

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well Final Gambit is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

Final Gambit’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 99

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

Final Gambit’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 126

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 126

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

Final Gambit’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 142

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 142

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

Final Gambit’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 82

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How Final Gambit’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from Final Gambit’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well Final Gambit may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Looking ahead to the Derby, Final Gambit’s strong closing ability stands out. His impressive finish shows he can handle a crowded field, which is important in a 20-horse race. Additionally, his performance at 1? miles in the prep race suggests he has the stamina needed for the Kentucky Derby’s 1¼-mile distance. However, there are some concerns. All of his races so far have been on synthetic or turf surfaces, and the Derby is run on dirt. His times in the prep race were also slower compared to some of the other top contenders, which raises doubts about how he’ll perform in a faster-paced Derby. While Final Gambit’s victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks demonstrates his potential, his lack of dirt experience and the slower race times leave questions about his ability to compete with the top Derby horses.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare Final Gambit’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: