2025 Kentucky Derby Contender

American Promise

Current Rank In Kentucky Derby Points: 16

Total Kentucky Derby Points Earned: 55

Total Earnings To Date: 444874

Trainer: D. Lukas

 

Prep Race Breakdown: American Promise’s Highest Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

Race Date: 15-Mar-25
Track: CNL
Race #: 9
Distance: 9 Furlongs
Race Conditions: STK
Surface: D
Trainer: D. Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Track Condition: FT
Track Variant: 22
Finish Position: 1
Win Payout: $16.8
Place Payout: $8.2
Show Payout: $5.4

Race Recap Analysis:

American Promise, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Nik Juarez, dominated the 1?-mile race, setting a new track record with a time of 1:46.41. He won by an impressive 7¾ lengths, leaving the competition in the dust. The field included notable contenders like Getaway Car and Render Judgment, but none could challenge American Promise’s commanding lead. This victory was a significant step up for American Promise, who had previously shown promise in maiden and allowance races. His ability to handle the 1?-mile distance and set a new track record indicates he’s ready for the longer 1¼-mile challenge of the Kentucky Derby. The fast track at Colonial Downs didn’t seem to faze him, suggesting he can adapt to varying track conditions. ?

The question to ask is how did American Promise perform in this prep race and can he repeat or improve on this performance in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Finish Position: 1

Win Payout: $16.8

Place: Payout: $8.2

Show Payout: $5.4

 

Race Replay for American Promise – CNL – 15-Mar-25

 

American Promise’s Performance Metrics: A Deeper Look

Race Class Levels (RCL)

American Promise Prep Race Race Class Level: 155

Kentucky Derby Race Class Level: 200

The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of 3-year-old racing, so it’s essential to compare the class level of American Promise’s prep race against the Derby’s challenging field. The Digest’s Race Class Levels simplify this comparison with a numeric scale. The higher the number, the tougher the competition.

Check the Race Sheets for insights on American Promise’s performance in past races and how it stacks up against competitors. Recent Race Level and Recent Competition Level (RCL) data help assess how ready American Promise is for the big stage.

 

Final Time Rating (FNL RAT)

American Promise’s Final Time Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 143

Avg FNL RAT Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 148

The Final Time Rating gives a snapshot of how well American Promise is expected to close. A higher FNL RAT suggests strong finishing potential, essential in the Derby’s competitive final stretch. Historically, Kentucky Derby winners have posted a FNL RAT of 146 or higher.

For comparison, past Derby winners such as Always Dreaming and Maximum Security hit 158!

Mystic Dan, the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner entered the race with the highest FNL RAT Earned being a 137.

 

Pace Rating (PAC RAT)

American Promise’s Pace Rating Earned In This Prep Race: 186

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 144

Avg Pace Rating Earned In Past 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 161

Pace plays a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The Pace Rating reflects how quickly a horse sets or reacts to the race tempo. A strong PAC RAT indicates the ability to adapt to different paces, a key trait in the Kentucky Derby.

 

Fast Figs

American Promise’s Fast Fig Earned In This Prep Race: 128

Fast Fig Par For This Prep Race: 126

Fast Fig Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 132

Average Fast Fig earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 133

Fast Figs blend speed, pace, and field strength into one figure, making them a powerful tool in identifying potential Derby winners. A strong Fast Fig often signals a competitive contender. For instance, last year’s Mage was just 2 points off the highest Fast Fig and came through with a stunning win at 32-1.

 

Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR)

American Promise’s CPR Earned In This Prep Race: 104

CPR Par For This Prep Race: 104

CPR Par for Kentucky Derby: 140

Average CPR earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 131

Average CPR earned by the winner of the last 7 Kentucky Derby’s: 136

CPR combines a horse’s pace, final time, and closing ability, factoring in track conditions for an all-around performance measure. Horses with a solid CPR have the stamina and speed necessary for the demanding Derby distance.

 

Final Race Equation (FIRE #)

American Promise’s FIRE Earned In This Prep Race: 98

Average FIRE earned by the winner in the last 3 Kentucky Derby’s: 135

Average FIRE earned by the winner of the last 8 Kentucky Derby’s: 134

The FIRE number reflects overall race velocity, not just final time, factoring in a horse’s speed throughout the entire race. A top FIRE score often predicts a strong overall performance, especially in high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby.

 

How American Promise’s Prep Race Performance Could Signal Derby Success

Looking at the key performance metrics from American Promise’s prep race, we can assess their potential to thrive in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Time Ratings, Pace Ratings, Fast Figs, and CPR all provide insight into how well American Promise may handle the Derby’s challenging conditions.

Sired by Triple Crown winner Justify, American Promise has the pedigree to handle the demands of the Kentucky Derby. His dam, Tapella, adds further stamina to his lineage. With Lukas at the helm and Juarez in the saddle, he has a strong team guiding him toward the Derby. American Promise’s impressive win in the Virginia Derby has positioned him as a legitimate contender for the Kentucky Derby. His ability to set a fast pace and maintain it over a longer distance is a valuable asset in a 20-horse field. If he continues to develop and adapt to the challenges of the Derby trail, he could be a serious threat on race day.

 

Helpful Tip: To compare American Promise’s potential against the competition, Today’s Racing Digest’s Performance Figures predict how each horse will perform, regardless of changing race conditions. Check out the Race Sheets for the most accurate, up-to-date analysis. Learn More: